Jonathan Martin writes in Politico this afternoon that Obama will find more sympathetic voter terrain in Indiana, which has a surprisingly high urban makeup among other traits.  And - just as important if not more so - he's on equal footing with Clinton from the start.  No 20 point come-from-behind gap to contend with, no Clinton home-state advantages to overcome.

Anyway, it's an interesting read...I'll share a few quotes below, but here's the link:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9817.html

For Obama, the raw math suggests a slight advantage. Upwards of 25 percent of the primary vote will come out of just two counties: Marion and Lake. The first is home to Indianapolis, the capital and state’s largest city, and the second is home to industrial Gary, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market.

Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, predict Indiana political observers, thanks in part to large African-American populations.

...contrary to some stereotypes of the state, Indiana’s population is largely packed into small and medium cities — not spread out in rural areas. It’s more than 70 percent urban, and 30 of the state’s counties produce 81 percent of the vote.

Clinton's risen from the dead, but is the stake yet aimed? While The NYT says she scared up the PA votes with a sad display of negativity, Dick Morris has more heartening words.

Writing today, he makes a good point about the PA voter composition:

"Clinton won Pennsylvania for two key reasons: Only Democrats could vote in the primary, and the Keystone State electorate is dominated by the elderly, who are staunchly for Clinton.

"Despite her claims of electability, Hillary has never done well among independent voters. And Obama usually loses the Democrats. Pennsylvania's closed-primary rules gave her a key advantage."

The next races, he adds, are different:

"But don't expect the open primaries of Indiana and North Carolina to behave like Pennsylvania's geriatrics. Both states are younger, especially North Carolina, and independents can vote in each primary. (North Carolina is where a lot of the young people who fled Pennsylvania winters and job losses ended up).

"Over the next two weeks, we'll be treated to much hoopla about how the Democratic race is once again up for grabs. Then, on May 5, Hillary's hopes will be dashed once more.

"But consider that a New York Times editorial painted Clinton's PA success with a different brush - that she won handily thanks in large measure to heavy-handed punches and fear-inducing ads."
 
So I come to wonder: was her win more about the demographics to which Morris points or was it more about her negativity?  Would she need both to win Indiana as she did in Ohio and PA or would negativity alone be enough for her?

And will Obama HAVE to go seriously negative in Indiana so as to beat her, even with more favorable voter composition?   I really hope not, but I want him to win.

Oy!