Get set

The panic in global financial markets has sparked an unprecedented rush into safe US Treasury securities, driving yields on short-term government notes down to almost zero.(...) The low yields reflect a surge in demand for these instruments, seen as the safest in the world during times of turmoil.(...) Analysts say the fear factor has pushed up demand for Treasuries, since investors are virtually certain the US government will not default.(...) Bob Eisenbeis, analyst at Cumberland Advisors, said the unprecedented low yields are a sign of "dysfunction" in markets. Eisenbeis said US municipal bonds are paying upwards of 6.0 percent tax-free and corporate bonds even more, but that fears of default and a lack of knowledge about underlying bond quality have led investors to shun these alternatives. One reason for the surge in demand for Treasuries, said Eisenbeis, is the Federal Reserve's decision to flood financial markets with liquidity including through other central banks. Many central banks and commercial banks are reluctant to use this cash for traditional lending, and are buying Treasuries to ride out the storm, Eisenbeis added. A big question for the market is whether the Treasury market has become a bubble that will burst. Although the low rates allow Washington to borrow money cheaply, Eisenbeis said such a scenario could be perilous for the economy and the dollar.(...) "There are lots of reasons to believe this Treasury rally is unsustainable, and that a day of reckoning is fast approaching," he said. "When you have this huge flood of liquidity into the marketplace, that can't last forever," he said. A bursting of this bubble could mean a rush out of Treasuries, forcing the government to pay higher rates on an unprecedented amount of debt. (...) Mike Larson, an analyst at Weiss Research, says the long-term bond market could be "the biggest bubble of all," worse than the dot-com and real estate bubbles.(...)"Treasury bonds almost never move this far, this fast. And interest rates, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices, almost never fall this far, this fast," Larson said. (emphasis mine) AFPOne of the most interesting things about the decline of the American empire is that not only are the broad outlines familiar to most of the world's educated inhabitants, but even many of the details are too: details that in any other culture would be private "family" stories. That way we can use the English language and the American situation as a universal parable or mythology when broadly discussing the human condition.
Some readers of mine ask me for Spanish stories and, when I can, I am happy to oblige. The problem with doing this in an English language blog is having to provide masses of context about situations that most readers are not too familiar with.
However today there is a Spanish story that most Americans can appreciate.
As some of you may already know Spain's real estate bubble is one of the few that can rival America's and it is also deflating spectacularly.
Here is an item from an English language review of the Spanish press about Spain's second largest real estate developer, Martinsa-Fadesa:
El País notes today that the Martinsa real estate company overvalued the worth of its land by up to 19,000%. The paper claims that the company ended 2007 with profits because of these accounting irregularities, and gives as an example some land in Las Palmas worth a million € in their accounts, but valued at 179 million. A plot in A Coruña sold for 1.5 million appeared in the accounts with a value of 84 million.That, in a nutshell is what this universal crisis in all about: cooked books, hidden debt, assets whose true value is unknown and perhaps unknowable. This has been going on at every level until value itself has become impossible to determine and wealth is frantically looking for someplace safe to hide.
We are now living through a gigantic spasm, perhaps another birth pang, perhaps the final death throes, of what Naomi Klein calls "Disaster Capitalism": the legacy of Milton Friedman.
What was once the proud ship of Marget Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, the SS Milton Friedman, for decades a powerful intellectual movement, is now sinking in a tragic farce of unregulated larceny. Viewed from outer space it must be a barrel of laughs.
