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I have a confession to make
I believe the most important news story now and for the foreseeable future is the economy. And I believe it's TPM's responsibility to report on that story.
But I can't bring myself to read about it anymore. The ins and outs of financial dealings have always confused me and they're even more confusing now. No matter how much I try to wrap my head around it, I can't. I used to read everything I could find about the crisis but it didn't help me understand. I have no idea what should be done to deal with the problem so there's nothing I can contribute to the conversation here and nothing I can say to my senators or congressman (Steve King, as if he'd listen to sense if I had any to offer).
I feel like the situation is hopeless - no amount of money they throw at the banking system is going to solve anything and no one in Washington has the will to do anything else.
So I just don't read the articles anymore. If I see a headline about an economic story, I skip the article. Sometimes sticking your head in the sand is the only way to save your sanity. My sanity is fragile enough already.
But I can't bring myself to read about it anymore. The ins and outs of financial dealings have always confused me and they're even more confusing now. No matter how much I try to wrap my head around it, I can't. I used to read everything I could find about the crisis but it didn't help me understand. I have no idea what should be done to deal with the problem so there's nothing I can contribute to the conversation here and nothing I can say to my senators or congressman (Steve King, as if he'd listen to sense if I had any to offer).
I feel like the situation is hopeless - no amount of money they throw at the banking system is going to solve anything and no one in Washington has the will to do anything else.
So I just don't read the articles anymore. If I see a headline about an economic story, I skip the article. Sometimes sticking your head in the sand is the only way to save your sanity. My sanity is fragile enough already.
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Debbie, I feel exactly the same way. I am an NPR junkie, but I don't listen during the day anymore because it's all they talk about. I can't listen passively and accomplish work at the same time because listening to the discussion totally stresses me out.
March 9, 2009 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Debbie, here's an article that might help you feel better.
http://blog.rivertwice.com/2009/02/17/enough-already/#more-48
Lee Gibson
March 9, 2009 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Lee. That helps keep it in perspective. From the link:
So yes, millions are losing their jobs and their homes and we are struggling to figure out what is real and what was fueled by debt dreams. And yet, there isn’t mass starvation, mass homelessness, imminent physical danger, certainly not in those parts of the world that are suffering the most from this credit crisis - the United States, Europe, Japan. The fears and hysteria are based on more intangible issues, though the fear of total loss of home and livelihood and health is just as intense.
While we need to respect that this is a pivotal moment for us all, we also need to halt this pernicious slide into unrelenting negativism. We need to say “enough already,” and recognize that we are hardly the first generation to face challenges, and that a dysfunctional financial system is not of the same order as war, pestilence, and social chaos. The economy contracting by 4% or 5% for a few months is a shock, but it is not an excuse for announcing our collective obituary, unless, of course, we want to dance on the abyss and court disaster.
March 9, 2009 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry.... I did not find it cheery in the least!
March 9, 2009 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't say it made me cheery but it gave me some perspective. For the time being, I have plenty to eat and a warm place to sleep every night. There was a time in my life when I was in immediate danger of losing those things but I don't feel like I'm in immediate danger now.
March 9, 2009 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't find it comforting either. "A dysfunctional financial system" may not be "of the same order as war, pestilence, and social chaos," but it's a known catalyst to precisely those sequelae. Think wheelbarrows full of valueless cash in Weimar Germany.
March 10, 2009 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Debbie. Let me join the club! Yes, this is the most important issue. But no, I can hardly bring myself to look at it anymore!
We need to name our syndrome.
Financial Meltdown Fatigue? FMF for short?
March 9, 2009 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about Financial Mind Fuck?
March 9, 2009 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even better! The value of brainstorming. And having a more specialized vocabulary. ;)
March 9, 2009 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am usually forced to begin all my comments with:
I do not know how to solve the banking crisis in this country.
Because I don't. I read Dr. Reich and Dr. Krugman because they are liberals, they usually write and speak in English, they are not afraid of repubs, and they believe that government should have a social agenda.
Otherwise:
The End.
March 9, 2009 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I need to start with: I do understand the financial crisis - and I hear experts don't either...
March 9, 2009 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry... I should have previewed: I do NOT understand....
March 9, 2009 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
hahhaha.
March 9, 2009 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Refreshingly honest and very original; on the subject of the economy, everyone has an opinion and it's rarely their own.
