<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
   <title>cosmoetica&apos;s Blog</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/cosmoetica/" />
   <link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/cosmoetica/atom.xml" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/cosmoetica//3552</id>
   <updated>2008-11-05T14:22:49Z</updated>
   
   <generator uri="http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/">Movable Type Pro 4.21-en</generator>


<entry>
   <title>The Coming Centrist Obama Presidency</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/cosmoetica/2008/11/the-coming-centrist-obama-pres.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/cosmoetica//3552.242981</id>
   
   <published>2008-11-05T14:19:18Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-05T14:22:49Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[ Normal 0 Normal 0 Normal 0 Copyright © by Dan Schneider, 11/5/08 Normal 0 &nbsp; Given Senator Barack Obama's victory over Senator John McCain, last night, now is the time to dispel a few myths about what it all...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>cosmoetica</name>
      <uri>http://www.cosmoetica.com/</uri>
   </author>
   
   <category term="9" label="2008" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="58" label="Obama" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="6437" label="Presidential Election" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/cosmoetica/">
      <![CDATA[<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Daniel/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/msoclip1/01/clip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <w:WordDocument>
  <w:View>Normal</w:View>
  <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
  <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser/>
 </w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><style>
<!--
 /* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
	{mso-style-parent:"";
	margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoHeader, li.MsoHeader, div.MsoHeader
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoFooter, li.MsoFooter, div.MsoFooter
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoBodyText, li.MsoBodyText, div.MsoBodyText
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
	{color:blue;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
	{color:purple;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
p
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.atanarjuatbody1
	{mso-style-name:atanarjuatbody1;}
span.bodytext
	{mso-style-name:bodytext;}
span.basefont
	{mso-style-name:basefont;}
@page Section1
	{size:8.5in 11.0in;
	margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
	mso-header-margin:.5in;
	mso-footer-margin:.5in;
	mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
	{page:Section1;</style><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Daniel/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/msoclip1/01/clip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <w:WordDocument>
  <w:View>Normal</w:View>
  <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
  <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser/>
 </w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><style>
<!--
 /* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
	{mso-style-parent:"";
	margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoHeader, li.MsoHeader, div.MsoHeader
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoFooter, li.MsoFooter, div.MsoFooter
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoBodyText, li.MsoBodyText, div.MsoBodyText
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
	{color:blue;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
	{color:purple;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
p
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.atanarjuatbody1
	{mso-style-name:atanarjuatbody1;}
span.bodytext
	{mso-style-name:bodytext;}
span.basefont
	{mso-style-name:basefont;}
@page Section1
	{size:8.5in 11.0in;
	margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
	mso-header-margin:.5in;
	mso-footer-margin:.5in;
	mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
	{page:Section1;}
--></style><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Daniel/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/msoclip1/01/clip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <w:WordDocument>
  <w:View>Normal</w:View>
  <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
  <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser/>
 </w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><style>
<!--
 /* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
	{mso-style-parent:"";
	margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoHeader, li.MsoHeader, div.MsoHeader
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoFooter, li.MsoFooter, div.MsoFooter
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoBodyText, li.MsoBodyText, div.MsoBodyText
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
	{color:blue;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
	{color:purple;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
p
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.atanarjuatbody1
	{mso-style-name:atanarjuatbody1;}
span.bodytext
	{mso-style-name:bodytext;}
span.basefont
	{mso-style-name:basefont;}
@page Section1
	{size:8.5in 11.0in;
	margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
	mso-header-margin:.5in;
	mso-footer-margin:.5in;
	mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
	{page:Section1;}
-->
</style><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">Copyright © by Dan Schneider, 11/5/08</span><br /><br /><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 9"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Daniel/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/msoclip1/01/clip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <w:WordDocument>
  <w:View>Normal</w:View>
  <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
  <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser/>
 </w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><style>
<!--
 /* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
	{mso-style-parent:"";
	margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoHeader, li.MsoHeader, div.MsoHeader
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoFooter, li.MsoFooter, div.MsoFooter
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	tab-stops:center 3.0in right 6.0in;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoBodyText, li.MsoBodyText, div.MsoBodyText
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
	{color:blue;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
	{color:purple;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
p
	{margin-right:0in;
	mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
	mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
	margin-left:0in;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.atanarjuatbody1
	{mso-style-name:atanarjuatbody1;}
span.bodytext
	{mso-style-name:bodytext;}
span.basefont
	{mso-style-name:basefont;}
@page Section1
	{size:8.5in 11.0in;
	margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
	mso-header-margin:.5in;
	mso-footer-margin:.5in;
	mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
	{page:Section1;}
-->
</style>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>Given Senator
Barack Obama's victory over Senator John McCain, last night, now is the time to
dispel a few myths about what it all means. But first, let me toot my own horn
a bit, for way back in early June I predicted <a href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/campaign-2008-what-was-and-wha.php">here</a> that the man
would win with between 300 and 320 electoral votes; months before others came
to a similar feeling. Most pundits foresaw another squeaker, ala 2000 or 2004.
I did not; and it seems I was even too cautious. As of this morning, Obama
holds a 349-163 electoral vote lead, with only North Carolina's 15 and
Missouri's 11 outstanding. It looks like North Carolina will fall into Obama's
camp later today, with Missouri too close to call. McCain has a slight lead,
but thousands of provisional ballots from urban areas could swing it to Obama,
in a week or so. The final tally will likely be 364-174 or 375-163 Obama.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>Now, to
mythbusting. First, the biggest myth going around is that Obama's victory <a href="http://www.theweek.com/article/index/90147/3/End_Times_for_Reaganism">tolled
the end</a> for the 'Reagan Revolution, nearly three decades ago. Truth be
told, the Reagan Revolution was never real, and the much touted '<a href="http://www.theweek.com/article/index/90200/3/Obama_in_Reagans_shadow">Age
Of Reagan</a>' also never was. Instead, last night's victory signaled the end
of several things. The first was the end of the Nixon Era. Yes, that Nixon. For
without Richard Nixon and his Southern Strategy, Ronald Reagan's Presidency
would never have come to pass. People forget that throughout his twelve year
quest for the presidency, prior to 1980, Governor Ronald Reagan was pretty much
considered a joke candidate- and not just across America, but within the
Republican Party. That's because he was an intellectual lightweight, and seen as
a pale imitation of Senator Barry Goldwater, the true father of the modern, and
now discredited, Conservative movement.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>The fact is that
Reagan innovated nothing- not ideas nor strategy, and were it not for the
mediocre performance of President Jimmy Carter and the Iran Hostage crisis,
Reagan would likely never have come within sniffing distance of the White
House. That's because it was Nixon's own brand of personal viciousness that put
flesh and life on the skeletal ideas and vision of Goldwater that Reagan merely
refried. The last four decades of Right Wing ascendancy have not been noted for
any great innovations in political governance, but the<span style="">&nbsp; </span>rising tide of personal invective, wedge
issues, and the nurturing of celebrity over quality. All of these things are
quintessentially Nixonian, not Reaganesque. Yes, there is some truth to the old
adage that Johnson started the Great Society, but Nixon funded it. Yet, that
was less ideology than placating rabble rousers as Nixon vainly tried to end
the Vietnam War. From Watergate to the Enemies List to illegal bombings in
Cambodia to attacking opponents on personal levels; all of this has only
flowered, especially on the Right. Reagan simply needed a Nixon to flourish,
and, so, the last forty years of politics, that came to an end last night, get
the imprimatur of the larger historical figure, for good or ill, and that
figure is indisputably Nixon.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>But, there is
likely (and hopefully) an even greater historical page turning that took place;
and that was the official end of Twentieth Century politics, almost eight years
(or nine, depending on your wont) after history turned that page. That end came
not because racism itself died, but because the assumptions of it (such as the
main one- a black man could never be President) died. Granted, one election
won't change totally the dynamic, but it can be a tipping point. That said, a
good four years (and it cannot be worse than last 8) from Obama will do the
trick, for the racist white male vote- and is there any better emblem for that
than the wannabe Skinhead poster boy (do you think the McCain campaign even
realized the symbolism?), Joe the Plumber (aka Sam the Scammer, aka Sam
Worzelbacher; not Wurzelbacher)- will fade to demographic irrelevance.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>This is because,
despite the dronings on of assorted talking heads, the USA has never been a <a href="http://www.theweek.com/article/index/90200/3/Obama_in_Reagans_shadow">Center
Right</a> country, but a Center Left one. Republicans have never so much won
elections than the Democrats have lost them. Don't believe that Liberalism has
always been ascendant, and is indeed inexorable? Just look back at this
nation's own history, and go back in quarter century chunks. One will see that
every quarter century that passes sees the opening up of society into a freer
way of living. 2008 is freer and better than 1983, which surpassed 1958, which
was better than 1933, etc. Going back in times sees shackles being added, not
removed- from Jim Crow to Suffragism to child labor to slavery, etc. And this
bit of reality also has the benefit of taking into account the cyclical nature
of things real and political. Yes, at a given moment, the culture may be a bit
less liberal than a few years before, but it's still significantly more open
and progressive than the most conservative nadir of the prior cycle. The same
is true that the liberal upswing of society always goes higher with each acme
of the cycle. Go ahead, try to argue against reality.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>So, with two myths
shot, let's look at the claims that Obama is a radical, or a Socialist, or the
'Most Liberal' (shiver) Senator in the U.S. Senate. If so, why did he have a
sizable following amongst Republicans (Obamacans); as well as endorsements from
many prominent Republicans? Because, while Republicans preach the bottom up
approach to problem solving, neither the Bush Administration, nor John Mccain,
have shown that they approach problems that way. Instead, both hired high
priced advisers to design solutions. In fact, this was probably the reason Obama
defeated the similarly-minded Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. They
all approached problem solving from the top down. But, Obama, the old
grassroots organizer, does the opposite. He lives the creed Republicans preach,
even if with different ideas. Thus, his opinions on matters have a ring of
sincerity that his opponents lacked. Think of how much John McCain's lack of
economic innovation was likely due to his hiring of high priced experts and
advisers, rather than genuine study and cogitation.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>And, if one really
looks at Obama's ideas on school choice, taxation, gun control, Supreme Court
philosophy, abortion, the economy, and on and on, one finds a rather pragmatic,
not dogmatic, approach. The reason so many claim him so far left is that the last
quarter century has been so far right, with the brief Clinton interregnum of
center right rule. And, yes, Clinton was hardly a leftist. Check out Clinton's
record on NAFTA, the environment, public pieties, and a whole assortment of
other issues. After all, it was Clinton who prematurely declared the era of big
government to be over. Obama, by contrast, is firmly in the center of American
thought, with his few deviations heading leftward. But, he's hardly a radical
New Dealer- not that that was truly radical, either. But, even if he were,
there's no way that he will be able to institute a fraction of the policies
he'd like, because, unlike President Franklin Roosevelt, Obama is dealing from
an enormous disadvantage in budget deficits and trade debt; all that's left
from nearly three decades of failed supply side economics. And, if one doubts
the failure, consider the astounding admissions by former Fed chairman Alan
Greenspan that the economy is in the worst shape since the Great Depression
because the 'free' market is really not a self-correcting process. <br /></p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>The old trickle
down supply side folly of Republican economic schemes to funnel wealth upward
from the poor to the rich have finally played out. Consider the vaunted
ideology related to tax cuts, that, even this year, both candidates gave lip
service to. The fact is that there is simply no correlation between rates of
taxation and rates of revenue- revenue growth is directly related to the health
of an economy and factors other than taxation. After all, tax rates were at
their highest under Eisenhower, and the economy boomed. The Laffer Curve, in
all realistic taxation scenarios, is as mythic as Adam Smith's Invisible Hand.
Don't think so? Here are the facts: Under Presidents Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush
2, taxes were cut and revenue grew. Aha, say you, see- the Supply Siders were
right! Not so fast. Consider that under Presidents Reagan, Bush 1, and Clinton
the rates of tax revenues reached successive records- and all that was <i>after</i>
they raised taxes! And all three of those times saw the economy recovering from
financial downturns. Even further; the national deficit and debt grew under
Reagan and Bush 2, while it shrank under Clinton. Why? Because of factors other
than taxation rates. In short, the whole argument is simply a sideshow designed
by the far right to pay off their 'investors,' not because it has anything to
do with national fiscal health. So, yes; although mocked, Senator Joe Biden was
correct in calling the payment of taxes, for the good of the public, a
patriotic thing. Taxes are not 'stealing,' but a <i>de facto</i> dues a citizen
pays to share in the benefits the country's system brings- from defense to
roads to Social Security- all what is known as 'the public commons.' No company
or corporation (that fictive monster)- not <i>Microsoft</i>, <i>Google</i>, nor
<i>Walmart</i>, has the fiscal capacity to pay for all of the infrastructure
needed to bring goods and services to the public. They all should pay taxes
because they all benefit from its bounty.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>And because Obama
recognizes this, while McCain (at least publicly) does not, he got my vote,
after three straight elections of voting for Ralph Nader. I do believe that, as
the right claimed, Obama is a Manchirian Candidate- but for the middle and
working classes, not for terrorists, Moslems, socialists, Communists, nor the
like. He had to pay lip service to alot of bullshit (like being against gay
marriage) just to get elected; so that he could stand against <span class="basefont">the Republican values of wholesale deregulation of industries
and the concomitant redistribution of wealth, upward, is over. But, this makes
him not a raging radical leftist, but a smart, principled, pragmatic centrist.
Only those out in the right see him as a leftist. And this brings me to yet
another shattered myth: that this race was Obama's to lose. Nonsense. It was
never Obama's race to lose for one reason- he's black, and any assessments by
talking heads and columnists that lack this component of the race is not worth
a cent; as proven by McCain's racist campaign tactics. The reason McCain sank
so low was because- unlike Kerry, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern, and
Goldwater, he will <b><i>not</i></b> be a footnote to history. He will always,
now and forever, be the first white male to lose the American Presidency to a
non-white and/or non-male person. He will likely be the most remembered <b><i>loser</i></b>
in American Presidential history. And that stings to a guy like McCain. And
don't give me any of that garbage about the media being in the tank for Obama-
their lowest common denominator minions pounced all over l'affaires </span>Wright,
Rezko, and Ayers. But, the fact was that Obama's explanations were truthful,
and nothing stuck because they were just bogus smears.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p class="MsoHeader"><span style="">&nbsp; </span>In 2004, I said
that stuff in this nation would have to get worse before the dumb and lazy
American electorate would get off their asses and do the right thing. And they
did, and do you think that we are now better prepared for the future under
President Obama than President Kerry? I do. Recall that Ralph Nader, in 2000,
correctly noted that there was little difference between the Democratic and
Republican parties. The Democrats were (and, sans Obama, Howard Dean, and a few
others) basically Republicans Lite. They were a party of ciphers- seemingly
determined to prove Nader correct, on issues like tax cuts, the Supreme Court
appointees, the Iraq war, and many others, even if one grants the Republicans
as the party of evil. The fact was that for a decade or more, after Newt
Gingrich's rise and fall, the Republicans, at least, had ideas. Mostly bad,
granted, but given a choice between a bad thing and nothing at all, the vast
majority of people will always choose the bad something over the cipher. It's a
hallmark of the lazy, indifferent, and plain old stupid way most people
approach their votes. After all, one cannot argue for the general intelligence
of the American public when the vast majority cannot balance their bank
accounts every month, much less be wary enough in regards to more complex
creatures like variable rate mortgages.</p><p class="MsoHeader"><br /></p>

