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Iran: stop and take a deep breath

In regard to the Iranian elections, I think it would be wise to pause before jumping on any bandwagon.
The western media reaction is beginning to remind me a bit of all those "(choose color) Springs", that the CIA organizes here and there, from time to time.
I am surprised at how much footage of police brutality is being freely filmed by western journalists and how freely they are allowed to beam this footage out of Iran. My experience of dictatorships tells me that this sort of thing is not typical of dictatorial behavior. (check Burma etc)
If I was going to make a "dark" reading of all of this, I might come to a tentative conclusion: that if someone wanted to start a war with Iran, this media frenzy would be just the sort of agit-prop to prepare western public opinion for something "surgical".
We lived through this same "Hitler of the month" thing with Bush and his neocons in the run up to the war in Iraq. This might be similar, only much better done this time.
In short, I don't trust US corporate media, or its "opinion makers" any more now than I did then.
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I can respect that sentiment. It does, though, look like the MSM is catastrophically failing to cover the situation at all, let alone propagandise much. A lot of stuff is coming from the "citizen journalists" though naturally one must keep in mind that the opposition undoubtedly inflates (or just does not know) the level of its support, the meaningfulness of its actions etc.
And you have to keep in mind that, if war/bombing of Iran is desired, Ahmadinejad is (likely) the better man to leave at the helm.
Either way, just the fact that there are protests of a reasonably large scale going on gives much hope for the near future of Iran.
June 14, 2009 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iran is a very complicated and alive country, which we don't understand. The people there we understand are westernized and give us an incorrect slant. That is what happened with the Shah too. Let's wait and see what the "bazaar" says.
June 14, 2009 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
David -
Rather than listening to MSM which in truth isn't covering this very well. Pay attention to what is coming off the street. Sullivan has done a reasonably good job of it as has Juan Cole. The reality, we may never know what the truth is about this election. The truth of the matter, we cannot look at Iran the same way e view the rest of the Arab world since it is not Arab, but Persian and there is a vast difference.
June 14, 2009 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree David. Most of us know far too little about the attitudes of the Iranian people--especially those outside the educated, urban classes in Tehran--to draw hasty conclusions.
June 14, 2009 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
In my youth ca 1976, I was indavertently exposed to Iranian grad students plotting the overthrow of the Shah. As a veteran of the rampant paranoia about the federales, informants & infiltration that suffused the hardcore activist environs of Berkeley, Oakland, SF, Davis etc, I was initially stunned by the magnitudes of greater fearfulness and caution displayed by the Iranians.
My Jewish informant educated me about the Israeli-trained Shah's Savak that was allowed to operate freely in the USofA by the American authorities. Unfortunately, my informant guiltily told her Iranian husband that she had spilled the beans to me which resulted in an abrubt end to our friendship. Even my heartfelt promises of willful blindness (to their secret meetings) and silence had no effect.
She took the risk to say "goodbye" as I was packing my car to move out-of-state. She was also preparing to move, to Iran, and dismissed my concerns that her Jewish background would add to the risks.
I sometimes think of them and wonder.....
If the current student revolutionaries adopt the chillingly fierce and implacable determination of their predecessors, the regime has reason to fear. They should know.
June 14, 2009 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the few things that I am sure of and understand in this situation is that the government of Israel, and those they influence, would like the USA to attack Iran. Up till now there has been little or no enthusiasm in the USA for doing so. How to "create" that enthusiasm? Stay tuned.
June 15, 2009 1:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
The demonization of Iran has been a part of our ongoing media narrative for quite awhile. I will be interested to see how the unrest is used to frame the meme that the poor Iranians really do want US to attack their country in order help them change the regime. A side benefit would be that we can take care of the little nuke problemo at the same time.
Here is Col Pat Lang's take:
"Ahmadinajad's win is bad news unless you are looking forward to the day when the US goes to war with Iran. Israeli propaganda will continue to program the American public in preparation for that day. They have been doing very well in this effort so far. The media outlets and media friends are busy every day inculcating the idea that Iran is a deadly threat and must be "stopped." The effort to discredit US intelligence is also progressing nicely. The goal there is to gain general acceptance in the US of the notion that Israeli intelligence is better, smarter, more effective than US intelligence and therefore the Israeli estimate of the Iranian "menace" should govern decisions.
If nothing interrupts the progress of this "informational" campaign the US will attack Iran at some not too far distant time, not tomorrow, not next week, maybe not net month, but, soon. The "end of the year" now takes on greater meaning."
and:
"I stand by my opinion that with or without [Dennis] Ross, Israeli agitprop and information operations in America are so successful in creating their own image of Iran that war has become a virtual certainty once the process of indoctrinating Americans is complete."
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/
There are multipart efforts to form opinion on Iran, the public perception is only one of them. The efforts to place certain advisors into positions of influence within the adminstration's infrastructure are another. The placement of certain persons within the USG policymaking apparatus is one of AIPAC's central goals.
The campaign to insure that Chas Freeman was not allowed to be in a position of influence within the Obama administration was the most blatant example of the determination to shape the intelligence picture of Iran as noted by Lang, above. The second round of efforts to oust General Jim Jones is another manisfestation of the aims of those seeking war on Iran.