March 9, 2009 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Debbie - I have a different problem: I enjoy reading about the wonky theoretical complexity of the financial issues. But I mostly can't bring myself to hear and see the stories about the concrete implications - lost jobs and homes - it has for people. Those are the times I want to stick my head in the sand.
Just a piece of advice - like Dick says - stick to people whose values and expertise you trust and who can explain the issues clearly.
Trust them, and then call your congressman. Remember, that to them, behind every angry caller there is a silent seething army of discontent. It has an effect.
March 9, 2009 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sadly, Debbie, the news is probably going to get worse before it gets better, and for quite some time.
But there are plenty of well-renowned economists who were sounding the recession alarm long before it actually hit (i.e. Krugman), so I trust their word very much when they give tips about how to get the country out of it. In that sense, I agree with the other commenters above. Stick with those rational voices.
March 9, 2009 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to confess the same thing. I tried. I really did. I couldn't figure out what was going on myself so I looked for somebody to explain it to me clearly. A few attempted, but I'm so dense about the subject, it was of no use.
So, this is the conclusion I came to: NOBODY knows what is going on with the economy. If they knew, an understandable explanation to the masses wouldn't be so elusive. All the experts have are best guesses.
I have reached the point where I am basing my outlook on a few realities.
92% of us still are working at jobs. (Yeah, I know about reduced work hours and low wages.)
Autos are still rolling off assembly lines.(Slooowly)
People are still buying cars. (About half as many as last year, but they're buying!)
Farmers will plant crops in the spring.
Farmers will harvest in the fall.
Kids will need new shoes for school in 6 months.
Machines grind to a halt, but human beings don't. We're alive. We're vital. We're gonna keep on keeping on regardless of what the economy does.
We just have to keep an eye on one another so no 93 year old veteran doesn't freeze to death in his own home again.
I'm waiting it out, because that's the only thing I can figure out to do.
March 9, 2009 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keeping an eye on each other - that's so important. So often it seems like the people with the greatest need are the most invisible. The ones who are getting all the attention - the bankers and traders and CEOs - will never have to worry about having a warm place to sleep at night.
March 9, 2009 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is an explanation, but it is complex, and the book won't be written for a few years.
Think of it as a car wreck on the interstate off-ramp. The ramp was designed years ago and was overloaded; the drivers were driving too fast; one of them was distracted; the weather was bad and the street was slick; it was sunset and the sun broke through to blind another driver who had stopped off for a cocktail to ease his way home.
Whose fault. Follow each element and see where it leads. Clearly the speeder was dumb, the drinker was culpable, the highway authority knew it was just a matter of time, and the public didn't complain about bad design or agree to pay taxes to fix things. And the best watchmaker will end up with a roll for the actions of fate.
The model of the law (there is one person who did it, and he happens to be the one with the money) is misleading. That doesn't mean everyone is excused from responsibility; it does mean that it takes a watchmaker (old sense) to see what really happened.
March 9, 2009 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Josh posted a pretty-good explanation of our fiasco at TPM. What he didn't mention is the fact that those who have created the chaos have been chosen to calm the storm. Those who screwed us do not limit themselves to screwing the middle class. They, also, maintain a bevy of whores in Washington, D.C.. Debbie...Tell me you didn't vote for King! I wish Grassley and King would quit identifying with Iowa this or Iowa that. Call me a hay seed living in the fly-over zone, but don't identify me with "them!"
March 9, 2009 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Im with you DDN in not understanding whats happening or what to do about it.The words of a very wise man named Paul the Apostle have helped me tremendously, mabe they will help you:
"In lowliness of mind let each ESTEEM other better than themselves.Look not every man on his own things, but also on the things of others." Phillipians 2:3 . It seems that when we esteem or value others lives as much as we value our own,or
higher yet,even more than our own, then we tend to look after their needs (things) above our own. Their hurt becomes our hurt, their hunger becomes our hunger,their needs become our needs. Together then we share one anothers burdens.A burden shared becomes half the burden it was.In this modern world one who esteems others lives above their own,and risk their own lives for the sake of another are called heros and are rare, but they shouldnt be.Dont be afraid, I sense the heart of a hero in you.
March 9, 2009 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me vote for King? lol I'm certifiably crazy but I'm not THAT crazy.
I didn't vote for Grassley either. I don't agree with him on much but at least he's not stupid.
March 9, 2009 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh good Debbie. I was hoping you were not confessing to be that Debbie who does Dallas.
March 9, 2009 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I plead the fifth on that one.