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="">&nbsp;
</span>And that fact- the human tendency to choose something over nothing, is
the principle reason Obama is President-Elect today; because he stands for
things, not just against Republicans. He and his posse are brimming with ideas;
most of them sound; a few specious- such as tax cuts for most, when the nation
is in an economic spiral. But, if I'm proven wrong, as I was in 1992, when I
gave a chance to an untested governor named Bill Clinton, I'll have no
compunction over turning my back on Obama, as I did Clinton, four years later;
because, in fact, it will have ultimately been Obama who turned his back on me,
and the electorate. But, I'm hoping that will not happen, for, there have only
been a few pivotal Presidential elections in American history. The first was
Democrat Andrew Jackson's 1824 loss to proto-Whig John Quincy Adams, after he
won both the Popular and Electoral College votes, but was robbed of the
Presidency in the House Of Representatives. This thwarting of the <i>will of
the people</i> (far more blatant than even the now, inconsequential Supreme
Court selection of George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000- for that changed
nothing four years later) by oligarchs (Adams was the son of a Founding Father
and former President, John Adams) eventually led to Jackson's victory over
Adams in 1828, and instituted the first reform of democracy to include poorer
white males, and a thirty year dominance by Democrats. It also led, eventually,
to the disaster of States' Rights, but so be it. 1860 was the next turning
point, and Republican Abraham Lincoln's win over Democrats John C. Breckinridge
and Stephen A. Douglas (for reasons so manifest as not to need mentioning) led
to seven decades of Republican rule, until Herbert Hoover's and the Republican
's disastrous handling of the 1929 Stock Market Crash led to the Great
Depression, and the ascendancy of Democrats. This third great electoral turning
point lasted almost forty years, until the Age of Nixon, caused by the well
documented self-immolation of the 1968 Democratic National Convention,
precipitated by President Johnson's disastrous Vietnam War policies. Nixon's
win was not so much about his bona fides as the Democrats' lack of them, but he
was so skilled a politician that he paved the way for Reagan and the Bushes to
push the country, yet again, to another brink of disaster.</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p>

