« Campaign 2008: What Was And What Will Be | cosmoetica's Blog

The Coming Centrist Obama Presidency


Copyright © by Dan Schneider, 11/5/08

  Given Senator Barack Obama's victory over Senator John McCain, last night, now is the time to dispel a few myths about what it all means. But first, let me toot my own horn a bit, for way back in early June I predicted here that the man would win with between 300 and 320 electoral votes; months before others came to a similar feeling. Most pundits foresaw another squeaker, ala 2000 or 2004. I did not; and it seems I was even too cautious. As of this morning, Obama holds a 349-163 electoral vote lead, with only North Carolina's 15 and Missouri's 11 outstanding. It looks like North Carolina will fall into Obama's camp later today, with Missouri too close to call. McCain has a slight lead, but thousands of provisional ballots from urban areas could swing it to Obama, in a week or so. The final tally will likely be 364-174 or 375-163 Obama.


  Now, to mythbusting. First, the biggest myth going around is that Obama's victory tolled the end for the 'Reagan Revolution, nearly three decades ago. Truth be told, the Reagan Revolution was never real, and the much touted 'Age Of Reagan' also never was. Instead, last night's victory signaled the end of several things. The first was the end of the Nixon Era. Yes, that Nixon. For without Richard Nixon and his Southern Strategy, Ronald Reagan's Presidency would never have come to pass. People forget that throughout his twelve year quest for the presidency, prior to 1980, Governor Ronald Reagan was pretty much considered a joke candidate- and not just across America, but within the Republican Party. That's because he was an intellectual lightweight, and seen as a pale imitation of Senator Barry Goldwater, the true father of the modern, and now discredited, Conservative movement.


  The fact is that Reagan innovated nothing- not ideas nor strategy, and were it not for the mediocre performance of President Jimmy Carter and the Iran Hostage crisis, Reagan would likely never have come within sniffing distance of the White House. That's because it was Nixon's own brand of personal viciousness that put flesh and life on the skeletal ideas and vision of Goldwater that Reagan merely refried. The last four decades of Right Wing ascendancy have not been noted for any great innovations in political governance, but the  rising tide of personal invective, wedge issues, and the nurturing of celebrity over quality. All of these things are quintessentially Nixonian, not Reaganesque. Yes, there is some truth to the old adage that Johnson started the Great Society, but Nixon funded it. Yet, that was less ideology than placating rabble rousers as Nixon vainly tried to end the Vietnam War. From Watergate to the Enemies List to illegal bombings in Cambodia to attacking opponents on personal levels; all of this has only flowered, especially on the Right. Reagan simply needed a Nixon to flourish, and, so, the last forty years of politics, that came to an end last night, get the imprimatur of the larger historical figure, for good or ill, and that figure is indisputably Nixon.


  But, there is likely (and hopefully) an even greater historical page turning that took place; and that was the official end of Twentieth Century politics, almost eight years (or nine, depending on your wont) after history turned that page. That end came not because racism itself died, but because the assumptions of it (such as the main one- a black man could never be President) died. Granted, one election won't change totally the dynamic, but it can be a tipping point. That said, a good four years (and it cannot be worse than last 8) from Obama will do the trick, for the racist white male vote- and is there any better emblem for that than the wannabe Skinhead poster boy (do you think the McCain campaign even realized the symbolism?), Joe the Plumber (aka Sam the Scammer, aka Sam Worzelbacher; not Wurzelbacher)- will fade to demographic irrelevance.


  This is because, despite the dronings on of assorted talking heads, the USA has never been a Center Right country, but a Center Left one. Republicans have never so much won elections than the Democrats have lost them. Don't believe that Liberalism has always been ascendant, and is indeed inexorable? Just look back at this nation's own history, and go back in quarter century chunks. One will see that every quarter century that passes sees the opening up of society into a freer way of living. 2008 is freer and better than 1983, which surpassed 1958, which was better than 1933, etc. Going back in times sees shackles being added, not removed- from Jim Crow to Suffragism to child labor to slavery, etc. And this bit of reality also has the benefit of taking into account the cyclical nature of things real and political. Yes, at a given moment, the culture may be a bit less liberal than a few years before, but it's still significantly more open and progressive than the most conservative nadir of the prior cycle. The same is true that the liberal upswing of society always goes higher with each acme of the cycle. Go ahead, try to argue against reality.


  So, with two myths shot, let's look at the claims that Obama is a radical, or a Socialist, or the 'Most Liberal' (shiver) Senator in the U.S. Senate. If so, why did he have a sizable following amongst Republicans (Obamacans); as well as endorsements from many prominent Republicans? Because, while Republicans preach the bottom up approach to problem solving, neither the Bush Administration, nor John Mccain, have shown that they approach problems that way. Instead, both hired high priced advisers to design solutions. In fact, this was probably the reason Obama defeated the similarly-minded Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. They all approached problem solving from the top down. But, Obama, the old grassroots organizer, does the opposite. He lives the creed Republicans preach, even if with different ideas. Thus, his opinions on matters have a ring of sincerity that his opponents lacked. Think of how much John McCain's lack of economic innovation was likely due to his hiring of high priced experts and advisers, rather than genuine study and cogitation.


  And, if one really looks at Obama's ideas on school choice, taxation, gun control, Supreme Court philosophy, abortion, the economy, and on and on, one finds a rather pragmatic, not dogmatic, approach. The reason so many claim him so far left is that the last quarter century has been so far right, with the brief Clinton interregnum of center right rule. And, yes, Clinton was hardly a leftist. Check out Clinton's record on NAFTA, the environment, public pieties, and a whole assortment of other issues. After all, it was Clinton who prematurely declared the era of big government to be over. Obama, by contrast, is firmly in the center of American thought, with his few deviations heading leftward. But, he's hardly a radical New Dealer- not that that was truly radical, either. But, even if he were, there's no way that he will be able to institute a fraction of the policies he'd like, because, unlike President Franklin Roosevelt, Obama is dealing from an enormous disadvantage in budget deficits and trade debt; all that's left from nearly three decades of failed supply side economics. And, if one doubts the failure, consider the astounding admissions by former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan that the economy is in the worst shape since the Great Depression because the 'free' market is really not a self-correcting process.


  The old trickle down supply side folly of Republican economic schemes to funnel wealth upward from the poor to the rich have finally played out. Consider the vaunted ideology related to tax cuts, that, even this year, both candidates gave lip service to. The fact is that there is simply no correlation between rates of taxation and rates of revenue- revenue growth is directly related to the health of an economy and factors other than taxation. After all, tax rates were at their highest under Eisenhower, and the economy boomed. The Laffer Curve, in all realistic taxation scenarios, is as mythic as Adam Smith's Invisible Hand. Don't think so? Here are the facts: Under Presidents Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush 2, taxes were cut and revenue grew. Aha, say you, see- the Supply Siders were right! Not so fast. Consider that under Presidents Reagan, Bush 1, and Clinton the rates of tax revenues reached successive records- and all that was after they raised taxes! And all three of those times saw the economy recovering from financial downturns. Even further; the national deficit and debt grew under Reagan and Bush 2, while it shrank under Clinton. Why? Because of factors other than taxation rates. In short, the whole argument is simply a sideshow designed by the far right to pay off their 'investors,' not because it has anything to do with national fiscal health. So, yes; although mocked, Senator Joe Biden was correct in calling the payment of taxes, for the good of the public, a patriotic thing. Taxes are not 'stealing,' but a de facto dues a citizen pays to share in the benefits the country's system brings- from defense to roads to Social Security- all what is known as 'the public commons.' No company or corporation (that fictive monster)- not Microsoft, Google, nor Walmart, has the fiscal capacity to pay for all of the infrastructure needed to bring goods and services to the public. They all should pay taxes because they all benefit from its bounty.


  And because Obama recognizes this, while McCain (at least publicly) does not, he got my vote, after three straight elections of voting for Ralph Nader. I do believe that, as the right claimed, Obama is a Manchirian Candidate- but for the middle and working classes, not for terrorists, Moslems, socialists, Communists, nor the like. He had to pay lip service to alot of bullshit (like being against gay marriage) just to get elected; so that he could stand against the Republican values of wholesale deregulation of industries and the concomitant redistribution of wealth, upward, is over. But, this makes him not a raging radical leftist, but a smart, principled, pragmatic centrist. Only those out in the right see him as a leftist. And this brings me to yet another shattered myth: that this race was Obama's to lose. Nonsense. It was never Obama's race to lose for one reason- he's black, and any assessments by talking heads and columnists that lack this component of the race is not worth a cent; as proven by McCain's racist campaign tactics. The reason McCain sank so low was because- unlike Kerry, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern, and Goldwater, he will not be a footnote to history. He will always, now and forever, be the first white male to lose the American Presidency to a non-white and/or non-male person. He will likely be the most remembered loser in American Presidential history. And that stings to a guy like McCain. And don't give me any of that garbage about the media being in the tank for Obama- their lowest common denominator minions pounced all over l'affaires Wright, Rezko, and Ayers. But, the fact was that Obama's explanations were truthful, and nothing stuck because they were just bogus smears.


  In 2004, I said that stuff in this nation would have to get worse before the dumb and lazy American electorate would get off their asses and do the right thing. And they did, and do you think that we are now better prepared for the future under President Obama than President Kerry? I do. Recall that Ralph Nader, in 2000, correctly noted that there was little difference between the Democratic and Republican parties. The Democrats were (and, sans Obama, Howard Dean, and a few others) basically Republicans Lite. They were a party of ciphers- seemingly determined to prove Nader correct, on issues like tax cuts, the Supreme Court appointees, the Iraq war, and many others, even if one grants the Republicans as the party of evil. The fact was that for a decade or more, after Newt Gingrich's rise and fall, the Republicans, at least, had ideas. Mostly bad, granted, but given a choice between a bad thing and nothing at all, the vast majority of people will always choose the bad something over the cipher. It's a hallmark of the lazy, indifferent, and plain old stupid way most people approach their votes. After all, one cannot argue for the general intelligence of the American public when the vast majority cannot balance their bank accounts every month, much less be wary enough in regards to more complex creatures like variable rate mortgages.


  And that fact- the human tendency to choose something over nothing, is the principle reason Obama is President-Elect today; because he stands for things, not just against Republicans. He and his posse are brimming with ideas; most of them sound; a few specious- such as tax cuts for most, when the nation is in an economic spiral. But, if I'm proven wrong, as I was in 1992, when I gave a chance to an untested governor named Bill Clinton, I'll have no compunction over turning my back on Obama, as I did Clinton, four years later; because, in fact, it will have ultimately been Obama who turned his back on me, and the electorate. But, I'm hoping that will not happen, for, there have only been a few pivotal Presidential elections in American history. The first was Democrat Andrew Jackson's 1824 loss to proto-Whig John Quincy Adams, after he won both the Popular and Electoral College votes, but was robbed of the Presidency in the House Of Representatives. This thwarting of the will of the people (far more blatant than even the now, inconsequential Supreme Court selection of George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000- for that changed nothing four years later) by oligarchs (Adams was the son of a Founding Father and former President, John Adams) eventually led to Jackson's victory over Adams in 1828, and instituted the first reform of democracy to include poorer white males, and a thirty year dominance by Democrats. It also led, eventually, to the disaster of States' Rights, but so be it. 1860 was the next turning point, and Republican Abraham Lincoln's win over Democrats John C. Breckinridge and Stephen A. Douglas (for reasons so manifest as not to need mentioning) led to seven decades of Republican rule, until Herbert Hoover's and the Republican 's disastrous handling of the 1929 Stock Market Crash led to the Great Depression, and the ascendancy of Democrats. This third great electoral turning point lasted almost forty years, until the Age of Nixon, caused by the well documented self-immolation of the 1968 Democratic National Convention, precipitated by President Johnson's disastrous Vietnam War policies. Nixon's win was not so much about his bona fides as the Democrats' lack of them, but he was so skilled a politician that he paved the way for Reagan and the Bushes to push the country, yet again, to another brink of disaster.


  So, now, for the fifth time in our nation's 232 year history, a new era is potentially upon us. The first was born out of the bitterness of dishonest defeat, and the disenfranchisement of millions; the second out of the victory over hatred surrounding the noxious legacy and future of slavery; the third out of the victory due to the depths of the worst economic crisis in world history; the fourth due to the electoral defeat of liberalism by its then-chief proponent; and now this one, due to the victory of hope and positivity in the face of a Presidency that plunged the nation into two wars (one falsely inaugurated), the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents and soldiers, an economic disaster second only to the Great Depression, and a host of smaller social ills.


  Obama won not because he is black, but because he was the best candidate. Period. He ran a clean and positive campaign in an era of sleaze, xenophobia, and racism. Here's hoping that President Obama lives up to the rhetoric he preached on the stump. If he does, then he may crash the canonical triumvirate of inarguably great American Presidents: George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If not, and despite all the historic implications of his election, his Presidency will be recalled only for that- his election. All Americans should pull for the former. I will.





25 Comments

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Awesome. Too long for me to finish right now, but I'll try to come back to it.

You make many of the same arguments I made in my blog this morning. Democrats can't treat a five point victory in the popular vote as a mandate that the country is now some extreme leftist Utopia. Bush did that shit and look where it got us.

I think the true center spoke last night and it is just left of center, consisting of democrats, republicans and independents alike. We should seek to build that coalition rather than keep pushing to the left when it isn't needed to accomplish our goals.

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PS: Unless you are Dan Schneider, you might want to post a link next time and perhaps provide some commentary rather than copying the entire thing. It violate TPM's rules as well as copyright law.

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I am Dan Schneider; thus why my byline is below the piece's title.

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I wasn't sure. Sometimes people post stuff from other people that was published elsewhere.

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Excellent article, Dan. Thanks for posting it.

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Chuck Todd says this last night, he said Obama will want to be a 65% approval rating President, a Reagan one so to speak. I believe, even as a proud progressive, that Governing from the Center is the way to go. Building consensus on most things is how things get done and we can't have all this back and forth while our country crumbles.

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A well written post.

Just loved the following turn of phrase - That's because it was Nixon's own brand of personal viciousness that put flesh and life on the skeletal ideas and vision of Goldwater that Reagan merely refried.

Rec'd.

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Nixon was no Goldwater conservative. Goldwater would never have approached China, would never have instituted a national speed limit, and never, never, NEVER would have created the EPA.

People fail to remember how liberal Nixon was (comparatively) to Goldwater conservatives like Reagan.

The whole idea that Nixon was somehow a standard bearer of Goldwater's ideals shows a willful ignorance of history.

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Robby: 'The whole idea that Nixon was somehow a standard bearer of Goldwater's ideals shows a willful ignorance of history.'

Which is why I did not state that. Here's what I said: "That's because it was Nixon's own brand of personal viciousness that put flesh and life on the skeletal ideas and vision of Goldwater that Reagan merely refried. The last four decades of Right Wing ascendancy have not been noted for any great innovations in political governance, but the rising tide of personal invective, wedge issues, and the nurturing of celebrity over quality. All of these things are quintessentially Nixonian, not Reaganesque. Yes, there is some truth to the old adage that Johnson started the Great Society, but Nixon funded it. Yet, that was less ideology than placating rabble rousers as Nixon vainly tried to end the Vietnam War. From Watergate to the Enemies List to illegal bombings in Cambodia to attacking opponents on personal levels; all of this has only flowered, especially on the Right. Reagan simply needed a Nixon to flourish, and, so, the last forty years of politics, that came to an end last night, get the imprimatur of the larger historical figure, for good or ill, and that figure is indisputably Nixon."

Clearly, ideas such as the approach to Vietnam, the approaches to social engineering, corporate policy, etc. were endowed by Goldwater, but, I did state Nixon funded the Great Society.

It's called reading and not being an ideologue.

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Robby: 'The whole idea that Nixon was somehow a standard bearer of Goldwater's ideals shows a willful ignorance of history.'

