this posting on TPM Election Central).
The straightforward calculation of electoral votes gives the following scores:
Obama - McCain 280-258
Clinton - McCain 276 - 262
But Survey USA attributes electoral wins even when the difference is too small to interpret in any direction. For example, in New Jersey, Obama and McCain have 43% each but McCain gets the win; similarly, in Michigan: Clinton and McCain have 44% percent each, but Clinton gets the win.
That's why I did the following analysis, which I believe does a better job at capturing the image of the general election.
Case A:
If we consider states where the difference is at most 5% to be
tossups and we keep only victories of 6% or more, then the scores are:
Obama 238 McCain 122 (116 difference) with 170 up for grabs
Clinton 229 McCain 177 (52 difference) with 132 up for grabs
Case B:
If instead we consider states where the difference is at most 3% to
be tossups and we keep only victories of 4% or more, then the scores
are:
Obama 246 McCain 174 (72 difference) with 118 up for grabs
Clinton 250 McCain 223 (27 difference) with 65 up for grabs
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