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Krugman renounces free trade, neoliberal economics and financialization


In his December 22 column, Paul Krugman says we must step away from so-called 'free trade' if we want a sustained economic recovery (italics added).

A more plausible route to sustained recovery would be a drastic reduction in the U.S. trade deficit, which soared at the same time the housing bubble was inflating. By selling more to other countries and spending more of our own income on U.S.-produced goods, we could get to full employment without a boom in either consumption or investment spending.
This, of course, is heresy in the High Church of Free Trade.   According to dogma, if a good or service can be produced elsewhere more efficiently (and the wizards of finance will tell you what 'more efficiently' means), domestic employment or balance of trade must be sacrificed to the higher cause.  

Krugman seems to be sanctioning something dangerously close to import substitution, an approach to economic development popular in the post-colonial era - and replaced by the neoliberal 'Washington consensus.'  But he doesn't stop there.

[W]here will the capacity for a surge in exports and import-competing production come from? Despite rising trade in services, most world trade is still in goods, especially manufactured goods -- and the U.S. manufacturing sector, after years of neglect in favor of real estate and the financial industry, has a lot of catching up to do.
Krugman is whacking another pillar of the church: the infallibility of the post-industrial service economy.  This doctrine holds that we are past making 'things,' whether it's clothes and steel (dubbed 'sunset industries'), or computers and consumer electronics (mere 'commodities'), and our economic future is in services, as in, say, financial services. (Funny how the cheerleaders for the post-industrial economy were so jazzed by China's economic miracle - though it sprang from manufacturing, not services.)

The under-appreciated Eamonn Fingleton has pointed out that policy-makers' misplaced faith in a service economy is an error of historic proportions.  At any rate, Krugman brings up the often-overlooked fact that most of the world's economic activity still involves making things - and our ability to make things has been crippled by the financial sector's growth.

Kevin Phillips has chronicled what happens when manufacturing is eclipsed by finance, and it is not pretty.  Krugman is catching up. In his December 19th column, he writes:

The financial services industry has claimed an ever-growing share of the nation's income over the past generation, making the people who run the industry incredibly rich. Yet, at this point, it looks as if much of the industry has been destroying value, not creating it. And it's not just a matter of money: the vast riches achieved by those who managed other people's money have had a corrupting effect on our society as a whole. ...

[H]ow much has our nation's future been damaged by the magnetic pull of quick personal wealth, which for years has drawn many of our best and brightest young people into investment banking, at the expense of science, public service and just about everything else? Most of all, the vast riches being earned -- or maybe that should be "earned" -- in our bloated financial industry undermined our sense of reality and degraded our judgment.
The problem is the bloated financial industry itself, not just bloated salaries in the industry.  It has undermined and degraded our productive capacity, our ability to make the things we use in our everyday lives, leaving us dangerously dependent on uncertain sources of not just energy, but food, clothing and technology as well.

Even Tom Friedman, that archbishop of flat-earthism, is beginning to see the light. Two days before Christmas he wrote:

[W]e've fallen into a trend of diverting and rewarding the best of our collective I.Q. to people doing financial engineering rather than real engineering. These rocket scientists and engineers were designing complex financial instruments to make money out of money -- rather than designing cars, phones, computers, teaching tools, Internet programs and medical equipment that could improve the lives and productivity of millions.
Sorry, Tom, but we didn't fall into a trend - we jumped head first into the post-industrial-financial-service-economy-is-the-future abyss, and you were standing tall at the edge of the flat world assuring us the bungee cord was secure.

In reality, research and engineering follow production. You'll find the researchers and engineers creating the next generation of technology right there where you find people making the cars, phones, computers and medical equipment we use today.

This is cross posted on my blog Relevant Information, http://ellisinfo.blogspot.com/. 


18 Comments

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"We" still design a lot of things, actually. So Tom Friedman (that asshat) gets it wrong even when he actually tries to get it right. For example, Apple makes successful products, and it has people who design them who still work in the USA. But who makes them?

Among the industries that helped open the floodgates to offshoring production was the high-tech industry... companies like Intel that made many millionaires and billionaires -- that still do a lot of great engineering work in the USA -- set up their factories in places like Malaysia where they didn't have pesky labor unions. They beat back an attempt by the UAW to organize their Livermore fab (see page 152, "Inside Intel")

But part of the victory [over the UAW] was also the result of a successful, military-style campaign, convincing the staff of the carrots they would receive if they stayed unrepresented and the sticks they'd get beaten with if they didn't. For instance, the leaflets had pointed out in a dry, factual way that if workers went on strike and picketed outside the plant, they needed to realize that the company had the right to fire them and bring in replacements to take over their jobs.

That was the 1970s. Ironically, the choice of Livermore itself was already sort of an attempt to "offshore" work, away from Silicon Valley where experienced workers could demand better wages and benefits because they had other opportunities from other high-tech companies. Intel moved production so that workers in the new places would have no options. And they admit as much to anyone who chronicles the history of the company.