March 10, 2009 5:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you, debbie, and the others that this is too complex to really know what needs to be done to correct it. On the economics end, I tend to put my faith in Krugman, Reich and others who I feel have the same worldview as I (or close to it). It's really all I can do.
What becomes really apparent, however, is that so much of the problem is worsened by the lack of confidence in the people. For this, I think we all need to somehow gain some perspective, even if it is to understand that there is only ONE person in the whole world who is worse off than anybody else on the planet, and chances are pretty good that I'm not it.
At risk of an accusation of self-promotion, I point out a blog essay I recently did on the topic, here. It's probably the closest I can come to making recommendation on how we might best confront this challenge.
March 9, 2009 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm afraid of the sadness reflected in the neo- Dorthea Lange photography that will arise if something is not done correctly.
March 10, 2009 4:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am not so sure it is all that complicated. Too many people owe the extremely wealthy too much money. Their debt is to the point they can't pay the interest so the wealthy are foreclosing. That hurts us all, because it effects the economy as a whole.
March 10, 2009 7:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is not that difficult on the surface. Our economy hitched its star to a weak dollar and rising asset values. Complex instruments were created to maximize gains which in turn maximized risk. The credit rating on these instruments were artificially minted. It was a ponzi scheme, and the net value of wealth at risk if the pyramid crumbed is worth around 300% of the combined real wealth of the entire world.
Now the dollar is strengthening and values are diminishing. Those who are owed money from these imploding instruments are going to purchase assests hand over fist and will thrive in this environment of suffering.
You ahould understand and be angry. Do not turn your mind off. To do so is to pay attention to shadow instead of substance.
March 10, 2009 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
So what exactly do you call a problem that is so big that it could destroy everything but no one knows what it is? It is big, everyone agrees on that. But no one knows how big. If you ask them “How big” then they start to talk. Then someone disagrees and they start to argue. Then others join in, saying things about how big parts of “it” are without saying what “it” is. This just adds confusion because the people who talk about the parts can’t tell you how many parts “it” has. If you listen to this conversation “it” gets bigger then smaller then bigger again and on and on. Makes you wonder if “it” is incorporeal.
There are experts on the structures of things of course and they will have their say. Some say “it” is big, some say “It is really big” and some say “It is unimaginably big.” If you press them as to what to call “it” they say “Well it is a problem,” which is not helpful at all.
Ordinary people talk about “it” too. They mostly say that “it” is a problem but they really don’t have any idea what to do about it. For them “it’ is a problem that does not appear to have a solution, kind of like a coin that has only one side. Of course ordinary people should not be expected to necessarily know the answer to my question but they do need an answer. This need creates a lot of ideas about things that may or may not be relevant because they don’t know what “it” is.
So again, “What exactly do you call a problem that is so big that it could destroy everything but no one knows what it is?”
Ask Captain Smith I guess. You know, the captain of the Titanic.
March 10, 2009 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
The incipient meltdown has created a fish-eye, hallucinatory perception of everything: the core idea being that there are no held truths.
This builds on some of the ground-is-shaking surprise that accompanied 9/11 - certain basic assumptions don't hold true. As a New Yorker I proceeded from late 1993 until 9/01 thinking (to the extent that I thought about it) that processes in place for criminal investigation and surveillance of hostile domestic activity were sound - I mean we rounded those guys up and determined in short order what had happened. You might get away with that in Dakkar, buddy, but don't try it in New York. Yeah, right. Cops and firemen unable to walkie-talkie each other eight years later. Thwarted efforts by FBI agents to get the CIA to read the tea leaves about known conspiracy participants. Etc.
Fast forward - no processes for financial analysis, even among experts, enable forecasting of the scope of this unfolding disaster. Alan Greenspan and Robert Reich doing eyebrow-raised hands-in-the-air shrugs at the idea that they should have seen something coming. Jon Stewart's iconic riff last week on network finance bloviators and their baseless speculations (funny but not funny).
This sense that there are no reliable forecasters for critical forthcoming problems began for me with a sense that there was no real competence in the area of national security-focused intelligence. Now it extends to the idea that there are no adult minds with hands on the wheel in competently controlling macroeconomic activity, and there haven't been for some time.
Dare we even talk about global warming, from this perspective?
As Ripley said (in essence) in Alien 3 when she realized there were no weapons at the prison - "Well, then, we're fucked!"
March 10, 2009 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
That’s about it all right.
I recently suggested that the national government may be depressed, if such a thing is possible. Imagine if you will that we were having this conversation in a lounge on the Titanic. We both agree that there is no one in the wheelhouse. What are our choices? Well we can start ordering double shots or we can go out on deck and read the instructions on the life boats.
March 10, 2009 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read Krugman, Debbie. He's very clear and will give you other sources that are clear. Actually, part of the reason Obama's administration is being vague about some things is that they are trying to unscramble some of what is going on also. But don't believe you can't grasp this situation. Always rely on yourself to critically think things through. If more Americans had been able to do that over the years we'd be in a lot better shape and not have been bamboozled about Vietnam, Reagan, WMD, etc.
March 10, 2009 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Deb, it's ok for one of us to stick our head in the sand, but when the government does it, the Wall Street book-cookers take advantage.
One thing no one says often enough is that this mess didn't come from your normal, everyday economic business, it came from unregulated money-grubbing no-bid book-cookers who gamed the system, and even paid the dealer to deal them all aces, and still they are losing.
If our watchdog agencies had been watching and using even those little baby teeth they had for enforcement, none of this would have happened.
But we have a DC infected by K-Street and K-Street is managed by Wall Street and Wall Street is run by liars, sneaks and cheaters.
With a chain of command like that, it is no wonder our house is divided.
Seriously, had the Bush era watchdogs not so willingly buried their own heads in the sand, we would not be facing this impending crisis, at least not in the world-economy-devastating version we see today.
March 10, 2009 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
PS; If mommy leaves the cookie jar open then takes a nap, wouldn't you just expect the children to munch away?
As long as there is no threat of criminal charges, or fines and penalties severe enough to dent their bottom line, the book-cookers arre glad to fool their shareholders and the general public.
It is only the threat that stops them, their own consciences, like those cookie-loving children of the sleeping mother, tell them that, as long as the cookie jar is lidless, and Mom's sleeping, those cookies are for immediate and furious consumption.
The pace of their pernicious plundering heated up drastically throughout Bush's two terms. And now it is boiling over.
March 10, 2009 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I too am discouraged by the economic news every day, but I am more discouraged by the fact that this crisis is being treated as a legitimate business gone awry (even if it was very bad judgment). The reality is that every banker that was involved in the credit default swap business is a criminal. Credit Default Swaps are simply a way to insure something but avoid calling it insurance. The reason to avoid it was to dodge the legal requirements of insurance. The steps down this trail start ajnd end with criminal greed.
1. There is money to be made in bundling mortgages, so lets write lots of mortgages to bundle.
2. Lend to people who can't afford the loan so we can make money, lie if you have to.
3. Now we can't sell the bad mortgages. . . unless we insure them. . . if we don't call it insurance we don't have to actually have the ability to honor the commitment and we can charge whatever we want. . . to keep the feds off us we will call these insurance policies "derivatives" . . . and we will claim that normal people just don't understand the "derivatives" market. . . Now were in great shape cause people will pay us for the insurance (ka-ching)and it allows us to sell the bad mortgages (ka-ching squared)everyone wins. . . money for nothing
4. Now we need even more mortgages to sell because the world is overflowing with capital . . . lend lend lend
5. There aren't enough home loans, lets sell the "insurance" to people who don't want to buy any mortgage investments, they just want to bet on the likelihood of the crappy mortgages going bad . . . we love it cause we sell more "insurance" which is really just 100% profit since we don't actually have any regulatory body overseeing us
6. By 2007 we know that that we have provided guarantees for amounts that exceed our worth by at least 10,000%, and that the guarantees are therefore worthless, as are the sub-prime mortgages that we made to "Donald Duck" and "Ulysses R. Amoron" but we keep selling them. Hell, no one wants to be the first person to jump off the money train. Ethics be damned, I want a house in the Hamptons.
7. Global FInancial Crisis, who could have seen this coming? We need a taxpayer bailout.
Every step involved a criminal act. Every step required the willing participation of financial "professionals" who are supposed to be bright enough to see the need for reality in the market and chose instead to sell worthless securities or buy them. They did this because their next quarterly bonus depended upon them keeping the carousel moving and because the first person off the carousel would bring it to a screeching halt. Scams only work with the help of the scammed, and the scammers and the scammees were both working to keep the money train rolling, even if it required lying cheating and stealing to do so.
Don't fall for the BS that this is a complicated problem, there is nothing new here, it is theft by deception, on an unprecedented scale, but simple theft by deception.
March 10, 2009 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink