Elephant in the room and other thoughts
First, I am neither thrilled nor horrified by the Obama campaign's strategy and tactics to this point. Anyone can have an opinion on such things, and I doubt much can be proved about what works. The "ground game," get out the vote, etc., is much easier to quantify (and control), and so is worth devoting lots of resources to, as I'm glad to see Obama is doing.
I have no problem with people posting suggestions as to improved strategy. But we need to be clear-headed about a major factor in this election that neither Obama nor we can do anything about, that's in poll results, and will be there on election day, before we demoralize ourselves and each other.
The simple fact is that a large but unknown number of Americans, White, but also Hispanic and Asian, simply will not vote for a black person for president. An even larger number might, but blackness is a negative for them, greater or smaller. This second group is open to persuasion, and in fact how many are persuaded will decide the election. That's what the campaign, and all of us where we can, have to do. But best case, many will not be persuaded.
While Obama's blackness obviously helps him with Blacks and a few others, the net effect is certainly negative and large. The idea I've heard that racists are all hard-core Republicans anyway is ludicrous. Anyone who's ever spent time with large numbers of non-liberal intellectual White Americans in the suburbs of typical blue states knows this as well as I. I'm 42, and was raised in a mostly Jewish neighborhood in an outlying part of New York City (Queens). The level of racism among kids I knew (down to a few years younger than me) would probably shock some people here. The "N" word was a standard way to refer to black people (older folks said "schvartze"). The overwhelming majority simply believed that black people were genetically inferior, and particularly less intelligent and more violent. They were disliked if not hated, and feared. There might be some "good ones," and you might even vote for one, but in general they were threatening, both personally and politically. My friends and I were no worse certainly, than our parents, but no better either. Our grandparents were a bit worse. I'm not so in touch with these people anymore, but I've no doubt most have not changed their views substantially. The Catholic kids in nearby neighborhoods were at least as bad. And everything I've learned since says that the same is true in Detroit, and St. Louis, and whoknowswhere, Pennsylania, and all across all the swing states. The under 30 crowd seems better, but they certainly have their racists too, and they're a minority of voters.
My point in all this is that Obama can certainly win, but he's not going to win big, and he's not going to open a big lead in the polls, even if he runs the most brilliant campaign ever. So we can't expect it, and shouldn't run around in circles screaming about how his campaign sucks when it doesn't happen. His campaign needs to be better than Kerry's just to eke out a victory. Under the circumstances, 52% would be a landslide.
So let's work hard and push the campaign to be better. But keep our expectations grounded in reality.
I have no problem with people posting suggestions as to improved strategy. But we need to be clear-headed about a major factor in this election that neither Obama nor we can do anything about, that's in poll results, and will be there on election day, before we demoralize ourselves and each other.
The simple fact is that a large but unknown number of Americans, White, but also Hispanic and Asian, simply will not vote for a black person for president. An even larger number might, but blackness is a negative for them, greater or smaller. This second group is open to persuasion, and in fact how many are persuaded will decide the election. That's what the campaign, and all of us where we can, have to do. But best case, many will not be persuaded.
While Obama's blackness obviously helps him with Blacks and a few others, the net effect is certainly negative and large. The idea I've heard that racists are all hard-core Republicans anyway is ludicrous. Anyone who's ever spent time with large numbers of non-liberal intellectual White Americans in the suburbs of typical blue states knows this as well as I. I'm 42, and was raised in a mostly Jewish neighborhood in an outlying part of New York City (Queens). The level of racism among kids I knew (down to a few years younger than me) would probably shock some people here. The "N" word was a standard way to refer to black people (older folks said "schvartze"). The overwhelming majority simply believed that black people were genetically inferior, and particularly less intelligent and more violent. They were disliked if not hated, and feared. There might be some "good ones," and you might even vote for one, but in general they were threatening, both personally and politically. My friends and I were no worse certainly, than our parents, but no better either. Our grandparents were a bit worse. I'm not so in touch with these people anymore, but I've no doubt most have not changed their views substantially. The Catholic kids in nearby neighborhoods were at least as bad. And everything I've learned since says that the same is true in Detroit, and St. Louis, and whoknowswhere, Pennsylania, and all across all the swing states. The under 30 crowd seems better, but they certainly have their racists too, and they're a minority of voters.
My point in all this is that Obama can certainly win, but he's not going to win big, and he's not going to open a big lead in the polls, even if he runs the most brilliant campaign ever. So we can't expect it, and shouldn't run around in circles screaming about how his campaign sucks when it doesn't happen. His campaign needs to be better than Kerry's just to eke out a victory. Under the circumstances, 52% would be a landslide.
So let's work hard and push the campaign to be better. But keep our expectations grounded in reality.