So where is Intel's Livermore fab today? It was closed in 1990.


The reason the pimps of the financialized, globalized economy were bleating on about the service economy is because those jobs were thought to be less likely to be offshored, and after all, surplus Americans are still needed to buy Chinese manufactured goods made in the production supply chain of US-based multinationals, otherwise Apple's stock won't go up.

Of course that was before it was figured out that you could even have your X-rays read in Bangalore. Now all bets are off... almost anyone can be rendered a surplus worker, whether it's the good engineers that asshat Friedman thinks we need, or the poor guy on the production floor who used to put together your television set, or even the doctor who suddenly finds the patients are going on a "medical tourism" trip. My friend is becoming a surgeon. I advised him to specialize in surgery for things where a person could not possibly survive a plane flight longer than one hour. I'm only half kidding.

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A great and "thotful" reply. Good reading! Thanks!

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friedman is an asshat. Thank you for that.

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Thotful, indeed.

In his prescient and highly readable 'In Praise of Hard Industries' (also available under the title 'Unsustainable' from Nation Books), Eamonn Fingleton details how service sector jobs are actually more easily outsourced than manufacturing jobs.

Basically, you only need a phone connection and microcomputers to get into the call center or software business, while advanced manufacturing is capital intensive and therefore has a higher barrier to entry.

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At last, it seems some sanity is abroad in the economics discussion. For too long, there has been an unchallenged reliance upon "trickle down" economics that has resulted in a myopic focus on the financial sector as our bellwhether to indicate the health of our economy. If manufacturing jobs were exported to gain "productivity," so be it. "What's good for Morgan Stanley is good for the country" became the norm.

Meanwhile, those of us a little farther down the food chain in the "trickle down" environment have realized for some time that this wasn't working. "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows," and all efforts to mollify the working classes by offering education, etc., so they, too, could become MBA's or otherwise take jobs in the service sector were correctly met with scorn and disgust. After all, just how many MBA's might a single economy support? Or how might one feed a family on a Wal-Mart wage?

I agree with your premise that research and engineering follow production. It's about time that the US start producing again, rather than investing hope and confidence for our future in the chimera and the casino that is present day Wall Street.

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I knew I liked Krugman as soon as it was announced that he would receive the Nobel Prize. Joe Scarborough, as he as done every time a so-called liberal receives this prize, went nuts. For the next three days or so he kept attacking the organization that gives out the prize.

As I understand it, Paul received the prize for work done years ago, an analysis of global economics.

You are right in pointing out that new perspectives on economics are needed and I think these new perspectives will be discerned from actions taken by the New Administration.

I like this post and the comments.

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Sadly,Krugman's comment do not necessarily consitute an attack on free trade. For example , they could equally be interpreted as a recommendation for devaluation.

Supporting your view, his Nobel prize speech,available on the web , adds a few feathers to the anti-free-trade side of the scale.

I've blogged several times that free trade is a tragic mistake for us - quoting Keynes' position -but even among the economists who appear here there's little agreement with my position.I'd be delighted to see Krugman unequivocally condeemn it, but I'm not holding my breath.

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Sorry, Tom, but we didn't fall into a trend - we jumped head first into the post-industrial-financial-service-economy-is-the-future abyss, and you were standing tall at the edge of the flat world assuring us the bungee cord was secure.
This is my favorite metaphor of the morning so far and goes into my Tom-Friedman-has-a-head-as-flat-as-his-earth notebook.

Naomi Klein, whose little finger has more IQ points than Tom's, points out over and over what a scam "free market" fundamentalism is. It's just repackaged feudalism. She calls the followers of Uncle Miltie Friedman just another group of shapeshifters who have found a "reason" for stealing stuff from other people.

I am glad that Krugman is walking away from the swamp of neo liberalism, even though I wish he were running away. One year ago he confessed to Charlie Rose that he had been convinced that "globalization" would raise living standards around the world, but did not foresee how devastating free market orthodoxy would be to the U.S. I found that a bit disheartening, but at least he had put the Kool-Aid cup down.
Great minds have resisted neo-liberalism, but they have been stuck in the basement, literally. Read Chris Hayes great article in "The Nation" called "Hip Heterodoxy" where he goes to an economist convention and all the anti Friedmanites are in a basement room with a cash bar while the so-called high priests of the free market have free booze and great food upstairs. It was also discussed here in 2007.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070611/hayes

Thanks for the discussion. We must get back to making stuff. I'm pretty sure economy writers and researchers have proven that innovation comes from being around people are who are building things. And there should be a partnership between the workers, researchers, and managers not a feudal caste system.

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"One year ago he confessed to Charlie Rose that he had been convinced that "globalization" would raise living standards around the world, but did not foresee how devastating free market orthodoxy would be to the U.S. I found that a bit disheartening, but at least he had put the Kool-Aid cup down."

How someone as smart as Krugman (and a trained economist, no less) could fail to see that US living standards would inevitably take a huge hit once our low-and-medium skilled workers (which still make up 80 percent of our population) had to compete with workers making 3 to 10 percent of our workers' wages is beyond me.

It would be nice if he would admit, ala Alan Greenspan, that fundamental propositions he took for granted (yet were somehow obvious to non-economists like many of us commenting here) were almost childlike in their naivete, and completely wrong about basic economic behavior.

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"innovation comes from being around people who are building things"

As any college student who has done an internship (or anyone else who has held a job) knows, most learning comes from learning-by-doing, rather than from the classroom.

In a practical sense, those who actually make things are the ones to figure out how to make things better.

Or as Thomas Edison said, genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.

The notion that Americans are uniquely gifted to be the world's innovators, while 'others' will make the things we design, always struck me as not only misguided and naive, but condescending and even borderline racist.

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This is my favorite metaphor of the morning so far and goes into my Tom-Friedman-has-a-head-as-flat-as-his-earth notebook.

Hey Feral, may I quote you on this?

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I agree with Tiggers.

Why are people so convinced that research & engineering follow production?

Apple is a great example. So is Microsoft. So is Nike. So is GE

There are still plenty of great products being created in the US

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Very good points.

I would say, however, that the number of jobs in design is small compared with the number in production.

But perhaps more to the point, Microsoft has set up research facilities in China, noting that the cost of engineers there is a fraction of US costs.

The Guardian reports that Microsoft plans to spend $1 billion in research - in China.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/pda/2008/nov/13/microsoft-research

In some cases, research does follow production.

Taiwanese companies tell the story of how they climbed the ladder from OEM (original equipment manufacturing), that is, contract manufacturing of equipment designed elsewhere, to ODM (original design manufacturing) - designing the equipment as well as manufacturing it.

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Sure. I didn't mean to imply that a company like Microsoft won't spend money overseas on R&D. They spend about $8bn a year in R&D so to spend a couple hundred million per year in China makes a lot of sense. But I don't think that this means that R&D is "following" production. Microsoft sells their products to the Chinese market, so it's only logical that they have local R&D that helps them design products tailored to that local market. The Chinese version of Excel for example works alot differently than the US version. I wouldn't want an American designing it. Same thing for the X-box

I also didn't see anything in the press release you posted which talked about the cost of engineers being a fraction of US costs. I don't think the people they're hiring in China are "replacing" any US engineers. I think Microsoft understands that if you're going to sell products to the Chinese, you need to have local Chinese workers that understand the local market. These people that they're hiring in China are additive to the company's overall R&D efforts

I'm also glad that the Taiwanese have climbed the ladder. But that doesn't mean the US can't fairly compete with the Taiwanese on design. And just because the Taiwanese have that capability, I don't think you'll be seeing Apple (for example) outsource all of their design work for the next iPod to Taiwan.

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This is no more difficult than admitting the fact that there must be an accommodation made for unequal economic units. There is no way that the economy of China delivers to its population the same quality of life and comparable goods and services that is delivered in our economy. That costs money. This is the simple explanation why their annual wage is a fraction of ours. Making wage comparisons between China and the U.S. is absolutely stupid and those who do it are absolutely dishonest.

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I'm not sure if I've been called absolutely stupid and/or absolutely dishonest, or if that was directed at those corporate bean counters who boost their short term profits and share price by shifting production from domestic facilities to cheap foreign labor markets (I am not referring to Microsoft), but happy holidays anyway.

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À propos of Friedman, he's just trying to change his spots to blend in with the new wave of opinion so that he can sell more books. He's like George Gilder, a well-remunerated cheerleader. Incidentally, I saw Friedman on C-Span with Joseph Stiglitz. Friedman sounded like a 12 year old in comparison, but the audience who had heard of Friedman but not of Stiglitz directed all of their questions to the 12 year old. Friedman is married to a Florida real estate billionaire's daughter and lives in a $13,000,000 house. He would never want to bite the hand ...

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One year ago he confessed to Charlie Rose that he had been convinced that "globalization" would raise living standards around the world, but did not foresee how devastating free market orthodoxy would be to the U.S.

Krugman's surprise at the results of globalization seems naive. With all the equations economists have available to them you would think that they could prove that water (and economies) seeks its own level. That is to say of course globalization will raise the standard of living for the folks that get the jobs and the standard of living will be lowered for the ones who lose their jobs.

Pretty simple math it seems to me. It doesn't take a Nobel winning economist to figure it out. It was obvious in the 80s when manufacturing began its exodus that this would be the result.

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Curtis Ellis

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Curtis Ellis is a political operative, writer, video producer and political communications expert. He has worked in top tier federal campaigns, on Capitol Hill and in national broadcast and print media.

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