When we look at economic news though, it is important to put them immediately into a human perspective. Here is some interesting context:
As jobless numbers reach levels not seen in 25 years, another crisis is unfolding for millions of people who lost their health insurance along with their jobs, joining the ranks of the uninsured. (...) Starla D. Darling, 27, was pregnant when she learned that her insurance coverage was about to end. She rushed to the hospital, took a medication to induce labor and then had an emergency Caesarean section, in the hope that her Blue Cross and Blue Shield plan would pay for the delivery. Wendy R. Carter, 41, who recently lost her job and her health benefits, is struggling to pay $12,942 in bills for a partial hysterectomy at a local hospital. Her daughter, Betsy A. Carter, 19, has pain in her lower right jaw, where a wisdom tooth is growing in. But she has not seen a dentist because she has no health insurance.(...) About 10.3 million Americans were unemployed in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of unemployed has increased by 2.8 million, or 36 percent, since January of this year, and by 4.3 million, or 71 percent, since January 2001. Most people are covered through the workplace, so when they lose their jobs, they lose their health benefits. On average, for each jobless worker who has lost insurance, at least one child or spouse covered under the same policy has also lost protection, public health experts said.(...) Nearly 4.4 million people are receiving unemployment insurance benefits, an increase of 60 percent in the past year. But more than half of unemployed workers are not receiving help because they do not qualify or have exhausted their benefits. About 1.7 million families receive cash under the main federal-state welfare program, little changed from a year earlier. Welfare serves about 4 of 10 eligible families and fewer than one in four poor children. New York Times___________An increasing number of people who retired in recent years, confident they had set aside enough to live on comfortably, are finding themselves strapped. The stock market plunge and the housing downturn have affected many Americans, of course. But retirees have been particularly pinched because their homes and investments are the primary assets they depend on for income. As a result, many of the country's elderly are finding themselves in Nelson's situation, low on money and looking for work. "Suddenly the rug has been pulled out from under them," says Alicia H. Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Business Week_______________
Workers who got three days' notice their factory was shutting its doors voted to occupy the building and said Saturday they won't go home without assurances they'll get severance and vacation pay they say they are owed. (...)In the second day of a sit-in on the factory floor that began Friday, about 200 union workers occupied the building in shifts while union leaders outside criticized a Wall Street bailout they say is leaving laborers behind.(...) Organizers of the action said the company can't pay employees because its creditor, Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America, won't let them.(...) Bank of America received $25 billion from the government's financial bailout package. "Across cultures, religions, union and nonunion, we all say this bailout was a shame," said Richard Berg, president of Teamsters Local 743. "If this bailout should go to anything, it should go to the workers of this country." Outside the plant, protesters wore stickers and carried signs that said, "You got bailed out, we got sold out." CBS2-Chicago
So, in the snippet from AFP
that opens this post we see that US treasury bonds may constitute a
bubble greater than the real estate or the Internet bubbles. We may
surmise that a collapse of their value would have consequences far
greater than those bubbles bursting have. Among those consequences
might be hyperinflation and the subsequent pauperization of all
Americans except the very, very rich.
The hardships portrayed in the snippets from the Times and from Business Week would multiply exponentially and the frequency of the actions that CBS2 Chicago writes about would multiply with them in lockstep. What are now isolated incidents could become an ungovernable cauldron in a very short time if the great mass of Americans were instantly pauperized as happened recently in Argentina.
Larissa MacFarquhar has written a "must read" profile of Naomi Klein in the current New Yorker. The following snippet may give an idea where the USA is headed right now:
Probably the left's greatest task in the coming months and years is steering this convulsion toward peace and solidarity and away from the temptations of war and mob violence.
The hardships portrayed in the snippets from the Times and from Business Week would multiply exponentially and the frequency of the actions that CBS2 Chicago writes about would multiply with them in lockstep. What are now isolated incidents could become an ungovernable cauldron in a very short time if the great mass of Americans were instantly pauperized as happened recently in Argentina.
Larissa MacFarquhar has written a "must read" profile of Naomi Klein in the current New Yorker. The following snippet may give an idea where the USA is headed right now:
The only time (Naomi Klein) has ever felt a whiff of utopia was in Buenos Aires, in 2002, when the political system had virtually disintegrated--during the time that she and Lewis were filming "The Take." "That moment in Argentina was an incredible time because a vacuum opened up," she says. "They had thrown out four Presidents in two weeks, and they had no idea what to do. Every institution was in crisis. The politicians were hiding in their homes. When they came out, housewives attacked them with brooms. And, walking around Buenos Aires at night, there were meetings on every other street corner. Every plaza where there was a streetlight, people were meeting under it and talking about what to do about the external debt, I swear to God. Groups of one hundred or five hundred people. And organizing buying groceries together because they could get cheaper prices, setting up barters because the currency was worthless. It was the most inspiring thing I've ever seen."If the 20th century has any lessons to teach us, it is that sort of scenario we see laid out clearly before us leads to massive social unrest and upheaval: if not properly managed it can be the classic yeast culture that every apprentice fascist dreams of.
Probably the left's greatest task in the coming months and years is steering this convulsion toward peace and solidarity and away from the temptations of war and mob violence.
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David, please forgive me for derailing your post right off the block, but since we have no other means of communication, here goes...
I've noticed that you use a lot of pics in your posts, but I can't figure out how to do it. When I hit the insert picture icon I get an error message saying there is no asset there or some such thing. There is a search box, but I don't know what to search...help?
December 8, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of rich text, select markup or markup w/ smartypants, then insert the URL of the pic into this html code:
Make sure the width and height are proportional to the actual properties of the pic file.
Maybe there's an easier way, but that works for me.
December 8, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
code didn't come through?
