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Iran: keeping our eye on the ball
With our 24x7 news cycle it is easy to miss the forest for the trees.
Right now the question for me in evaluating the situation in Iran is if the serious disturbances are spreading beyond Tehran. How about Moussavi's home town for starters? If the serious (read violent) protests begin to spread all over the country, then I will begin to think that this is all something 100% genuine, impossible to manipulate.
At the moment all I really see is a battle between two Ayatollahs: Kameini and Rafsanjani, using surrogates. At this point Kameini is ahead on points.
The best write-up of the whole thing that I have seen so far comes from the Asia Times.
What I do know for sure is that there are two stories here:
- What is actually happening in Iran and
- How it is being reported here in the west.
What I see is that my point two is pushing Bibi Netanyahu and his version of a Palestinian "state" off the front pages.
It is a good thing to remember that while Iran, in reality, actually poses no threat to Israel's existence (Persians are not suicidal), a free, sovereign Palestinian state in "Judea and Samaria" does. or at least to Bibi's version of it.
In my opinion most the furor over Iran in the western press, now and before, can be explained by this simple fact. The whole "Iran is a threat to the world", could easily be a massive red herring.
In my opinion most the furor over Iran in the western press, now and before, can be explained by this simple fact. The whole "Iran is a threat to the world", could easily be a massive red herring.
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The question isn't whether 'Persians' are suicidal. The question is whether whichever Mullah has his finger on the nuclear trigger is suicidal.
Too many people in the U.S. believe in End Times. I'm terribly uncomfortable with any religion which emphasizes martyrdom as a route to heaven.
June 16, 2009 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
We had a president who actually believed in the "Last Days" in the White House for eight years and he had more atom bombs than anybody anywhere and to top it off he was an alcoholic and an idiot and no atom bombs were set off.
Nothing about the Persians says "crazy" in my book.
"Atomic" Iran is just a canard to take attention away from what the Israelis are doing to the Palestinians.
June 16, 2009 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can someone please explain the reactions US politicians have towards Iran? I want to go there next year, and so does my wife. Why should we be so afraid of these people?
I personally, excluding the years 2001-2008, when we were told to fear them, don't follow why Americans should be so prejudiced as to think if we went to Iran, we would be beheaded, and our parts drawn and quartered by maniacs.
June 17, 2009 3:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
You'd probably be OK (physically safe) in Iran, but breaking the sanctions might affect your future career in the USA.
June 17, 2009 5:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tweets from Iran. It appears to be more than just Tehran.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/livetweeting-the-revolution.html
June 16, 2009 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gee Foxy, this Sullivan "twitter" business is hellish... if anything could lend itself to manipulation this could. I think that Khameini is going to ride this thing out and the nationalist backlash is going to be fierce.
June 16, 2009 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
This of course is most certainly a possibility. There are a number of folks who certainly pay closer attention than I have that wonder if Khameini might not have over played his hand.
Look there is a very strong possibility that Ahmadinejad actually did win the election, but by a smaller margin. If this is the case why wasn't the election allowed to play out thus probably avoiding the protests.
Historically Iranian elections are not certified for 10 days why the quick jump on this one? Why the claiming from on high that Ahmadinejad won in less than 24 hours.
June 16, 2009 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is an interesting article from Asia Times
Chris Cook is a former director of the International Petroleum Exchange
A very Iranian coup - Asia Times
If you look at recent events in Iran through the lens of oil, money and power, you won't go too far wrong.(...) Unlike in the West, where governments are owned and run by the banking and financial system, in Iran it's the Oil Ministry that controls the purse strings and calls the shots. The Khamenei faction has gradually been taking over key positions in the ministry and its myriad state corporations. (...) Having finally wrested control after years of struggle of the oil revenues from the Rafsanjani faction, the Khamenei'ites are in no mood to give it up.(...) I don't see any chance of a violent revolutionary struggle, since the Iranian military is keeping out of it. This is an economic, not an ideological struggle.
June 16, 2009 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well some reports are starting to filter out (unconfirmed) that the military may not be staying out of it.
June 16, 2009 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so (manipulation). People are self-policing the tweets and looking for new accounts and also relying on friends and persoanl contacts. It's actually pretty powerful, which is why the mullahs keep trying to block socail networking sites. It is totally out of their control.
June 16, 2009 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Froggy,
Have you noticed that you can read all these Iranian "tweets"? Are you aware that the language of Iran is Farsi, not English? Does this piece of information suggest anything to you? Perhaps, the world is like in Hollywood movies where all the exotic character speak English, albeit with charming foreign accents? Or maybe, the dial on a person's bullshit meter might tremble a bit?
June 16, 2009 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
David -
Yes the language of Iran is Farsi, but a large majority, especially students speak english. There is also a large number of US Farsi speakers translating. You will also notice that even by tweet standards some of the english is very broken.
Also there is latest missive from Grand Ayatullah Husayn (Hossein) 'Ali Montazeri via http://occident.blogspot.com/2009/06/confirmed-montazeri-questions-election.html
In the name of God
People of Iran
These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.
Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.
But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.
Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :
1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.
2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.
3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.
4- I ask the police and army personals not to “sell their religion”, and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before god. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today censor and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.
I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.
June 16, 2009 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Foxy,
It's all like a TV series isn't it? Zee furrinerrz espeekink funny. I bet that a lot of people who support the government of Iran don't speak, read or write English and that, in general, more Iranians don't speak English than do. I like all the demonstrations with the posters handily written in English. Doesn't your bullshit meter even twitch a bit when you think about this? After all we have been through in the last few years, aren't you at least a mite distrustful by now?
June 16, 2009 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mine is twitching a bit right around here somewhere.
June 16, 2009 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
not sure what your saying, David. Are you saying we should ignore the only form of communication that Iranians have right now?
Foreign reporters are banned. Cell phones don't work. Internet is spotty.
We see pictures of blood spilling and massive demonstrations, and the millions of Tweets are just fake?
June 16, 2009 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry, didn't finish. Is it any less reliable than traditional media?
I don't think anyone here is prepared to abandon their BS meters, or their understanding that political con games have always been part of history.
June 16, 2009 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point David! It is just downright weird, in my opinion, that we are seeing so many signs printed in English. Why on earth would Iranians print signs in English? Seems very contrived. I've watched 30 years of Iranian protests and you never see signs printed in English. I'm open to a rational and informed explanation of why these signs have sprouted, but it isn't even being discussed in the corporate media though they keep focusing on the signs in all the video we are being shown. Something about that smells funny to me. It is certainly odd to say the least.
June 17, 2009 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
It all just seems to be reeking of the western media event atmosphere of the "multi-colored springs" that the CIA whips together.
The final effect will be that the enemies of Iran will get what they want: a dictatorship. That would be the only way to defend against foreign based subversion on this scale.
June 17, 2009 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
From Haaretz:
Seems a pretty clear analysis.June 17, 2009 2:11 AM | Reply | Permalink