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="">&nbsp;
</span>So, now, for the fifth time in our nation's 232 year history, a new era
is potentially upon us. The first was born out of the bitterness of dishonest
defeat, and the disenfranchisement of millions; the second out of the victory
over hatred surrounding the noxious legacy and future of slavery; the third out
of the victory due to the depths of the worst economic crisis in world history;
the fourth due to the electoral defeat of liberalism by its then-chief proponent;
and now this one, due to the victory of hope and positivity in the face of a
Presidency that plunged the nation into two wars (one falsely inaugurated), the
deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents and soldiers, an economic disaster
second only to the Great Depression, and a host of smaller social ills.</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p>

<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="">&nbsp;
</span>Obama won not because he is black, but because he was the best
candidate. Period. He ran a clean and positive campaign in an era of sleaze,
xenophobia, and racism. Here's hoping that President Obama lives up to the
rhetoric he preached on the stump. If he does, then he may crash the canonical
triumvirate of inarguably great American Presidents: George Washington, Abraham
Lincoln, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If not, and despite all the historic implications
of his election, his Presidency will be recalled only for that- his election.
All Americans should pull for the former. I will. </p>

<br /><br /><br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Campaign 2008: What Was And What Will Be</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/campaign-2008-what-was-and-wha.php" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk//17.198686</id>
   
   <published>2008-06-04T17:21:40Z</published>
   <updated>2008-06-04T17:21:40Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Copyright © by Dan Schneider, 6/4/08 &nbsp; I am a political Independent who has voted in the last three Presidential General Elections for Ralph Nader. I did so, despite my Democratic roots, because I am a pragmatist and the last...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>cosmoetica</name>
      <uri>http://www.cosmoetica.com/</uri>
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Election Central" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/cosmoetica/">
      <![CDATA[Copyright © by Dan Schneider, 6/4/08<br />

<p>&nbsp; I am a political
Independent who has voted in the last three Presidential General Elections for
Ralph Nader. I did so, despite my Democratic roots, because I am a pragmatist
and the last three Republican candidates for President were unappealing- not a
budding Abe Lincoln nor Teddy Roosevelt in the lot. In 1992 I voted for Bill
Clinton because of the disastrous 12 years of Reagan-Bush policies that
destroyed the middle class, decimated the poor, and threatened civil liberties
with their radical agenda for the Supreme Court. The choice was clear. The only
other choices were the elder George Bush, who reaped the evil Ronald Reagan
sowed, or a psychotic billionaire dwarf named Ross Perot, whose only
vindication, all these years later, is that he was correct about the large
flushing sound created by NAFTA. In 1996, after turning his back on the working
class people who elected him, I turned my back on the President. Bob Dole was
old and out of touch, as well as unwilling to shin the vile Right Wing
Christians in his party, so I decided to never again do the <i>lesser of two
evils</i> schtick. I voted for the most intelligent and honest person running,
Ralph Nader, the consumer advocate, and one of the greatest Americans of the
Twentieth Century. I thereby took responsibility as a citizen in saying <b><i>no</i></b>
to the corrupt duopoly of American politics, and washed my hands of the
nonsense and wasted time that the next four years wrought.</p>

<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;In 2000, two candidates who thought they were
owed the Presidency by divine right ran. There was Vice President Al Gore, who
thought so because of his political lineage and ties to President Clinton’s
shallow economic successes which still left working class people in a worse
position than they were eight years earlier. But, I saw Gore as a hack- a Right
of Center Democrat with no real defining persona, and the Clinton-Gore years as
a disaster for the ecology. Many nature groups claimed that the Democratic
pair’s policies were worse than the preceding twelve years under Reagan Bush.
Yet, Gore felt that he was owed the Presidency. Even more bizarrely, the
Republican nominee, George W. Bush, felt he was owed the nomination because his
dad had been President. After all, his ties to daddy had gotten him the Texas
governorship where he actually did a good impersonation of Bill Clinton’s
Presidency, not doing much of consequence. Yet, he was clearly even worse than
Gore. Everyone, in all parties, saw that Bush was, in a phrase, <i>dumb as shit</i>,
but he was more likable than the stiff and arrogant Gore. Both parties had
chances to nominate better candidates for their parties. Democrats had the
intelligent and principled former Senator Bill Bradley to pick, and Republicans
had the straight-talking (pre-Iraq War Look-Aid drinking) Senator John McCain.
Democrats ignored Bradley and McCain was slimed by Bush’s Christian Coalition.</p>

<p>&nbsp; Naturally, <a href="http://www.cosmoetica.com/B142-DES91.htm">the American electorate</a> showed
its utter stupidity and gave the rest of us the two most miserable candidates
to choose from. As I did four years earlier, I chose Ralph Nader. Then, what
should have been a blowout win for Gore turned into a nailbiter, and when
thousands of black citizens were denied their right to vote in Florida, by
Bush’s brother Jeb- the state’s governor, Bush won the state by a few hundred
votes, and recounts were demanded, for, even despite the racist nature of
denying the vote, Gore still actually won Florida, if one counted ‘hanging
chads’ and dimpled ballots that clearly showed a preference for Gore. Then, in
a move that vindicated all the worst fears of the arrogant Gore, Democrats
blamed not Bush, and not Gore’s errors, for his loss, but the tiny portion of Nader
voters for ‘robbing them,’ as if Nader voters were, by fiat, supposed to vote
for Gore, who even lost his home state of Tennessee to Bush. The Supreme Court,
stacked with Right Wingers from the Reagan-Bush years, then handed Bush the
election by voting to not overturn things 5-4. Despite a popular vote win of
more than half a million people, one Supreme Court justice selected the next
President.</p>

<p>&nbsp; Less than a year
later, with the economy failing, and Bush having undercut the Clinton gains
with a tax giveaway to the rich, who’ve never paid a fair share of their way in
this nation’s history, 9/11 happened. We were attacked despite many warnings of
it coming, that Bush ignored. Prior to 9/11, Bush had spent fewer days on the
job than any President with a similar length of service as President.
Vacationing was his mode, and, yet 9/11 made him instantly popular. He did
nothing any other President would not do, yet his approval ratings soared to
90%, even as the economy tanked, and he spent the next year and a half lying
the country into war with Iraq over WMDs that were nonexistent. The war has
been a total failure and likely a disaster that will haunt American foreign
policy for decades. The reality was a handful of psychotic criminals gulled the
only global superpower into a war when a few well placed assassins and a trial
or two would have ended things nicely. But, Bush wanted to go to war to a)
avenge the attempt on his father’s life by agents of Saddam Hussein after the
First Gulf War and b) assuage the oil barons that helped him to power.</p>

<p>&nbsp; By 2004, with the
war already having gone over a year past expected, with casualties mounting,
and the economy failing, and with the lies that started the <a href="http://www.cosmoetica.com/B194-DES135.htm">war being exposed</a>, and the
fact that 9/11 was preventable on the table, the Democrats had a very
vulnerable President. They offered up an ex-general, Wesley Clark, who handled
the Bosnian War with much more grace than his successors did in Iraq. They
offered up a Clintonesque Southern lawyer turned Senator named John Edwards,
but they chose the worst possible candidate going- John Kerry- a Vietnam War
hero, but one who was divisive, had a very liberal track record, was a
patrician, and worst of all, like Al; Gore, was stiff as Lurch from <i>The
Addams Family</i>, and a terrible campaigner. What should have been another one
term Bush Presidency was denied, as Kerry allowed lies about his past to go
unanswered, while Bush won another close contest- this time legitimately. I
again voted for Nader, given the ridiculous choices the two big parties
offered, and shook my head as millions of my dimwitted countrymen refused to
take responsibility for their actions. This time, Nader was not blamed, but
Democrats were in disarray.</p>

<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;Then came Bush’s Social Security scheme,
Hurricane Katrina, a flurry of Republican sex scandals, a tanking economy, the
mortgage crisis, soaring inflation due to rising gas costs, and a whole host of
lesser problems. The Democrats took back the House of Representatives in 2006
after a generation in Republican hands. Then, by late 2006, the endless
campaign for 2008 began. The Republicans offered up ex-New York Mayor Rudy
Giuliani, who like Bush, became a hero of 9/11 by doing nothing any other mayor
would not do, despite low approval ratings of his own; the oleaginous governor
of Massachusetts- Mitt Romney; and an affable ex-pator turned governor of
Arkansas named Mike Huckabee. They all lost to a resurgent John McCain who,
after being humiliated by Bush in 2000, became the President’s biggest Iraq War
supporter. He stumbled early in the campaign, but rallied to beat the robotic
Romney, the surprisingly tough Huckabee, and Giuliani- who ran the worst
national campaign in modern political history.</p>

<p>&nbsp;
By contrast, the Democratic side seemed easy. Former First Lady and New
York Senator Hillary Clinton was declared the ‘inevitable nominee, and for a
year did little real campaigning. Running against her was a field of mostly
unknowns, and now ex-Senator John Edwards, considered by many to be her only
possible rival. But, emerging from the field was Senator Barack Obama, from
Illinois. He developed a large grassroots campaign that reached out to millions
of Americans who were disaffected or had never voted, and got them to donate
small amounts of money. His campaign out-organized Clinton’s, and shocked the
world with a victory in the Iowa caucuses. Caucuses were not like primaries, in
that they were smaller, but with more passionate and informed participants.
Clinton backers were stunned, for Clinton’s aura of inevitability was breached.
She rallied to win the first New Hampshire primary, after crying in public, a
stunt that- had a man done it (recall Ed Muskie in 1972) his campaign would
have been done, and reclaimed the mantle of inevitability. But, Obama
persisted, and they split wins in states up until February’s Super Tuesday.
Getting past that date, which Clinton saw as her crowning date, meant that
Obama had already gone farther than expected. Clinton had no plans for a
campaign beyond that, and her coffers were running dry while Obama’s grew. He
then won eleven consecutive state contests, the thing which gave him an
insurmountable delegate and popular vote lead, even though Clinton rallied to
split the remaining contests with Obama, and even though she won larger states.
Her arrogance and ignorance of smaller states cost her dearly.</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
Yet, Clinton refused to admit her defeat, and started a campaign of
‘personal destruction’ like that Republicans used against her husband.
Whispered rumors of Obama’s being a Muslim were used, the ex-President,
himself, alienated black voters with multiple comments of a racial vein, and
the Clinton campaign tried to magnify small distractions outside of Obama’s
purview (such as an ex-pastor’s televised rants, or Obama’s hazy ties to a real
estate developer and an ex-Weatherman) against him, even though incidents like
Vince Foster’s suicide, Whitewater, Travelgate, Monica Lewinsky, and Clinton’s
own last minute pardons of 1960s radicals were all used against them. Then came
the trump card- the faux cries of sexism. As proof were a few yahoos in Clinton
crowds yelling misogynistic remarks. But, Obama never played the race card even
though he was asked pointed questions of race, and had hecklers of his own.
From her New Hampshire crying stunt onwards, Hillary Clinton wanted to be able
to cry sexism despite blatant appeals to women touting her ‘softer side.’ By
contrast, not once did Obama strike the pose as a ‘gangsta’ to appeal to young blacks.
Then there was the now infamous Pennsylvania ‘debate.’ aired by ABC, in which
hosts Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos clearly favored Clinton, giving
her a pass on such things like her easily disproved lie of being First Lady and
flying into a war zone with her daughter in Bosnia. Instead, they focused on
the above mentioned nonsense, in an attempt to taint Obama to already
racist-leaning whites in Appalachia, with such important queries as to Obama’s
not wearing a U.S. flag lapel pin.</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
But, most insidious of all was the mainstream media’s utter gullibility
in swallowing all of Clinton’s claims with no further examination. The first
and most obviously disprovable one was her claim of being ‘more experienced’
than Barack Obama. As of the star of this year, Clinton had seven years of
public service as a U.S. Senator to Obama’s three. But, Obama had served eight
years in the Illinois State Senate, giving him four more years of ‘experience
than Clinton. Both had years of service in the private sector, as lawyers,
professors, community activists, etc., but Clinton’s claim was, on its face, a
disprovable lie the media never mentioned. In effect, Clinton claimed as
experience, her husband’s years of service as President and governor of
Arkansas, as if the ribbon-cuttings of First Ladyship were qualifications.
Imagine never having gone to medical school, but your husband is a brain
surgeon, and claiming that qualified you you to be a surgeon. It’s simply
absurd.</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
There were many other instances of Clinton’s control of the media
narrative, even as she claimed that the press was pro-Obama. The most
ridiculous being that she has won the popular vote in the Democratic primaries.
This is factually wrong. In the five major metrics, Obama beat Clintom in all of
them. He won more delegates, more superdelegates, more primaries, more
caucuses, and more popular votes. With the last of the primaries, in South
Dakota and Montana, done, let us look at the stats. Even Clinton cannot dispute
Obama’s delegate and superdelegate wins. Nor can she claim that she won more
primaries or caucuses. Her only claim is that she won the popular vote. There
are many different claims, but they are all fairly consonant, so I will use the
stats of the Political news aggregator site <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html">Real
Clear Politics</a>: Despite not counting caucus totals, Obama has an over
40,000 vote lead- a much greater than the ‘lead’ Bush had over Gore in Florida
in 2000. Yet, that does not count the votes cast in caucus states, and since
Caucus states have lower turnouts, it also underrepresents real support.
Nonetheless, Obama’s popular vote margin is over 150k with the caucus tallies.
Still a close race in a contest where nearly 40 million people participated,
and not even counting the organized efforts by Republicans to cross over and
vote for Clinton to screw Obama. These figures do not include the Michigan
primary, where Obama played by the rules and did not campaign. As in Florida,
Obama and Edwards played by the rules, and after pledging to also do so,
Clinton broke her promise when she ‘won’ the two contests. But, in Florida,
many stayed home because they knew the Democrats were not going to certify the
vote, and the same is true in Michigan, where, even without Obama on the
ballot, he still got 40% of the vote with uncommitted. While Clinton would
likely have squeaked by in Florida, Obama, most polls showed, would have won
Michigan. Does anyone think gaining 11% of the vote would have been difficult
had he campaigned there, and gotten the 40% uncommitted, as well?</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
Some argue that the compromise reached at the DNC Rules Committee this
past weekend means the votes were legitimized. Not so- it only means they were
used as a guidestick to apportion the delegates, and the Obama camp generously
allowed the Clintons, despite their cheating, to have the majority of delegates
for those two states. The penalty was only half a vote for those two states.
So, let us start with a 152k lead for Obam,a in all the primaries, and also
remove the Florida tally, which, unlike Michigan, the RCP numbers counts. Thus,
in all sanctioned contests in states and territories, Obama gains the 294,000
margin he lost the Florida primary to Clinton. That means he actually won the
real popular vote by 446,000 votes, or almost thje margin Gore beat Bush by the
popular vote in 2000. But, even applying Clintonian logic, if we use the DNC
judgment that each vote should be half a vote, Clinton’s 294,000 edge in
Florida becomes 147,000 and her edge over Obama’s uncommitted- 88,000, in
Michigan, becomes 44,000. That changes Obama’s 446,000 vote win to 255,000. A
quarter of a million votes is not chump change. Clinton can only claim a
popular vote win if she discounts all the Michigan uncommitted, adds the two
invalid primaries, and discounts all of Obama’s caucus wins. Now, imagine a
professional sports league, at the end of their season, declaring that a team
that made the playoffs, due to regular season wins, was being favored for a
team that did not, but finished three games behind the in the regular season,
but had four more preseason victories- games that all the participants
acknowledge do not count. It’s absurd, and would be laughable. Yet, even
illegitimately doing that, popular vote is not the issue. Clinton’s own
campaign only raised that issue when it became clear she would lose the popular
vote legitimately, and after they had, for all of 2007, said the race was based
on the delegate count.</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
Now, let’s turn to a final issue, re: Senator Clinton. We have seen that
two major claims she makes are phony. 1) she is less experienced than Obama in
politics, and 2) she has lost in all five major metrics for the Democratic
Presidential nomination. Why was she running for President? Given her
inexperience, her support of Bush’s wars, and her lackluster Senate record, her
candidacy would be a joke, save for her last name. Imagine she were Hillary
Jones, Senator from Idaho. Would she have ever been considered ‘inevitable’?
Would she have won a single primary or caucus? Would she have even outdone
Shirley Chisholm’s 1972 run fro the Presidency? Given her temperament, her
horrible skills on the stump (just watch Bill campaign for her and the chasm
between their people skills is gaping), her lackluster debating skills, and her
air of arrogance and personal baggage, it’s a joke. And, had it not been for
Rudy Giuliani’s disastrous run for President, her campaign would be proclaimed
the worst run primary campaign in recent history. If she could not even run a
good campaign, with all of her built in advantages and pedigree, her claims of
being ready from ‘Day One’ to be President seem utterly silly. Who else but
someone with her last name (and recall how quickly the ‘Rodham’ disappeared
when it was convenient to siphon off her husband’s name) could have lost eleven
consecutive races by blowouts, wasted millions of dollars, and survived
politically? And, if she could not discern Bush’s lies about the Iraq War, nor
handle her husband while he was n office, much less on the stump, how can she
be expected to clean up the Bush mess? Add to that Clinton fatigue, her
delusions and narcissism (witness her supposed concession speech after Obama
clinched the nomination)- especially opposed to Obama’s ‘new politics. Her
whole campaign was based upon the fallacy that Democrats wanted a third term
for Bill Clinton. They did not. Nor do they want a third term for George W.
Bush.</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
Thus, I turn from where we’ve been to where we are going, and the
McCain-Obama race. I voted for Obama in the Texas primary, and will do so in
the fall, because he embodies many of the traits that Ralph Nader does. He has
risen above the politics of division- just read the text of his ‘race speech.’
He has also seen circumstances favor him- a black man, like rarely happens.
Five years ago he was unknown. Now he has a better than 50-50 shot against
McCain, and I will sketch out his path to electoral victory, which I feel will
split the difference between the two electoral victories Bush and Clinton
claimed.</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
But, let me just state that there will be a female President. But, she
will follow the Obama path to victory, not the Clinton one. She will be
relatively unknown, but savvy, not fat and sassy. She will work hard and catch
a historical break like Obama did- the wake of the Bush disaster, thus be
created by her times; most likely unforeseen even in the prior election cycle.
She will represent the best of her sex, not the worst, as Obama does of his
race; and she will exude humility and vision- two things Hillary Clinton cannot
even define, much less embody. Recall how, in the early 1990s, Hillary Clinton-
like many arrogant Feminists, mocked stay at home moms with her ‘cookie-baking’
remark? She will also work to win the nomination, not just expect it
giftwrapped because of who she is. Recall, the last time we had a President
with such a sense of entitlement we got the current President. She will also
show more aplomb and class in defeats- witness Clinton’s demagoguery about
Florida and Michigan- after she broke her word, comparing them to Zimbabwe’s
human rights violations or the civil rights movement, despite the fact that the
two states knowingly flouted party rules, thus disenfranchising voters, no
matter the outcome. Yet, still Obama compromised, only to be scorned as a fool
by the Clinton supporters for his fairly playing by the rules. Even Donna
Brazile- a well known Democratic flack, was stunned at how the Clinton people
treated the magnanimity of Obama, when he was wholly in the right.</p><p><br /></p>

<p>&nbsp;
Now, on to the general election. I said that Obama will win with a count
between the Bush and Clinton Margins- thus in the low 300s of the 538 total
electoral votes. There are many electoral maps, but let me use <a href="http://www.270towin.com/">this one</a>. And let’s start with the 2004
electoral map, which had a 286-251 win for Bush over Kerry, which was really
286-252 because of a Kerry Voter switching to Edwards. Working on the
presumption that McCain and Obama would win the same states, that’s a 286-252
win for McCain. I will now be generous in my estimations for McCain. Of the
Democratic states McCain could pick up we have really only Michigan and New
Jersey, with 17 and 15 electoral votes respectively. Those lost 32 means
Obama’s got a solid 220 electoral votes. On the other hand, there are far more
many states in play on McCain’s side, because, unlike Clinton (who would follow
the Gore-Kerry losing strategy), Obama would be waging an offensive not
defensive campaign. Let’s see the Bush states that are no cinch for McCain: The
Democrats have made big gains out west, so Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and New
Mexico are in play. That’s 3, 3, 9, and 5 votes. Toss in Nevada’s 5, and Bush's
286 goes to 261. Iowa went Bush, but went crazy for Obama- so I see that in
play. Minus 7 = 254 for McCain. A bad economy and the war means that the
Mississippi Valley is in play. Missouri has 11, Arkansas 6, Louisiana 9 (adding
in Hurricane Katrina resentment), and Mississippi 6 (more Katrina) are in play,
especially with likely record black turnouts. 254 minus 32 = 222. Now, McCain’s
secure lead is only 2 electoral votes ahead of Obama. Florida is in play- so
that’s 27 votes Mac has to work for- or down to 195. The Carolinas are likely
still Republican, but one might go for Obama. Let’s be conservative and say
it’s South Carolina’s 8 votes. McCain is now down to 179. The two Virginias are
in play. West Virginia is 5, and Virginia 13 votes. Mac now at 161 solid
electoral votes. That leaves Indiana and Ohio as Bush states in play. Ohio
because of the economy and Indiana because it’s close to Illinois. That’s 20
and 11, 31 more Red State votes in play means 130 solid votes for McCain and
228 for Obama.</p><p><br /></p><p>
&nbsp; That means McCain needs to rack up 140
electoral votes to Obama’s 42. Let’s go with likely results and polling. First
up is out West: McCain gets 11 votes from Wyoming, Nevada and Montana- in two
squeakers, while Obama turns New Mexico and Colorado blue, for 14 votes = an
Obama 242-141 lead, as the Democrats pick up growing Hispanic bases in both the
states, as well as immigrants from back east. Now, let’s give Mac Michigan and
Florida, due to resentment over the Democratic primaries, and Obama leads
242-185, although I think Michigan will likely stay Democratic, and Florida
could also flip. But, the best case for McCain, here. Onto the Mississippi
valley: Missouri and Iowa border Illinois, so Obama gets them- he’s up to 260.
Of Arkansas, Mississipi, and Louisiana, I think Obama gets 1 of the 3- likely
Mississippi, with the biggest black population. That’s 15 for McCain, and 6 for
Obama. Tally = 266-200 Obama.</p><p><br /></p><p>
&nbsp; Now, Obama will retain New Jersey and
win over Ohio- the economy is just too bad, and even a half-hearted help from
Clinton and local politicians will put him over the top. But, McCain picks off
Indiana’s Republican majority. So, now Obama has a 301-211 lead, and he’s the
first black President, with 3 Dixie states to go. Georgia stays Red- 15 votes =
226, and the Virginias split- Virginia goes Blue with 13, and West Virginia
stays Red, with 5. Obama wins 314-2224. But, let’s say Dixie stays red, and
Virginia, South Carolina and Mississippi go McCain: McCain- now it’s 287-251
Obama- or an electoral vote better than Bush in 2004. But, if being realistic,
ravaged Michigan stays blue, due to record turnout- so now it’s 304-234, Obama.
Now, let’s say the West (Colorado &amp; New Mexico) stays Red and Iowa and
Missouri stay Red. Obama still squeaks by 272-266. But, that ignores
demographics, the Obama phenomenon, the war, and the economy. Whether slim or
solid, Obama will have McCain on the defensive throughout the year. Giving
Obama Michigan, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, and ceding South Carolina,
and Mississippi gives Obama a reasonable 317-221 win.</p><p><br /> </p>

<p>&nbsp;
Plus, there are a variety of events that could lead to even better Obama
numbers- the reverted loyalty of Clinton supporters, the enthusiasm of Obama
supporters drowning out unrepentant racists, a good VP choice like Senator Evan
Bayh of Indiana to turn Indiana and Ohio Blue, and McCain’s gaffe-ability. Can
you imagine the shit-eating grin and sneer McCain used against Mitt Romney
working in a debate with a younger, more informed, and more confident Obama?
The stench of a flustered old man could easily give Obama South Carolina ns
Mississippi back, plus Nevada and Montana. and we are at 339-199, Obama. And,
if we are going best case scenario, if one of the Carolinas flips, it could be
North not South, and in that case were are 346-192, or if both go, 354-184. In
1992, Clinton beat Bush 370-168 and in 1996 he bumped it up to 379-159. So,
when I state Obama can and will likely win between Bush’s totals of 271 and 286
and Clinton’s margins, I think it’s a reasonable outcome, barring Obama’s
campaign derailing after defeating a much tougher Clinton candidacy.</p>

<p>&nbsp; As to other
pundit’s predictions. I don’t think there’s a chance McCain can win
Pennsylvania- it’s gone more Democratic in the last eight years, and has reams
of black voters who will cast their first votes for Obama. Michigan and Ohio
could both go blue, but, even in my above scenarios, I give McCain Ohio and
Obama Michigan. If Obama gets Ohio and its wretched economy augurs he might
(forget the primaries) then he could reach Clinton’s electoral numbers. Republicans
feel Minnesota and Wisconsin are in play. I lived there a dozen years, and they
might go Red with a Republican who was against the war and not a Bush acolyte.
McCain keeps them Blue by 5-10% points. This is not 2000 nor 2004, and Obama is
not Gore and Kerry- he is now tougher due to the Clintonian mud machine, and
people respond to it. But, like it or not. McCain is neither himself from eight
years ago, nor has he the affability that Bush used to get over the top. Add to
that a wrecked economy, Obama touting McCain’s support for a war 75% of
Americans oppose and acknowledge a mistake, the most unpopular Republican
President in office since Nixon or Hoover (depending on which polls you
believe), and a desire for change, and you have the makings of history.</p>

<p>&nbsp; But, let me now
outline Obama’s strengths, since the bulk of this essay has detailed how he
differs from Hillary Clinton and John McCain. First, while there is a broad
consonance with the overall views Senator Clinton has, there is a great deal of
difference, and it only starts with Obama’s opposition to the war in Iraq. As a
grassroots organizer, Obama’s solutions are bottom up, not top down, as
Clinton’s are, with Beltway insiders and ‘experts’ crafting policy. Obama wants
to throw open the political process and have commissions and hearings broadcast
on C-SPAN. This is precisely why many Republicans, and more Independents, lean
toward him. While they may not agree with an end, they find his approach more
suited to theirs, Clinton’s, or Bush’s. His healthcare plan is the best offered
this year- far better than McCain’s health accounts nonsense, and without the
No Child Left Behind-like mandates of the Clinton plan. The fact is that there
will be no truly universal medical coverage unless Medicare is expanded, and
that’s more likely to come under a freethinking oBama than Clinton or McCain.
His foreign policy of being open stands in stark contrast to the hundred years
war of McCain and the ‘Nuke Iran’ posturing of Clinton. Unlike McCain and Clinton,
Obama made waste of the silly and gimmicky gas tax holiday those two touted.</p>

<p>&nbsp;
And, even with all the bruising of the Democratic nomination battle,
McCain is still a few percentage points behind nationally, and Obama can win
states Clinton would never have a chance in. McCain has squandered the
opportunity that most early clinching candidates get, while Obama conserved
cash over the last several months, forcing the Clinton campaign into virtual
bankruptcy, while flying in on cruise control the last two months, splitting
the last 16 contests, and actually winning Texas- his slim 100,000 vote loss
(due to Republican tactics) was more than offset by a huge caucus win that
netted him more delegates from the state. As for Obama the man? He has just one
real negative to work on- he has to man up, and be a little harder on McCain.
He went easy on Clinton, partly because she’s a woman and partly because he did
not want to appear the Angry Negro. He wanted to be Sidney Poitier not Wesley
Snipes. But, while spurning the Good Negro, he need not become Angry, merely
Passionate. He will kill McCain in the debates, especially on the Iraq war.
What could Clinton really say to differentiate herself from McCain?</p>

<p>&nbsp; As for Clinton as
Vice President? Forget it. She would cost far more votes than she adds. 50% of
people won’t vote for her to start with, and her recent petulance and deceit
has only turned off more people. Obama might reap 1 or 2% in the female vote,
but lose 3-4 times as many voters to the Independent-appealing McCain. Plus,
Bill Clinton and his post-Presidency financial ties, could cost even more,
while Hillary could never sublimate her ego for the good of the ticket. She has
not done so for the party even though, as shown, were she not a Clinton her
candidacy would have been long over. Instead, Obama should just blithely ignore
her like the crazy old aunt of the Democratic Party she’s fast becoming. He is
the best candidate for President left (I originally backed Edwards, but his
game-playing in the endorsement folly lost him points in my book- speaking of
manning up)- easily better than Hillary Clinton and John McCain and, yes, even
better than the man I voted for the last three times out. There won’t be a
fourth one. Sorry, Ralph, but you’re still a hero in my book. Be ready to serve
when President Obama calls on you next year.</p>

<br />]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

</feed>

 