December 8, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
First, you need to make sure the image is hosted somewhere online. For instance, David is stealing bandwidth for the image above from consumerist.com. Then, if you're not the creator of the image, it's always a good idea to get permission from the creator of the image before you post it--otherwise, you'll be stealing from the host AND the graphic artist/photographer who created the image. (At the very least, it's considered polite to give the artist credit for the image you've stolen). Then make sure formatting is disabled in your post (select None from the Format drop-down list) and code the image into the page. The syntax is as follows (I'm experimenting with tags here, so this may not work):
<img src="http://myimagehost.com/myimagename.jpg" width="myimagewidthinpixels" height="myimageheightinpixels">
Make sure to include the ENTIRE PATH to the image. If your image is called "imagethaticreatedanddidntsteal.jpg", and it's 100 x 100 pixels and it's hosted on Flickr, for instance, the tag would read:
<img src="http://www.flickr.com/imagethaticreatedanddidntsteal.jpg" width="100" height="100">
The quotation marks around the variables are not always necessary, but it's a good idea to use them anyway.
After you've added the image, switch back to Rich Text format to see whether you've coded it right.
December 8, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, my little experiment worked and the angle braces showed up, so the tags above look like they should. The simplest way to figure this stuff out, by the way, is to get into the habit of viewing the source code for the page. It's under the View menu in most browsers. Once you've peeked at the code, it's usually a simple matter to substitute your own variables to get the result you're after.
December 8, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Bunnycat! Haven't seen you in ages! Thanks for the help...
December 8, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are most welcome. Hope my explanation made sense and that it works for you. When campaign season is over, my obsessions tend to turn toward other subjects. Lately, I'm deep into the horrors of DNS vulnerabilities and the inevitable death of the Internet:
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/16-12/ff_kaminsky
December 8, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that you?
December 8, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope, that's not me. I'm just one of the many hackers working on a solution.
December 8, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, thanks for your work! You brainiacs have my admiration!
December 8, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Much too complicated! Especially adjusting the size of the photo your are inlining ("stealing").
I suggest you use an HTML editor and then copy and paste the results into the HTML. For the heavy lifting, I use Frontpage and Dreamweaver, but for little chores like this I use Composer that comes bundled with Mozilla's "Sea Monkey" browser. Anything you don't have like Frontpage and Dreamweaver you can find at the following link:
http://thepiratebay.org
Mozilla Composer is free.
December 9, 2008 2:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
"For the heavy lifting, I use Frontpage..."
Heavy lifting? What--are you running some server side stuff here that Josh should know about? No, wait, I get it. You're talking about font tags, right? Heavy lifting. Haha. That's cute.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with learning, David.
December 9, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
What do I mean by "heavy lifting"?
I've been doing relatively complex (no flash, no big style sheets) web pages for friends and clients for the last ten years or so. I'm no expert, but I am kind of experienced and more or less fluent.
December 9, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Much too complicated! Especially adjusting the size of the photo your are stealing."
The really funny part is that you have so little understanding of what you're doing that you don't even know how to read your own code:
img style="width: 450px; height: 306px;"
December 9, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the original your are stealing is not the size you want: too big, too small, you have to change the size. The problem is to keep the scale and not have distortions. Unless you are a math wizard this is very difficult to do strictly in the code. In Composer and in most programs all you have to do is grab the corner of the photo and drag it out or push it in and automatically the correct, in scale, measurements are written into the code. eh voilá
December 9, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's only multiplication and division. Let's say you're using a photo that's 608p x 465p and you want it to be only 400p wide. For the proportional height, use 465 x (400/608) = ~306.
December 9, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
David...I'm soooooooo sorry to have co-opted your blog. I thought you'd answer and that would be that...This was so uncool of me!
Can I make it up to with a virtual plate of homemade chocolate chip cookies?
December 8, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you find all the code too complicated, I suggest you use an HTML editor. For complicated stuff I use Frontpage and Dreamweaver, but for little chores like this I use Composer that comes bundled with Mozilla's "Sea Monkey" browser.
December 9, 2008 1:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for highlighting the T-Bill bubble, David. This is one I genuinely worry about. If and when that money finds another home, the world could change in a hurry.
December 9, 2008 1:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the USA is headed in the direction of Argentina.... if we are lucky... and Wiemar if we aren't.
December 9, 2008 2:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
As Google says "Did you mean 'Weimar'?"
December 9, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
So sorry, my bad.
December 9, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can afford to notice those details because I am fairly insulated from the financial risks, at least for now. My outfit survived the Depression, and has had regular seasons for almost 120 years. I have a defined-benefit pension, when I eventually have to retire, and the house is usually quite full.
On top of that I have zero money of my own in any stocks. So I'm already set.
December 9, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to hear it.
If you want to worry, worry about hyperinflation, where a ham sandwich suddenly costs 50 bucks, that's when all bets are off.
December 9, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink