Honduras, a simple case of is you is or is you aint
The United States is in immediate danger of being seen as either helpless or hypocritical or both.
In
fact, from a point of view of American credibility the situation in
Honduras is more relevant than even Iran or
Afghanistan, because the situation in those countries is obviously
quite intractable, but Honduras is a client state of the USA,
practically an American colony.
Honduras, the classic "banana republic" is seen by the world as America's creature.
If
Zelaya is returned to office because of US pressure to respect the
democratic process, then the USA will gain a tremendous amount of
credibility all over the world very cheaply.
If this doesn't happen then Obama and the USA will lose credibility accordingly. No one anywhere will ever believe that the USA couldn't turn this thing around if it wanted to.
In fact no one, anywhere will ever believe that the USA was not behind any final resolution of this question.
In fact that cynicism would be the last shred of dignity left to American power.
If
the world ever thought for even a moment that the USA was impotent to
influence the events in Honduras either as a paladin of democracy or as
imperialist brute then that could be the beginning of the end. Things
would begin to unravel very quickly for the United States of America.
The skinny:
This little coup could be more important for US credibility than Iran, Iraq or Afghanistan... If the USA can't control the situation in Honduras, how can anyone expect the USA to control anything in the Middle East or Southwest Asia... or the dollar for that matter?
I'm curious to hear Obama's response to Chavez's claim of CIA orchestration.
Hopefully it's not the laughable denial he gave to the Iranians.
I'm reading Russ Baker's "Family of Secrets," and it would appear that the CIA does whatever it wants, and presidents generally don't publicly criticize them.
Like the Federal Reserve, also created by Wall St, the CIA operates outside any real government oversight, with false paper trails covering everybody in the unlikely event of Congressional investigation.
June 29, 2009 3:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bill, would be interested in speaking with you. Can you please contact me via the email link on www.familyofsecrets.com ? Thanks.
June 30, 2009 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't find that claim convincing. In fact, I tend to doubt that U.S. credibility would feel much impact. It appears that both sides in the Honduran dispute have violated legal and constitutional norms. This does not justify a coup, but it makes it a poor case for extraordinary measures, and I don't expect the U.S. will necessarily feel compelled to go out on a limb to force the issue.
June 29, 2009 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I don't see the hub of the cosmos pivoting on Honduras. As you point out, Mr. Seaton, it is a classic "banana republic" - and as such, American brainchild - but, moreover, it's also, alas, utterly insignificant as a strategic prize; the nearby Panama Canal, she ain't what she used to be. The only kerfluffle here would be Chavez of Venezuela taking credit for any bloodless solution here (for all his silly sabre-rattling, he isn't stupid enough to do anything militarily). That would be... inconvenient... at most.
June 29, 2009 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If this doesn't happen then Obama and the USA will lose credibility accordingly. No one anywhere will ever believe that the USA couldn't turn this thing around if it wanted to."
I really don't think the world expects, or even wants the United States to assure the stability of Latina American governments. This is what the headlines say it is: an uprising in Honduras. I think the vast majority of people won't be reflexively trying to tie it to the United States. I don't think there's an expectation that US reprisals are taken as orders and accompanied by effusive apologies. Predictably, most governments are going to condemn this coup, and the new leaders will undoubtedly ignore it. I suspect it won't harm US credibility at all, and it will not be thought of as a US issue.
June 29, 2009 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not a coup:
http://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2009/06/no-coup-in-honduras.html
June 29, 2009 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I am not trying to wholesale-rebut your argument here, but
Does this mean a lower-court judge gave the order to depose the president (how does that work)?
Either way, you will notice that the "highest court spokesman" does not -- at least in your article -- state that the president was constitutionally removed, or even that it was done by court order. The statement can be interpreted to just be in support of the military's move after the president decided to go against the court's ruling.
Finally, exactly how hard do you think it is for a military that just performed a coup to "encourage" judges and elected representatives to create them some documents good enough for plausible deniability?
This is all to say that it is not nearly as clear-cut as you seem to think it is.
June 29, 2009 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Simply put: in South America, true or not, this coup will be seen as US inspired. If the USA is merely concerned but doesn't talk sanctions etc, all of South America (which is of great strategic importance on the whole) will see the coup as American inspired, which will put the definitive chill on Obama's attempt to "reset" US relations in that area.
As to the following:
In a country as small and radically divided on class lines as Honduras, the white elite consists of a small group of families, you can be sure that the judges and the colonels are all cousins, certainly that they went to school together and that their wives see each other socially. Something like this can be cooked up over brandy and cigars while the wives play bridge.
June 29, 2009 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Memory lane: American Indian Movement (AIM) leader Russel Means gives a large chunk of Marlon Brando "Indian money" to the Contra rebels. Russel's brilliant reasoning was because he thought the Sandinistas were picking on Misquito Indians. Brando was devastated - and never gave a dime to the Indian cause again for the rest of his life.
What Russel didn't grasp was the history of Honduras. During the Banana Republic days the companies (United Fruit and Standard Fruit & Steamship were the largest by far) a class of Misquitos were culivated to become goons for the growers brutal suppression of labor unions and civil rights. As the Cold War heated up (now there's an oxymoron) the CIA seized on these Indian families as assets in the region. These "Indian Scouts" became very important assets for Contra support during the 80s, and of course when the Sandinistas relocated Misquitos away from the Honduras border to respond to Contra military incursions.
I'm all for the people of Honduras. If they want a better constitution, more power to them. Debating fine points of Honduran law and politics is fine, but not let's forget what its all about - the people.
June 29, 2009 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Before this rolls off into TPM limbo, just a note to say that it looks like Obama is siding clearly with the legitimate president of Honduras and against the army. This is good news. And very good for the USA's present and future standing in Latin America.
Obama gets it right again. Good for him. Good for the rest of us.
June 30, 2009 1:50 AM | Reply | Permalink