Tellingly, the American sources for the disinfo campaign against Jones are people within the administration at the State Dept, Dept of Defense (?), the National Security Council and on the staff of the WH. The Israelis despise Jones; particularily the IDF officials that have met with him.
The control over what information reaches the President is the top priority; the public perception of Iran-as-a-threat-so-bombs-away! is important but somewhat secondary.
If Obama isn't convinced that an attack on Iran is the only option, it doesn't matter what the public thinks at this point in time. However, the goal of attacking Iran is a long-term strategy, so conditioning of the American public to favor that option has been ongoing in anticipation of that eventuality.
June 15, 2009 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like Iraq, Afghanistan, we get as stated above a slanted POV from people who are in exile, or from people who studied here and stayed. They have little authenticity about the situation, as much as I would if I grew up in France, and left ten years ago. And, I only spoke to those who also left.
I think this was probably necessary.
June 14, 2009 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're being far too conspiratorial, David.
Try using Freud's Observation: Sometimes massive amounts of protest footage are just massive amounts of protest footage.
Then polish it with Occam's Razor. Which is more likely: CIA hires thousands of extras in Iranian capital for anti-Ahmadinejad protests, or foreign media and citizen journalists manage to smuggle out a few megabytes of actual footage?
June 15, 2009 1:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good comment!
Clarification:
I am perfectly willing to consider the Iranian election a massive fraud. I have never considered Iran a democracy in the western sense and truth to tell, I don't much care. And no, I don't think that the CIA has created the the Tehran demonstrations, although it wouldn't be the first time that they had done so (Mosaddeq?). What I am concerned about is any media frenzy that builds toward another military adventure. The Israelis really want the USA to attack Iran and is it too conspiratorial of me to think that they have a lot of influence in the MSM? I probably got that erroneous idea in the run up to Iraq.
June 15, 2009 2:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, David's point about true dictatorships - like Burma and North Korea - virtually quarantining all news coverage of their countries is quite pertinent, as is the comparison to Iran's relatively open airing of its post-election upheavals. I don't think Iran's government is quite the demon we're constantly told it is, at least not to Iranians. For all his insults tweaking the West, Ahmadinejad is quite the populist, extending medical and insurance benefits to working poor in Iran. Fact is, he probably won fairly.
June 15, 2009 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
When you say that you believe that Ahmadinejad "won," do you mean that you believe that he received more votes than any other candidate or that he received more than 50% of the ballots cast?
Big difference!
June 15, 2009 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good comment Ellen, but I have even a darker reading now then when I wrote this piece, Find it here.
June 15, 2009 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Much as Obama would prefer to negotiate with the more sophisticated, less bombastic Mousavi, it's clear that the West has to accept whomever the Iranian powers-that-be put forward as their front man.
If it's Ahmadinejad, the issue of his legitimacy will be irrelevant, just as George Bush's was during his first term.
My advice to Mousavi would be, if you're not able to overturn the electoral verdict (and you're not), try to keep at least some of your powder dry. Provoking harsher repression is not in anyone's interest.
June 15, 2009 5:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wise words.
June 15, 2009 6:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm really not sure what you're trying to say. Should we stop paying attention to this major news event, or should we refrain from having an opinion just yet?
The dubiousness of this election, and the resulting civil unrest, doesn't strike me as a manufactured pretext for invasion. It's not as if opponents of Ahmadinejad, including myself, are just bitter about losing. It seems to me the voting patterns, timing, and other aspects surrounding the election were very bizarre indeed, and it should surprise no one if the election turns out to have been rigged. These protests are justified, the social rift inside Iran is real, and we should all care about what happens.
After Iraq, we have learned that we should be aware of patriotic militarism, especially following traumatic, fear-inducing events (such as 9/11). I don't, however, think for that reason that we should diminish our interest or our involvement in international events. In fact, we should encourage international scrutiny of foreign governments, especially when it comes to elections, to hold governments accountable. We can fight our militaristic streak without sacrificing our involvement in important international affairs.
Finally, more specific to this election, I don't think this questionable election outcome is even close to something that might convince Obama or an EU member to invade. Sure, there might be sanctions or warnings. But with Obama being so painstakingly strategic in his outreach to the Muslim world, and with leaders all around the world near-unanimously condemning the unilateral US invasion of Iraq, it is going to take a heck of a lot more than this--something like an attack on Israel-- to get US forces on Iranian soil.
June 15, 2009 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
The run up to Iraq made a bit paranoid I'm afraid, and all those who whooped up that war, haven't folded their tents or committed harakiri either, they are still with us. I simply don't trust the intentions of the US media, not then, not now.
June 15, 2009 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you there. I only wish the BBC could be respected across the political spectrum for being the brilliant, authoritative news service that it is. I do think, though, that the lessons of the Iraq War are not completely lost on most Americans.
June 15, 2009 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
don't miss this from Tom Engelhardt
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175083/the_ir_af_pak_war
June 15, 2009 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is an interesting article from the WaPo
The Iranian People Speak
June 15, 2009 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink