INFLATION AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. WHY IT MAY NOT WORK IN OUR FAVOR .
This from today's Wall Street Journal:
Globalization has had a "gradual and limited" effect on U.S. inflation in recent years, Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn said Friday, cautioning that any disinflationary effect could reverse over time.
"The effects of globalization on domestic inflation need not even be negative, especially in today's environment of strong global growth," Kohn said in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference sponsored by the Boston Fed.
Mr. Kohn's remarks seem to rebut the long-held view of many economists that increased integration of the global economy, and particularly the emergence of countries like China and India as low-cost producers, acts as a restraining force on U.S. inflation.
Import prices, Mr. Kohn noted, have in recent years risen at about the same average pace as core prices, "and thus no longer appear to be acting as a significant restraint on inflation in the United States." He added, "I have seen little direct evidence on the extent to which globalization may have boosted aggregate productivity growth in the United States in recent years."
Well, which is it. If Mr. Kohn is right, then the U.S. will see pernicious inflation, a decline in the dollar and therefore a decline in asset values. This is what the Financial Times' Daniel Gros was ultimately worried about in his piece on U.S. debt and deficits when he noted that reports underestimate our enormous indebtedness.
U.S. dollar inflation ultimately will reduce the value of what we owe our foreign creditors (the dollars they reap will be worth less in purchasing power) and this will press the issue of whether or not the dollar should remain the reserve currency (universal denomination of transaction) or the Euro takes over.
Do you remember when the Vice President told us that deficits don't matter? When will some bright-eyed report put that question to him again and again? I really want to hear his answer.