Which is why I did not state that. Here's what I said: "That's because it was Nixon's own brand of personal viciousness that put flesh and life on the skeletal ideas and vision of Goldwater that Reagan merely refried. The last four decades of Right Wing ascendancy have not been noted for any great innovations in political governance, but the rising tide of personal invective, wedge issues, and the nurturing of celebrity over quality. All of these things are quintessentially Nixonian, not Reaganesque. Yes, there is some truth to the old adage that Johnson started the Great Society, but Nixon funded it. Yet, that was less ideology than placating rabble rousers as Nixon vainly tried to end the Vietnam War. From Watergate to the Enemies List to illegal bombings in Cambodia to attacking opponents on personal levels; all of this has only flowered, especially on the Right. Reagan simply needed a Nixon to flourish, and, so, the last forty years of politics, that came to an end last night, get the imprimatur of the larger historical figure, for good or ill, and that figure is indisputably Nixon."

Clearly, ideas such as the approach to Vietnam, the approaches to social engineering, corporate policy, etc. were endowed by Goldwater, but, I did state Nixon funded the Great Society.

It's called reading and not being an ideologue.

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You proceed from a false assumption. In order for Nixon to have put "flesh and life" on the Goldwater conservative approach, he would have to have actually been a Goldwater conservative. Nixon would have had to do all these nasty things he was doing under the banner of Goldwater conservatism. *Reagan* was the Goldwater conservative, not Nixon.

By the way, who used the "Daisy" ad in 1964? Wasn't that LBJ? Wasn't that the very essence of "attacking opponents on personal levels"? Just because Nixon fought dirty you can't suddenly shoe-horn him into the Goldwater mold. That just doesn't fly logically.

In 1968, Nixon ran under the "Bring Us Together" and "Plan To End Vietnam" banners. Those were hardly Goldwater mantras. And yet your whole thesis is based on you fallaciously joining together Goldwater and Nixon simply because Nixon was nasty and a crook. So I ask: who is being the ideologue?

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Robby:

'You proceed from a false assumption. In order for Nixon to have put "flesh and life" on the Goldwater conservative approach, he would have to have actually been a Goldwater conservative. Nixon would have had to do all these nasty things he was doing under the banner of Goldwater conservatism. *Reagan* was the Goldwater conservative, not Nixon.'

Actually, your presumption was false. Clearly, by admitting Nixon funded the Great Society, the flesh and life I was referring to was the Bircher level xenophobia and racism that Goldwater masqued, but which Nixon embraced.

By the way, who used the "Daisy" ad in 1964? Wasn't that LBJ? Wasn't that the very essence of "attacking opponents on personal levels"? Just because Nixon fought dirty you can't suddenly shoe-horn him into the Goldwater mold. That just doesn't fly logically.

The Daisy ad ran once, and it was an attack on many of Goldwater's claims about war and policy. Later, Goldwater even made explicit that he wd have nuked Vietnam, so that ad vs. Nixon's skullduggery is simply a bad comparison.

In 1968, Nixon ran under the "Bring Us Together" and "Plan To End Vietnam" banners. Those were hardly Goldwater mantras. And yet your whole thesis is based on you fallaciously joining together Goldwater and Nixon simply because Nixon was nasty and a crook. So I ask: who is being the ideologue?

You are, because the piece and my replies link the two for a shared belief system about social stratification and how to deal with the 'others.' Nixon mad explicit what Goldwater implied. Reagan saw Nixon get roasted for that, and thus used weasel words to hide his racism.

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I truly hope Obama is remembered for his PRESIDENCY rather than his election. His election is historic, if he comes through like a truly in my heart believe he will, his presidency will be one for the ages.

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Obscenely huge military spending increases, largely still intact.

Lowering of tax brackets to support trickle-down "VooDoo" economics, largely still intact.

20 out of 28 years of Republicans in the White House.

Hmmm. Yeah, I guess you're right. There was no Reagan Revolution.

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Robby:

'Obscenely huge military spending increases, largely still intact.'

Do you think he was the first or last Prez to increase the military budget?

'Lowering of tax brackets to support trickle-down "VooDoo" economics, largely still intact.'

Did you somehow miss the Roaring Twenties in history class?

'20 out of 28 years of Republicans in the White House.'

That's dominance, not revolution; and had Al Gore pressed his case better, the last 16 likely would have been Democratic.

'Hmmm. Yeah, I guess you're right. There was no Reagan Revolution.'

It's always good to see the young learn from their wiser elders. You're welcome.

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Perhaps you noticed the things I mentioned all happened from Reagan forward? Reagan increased military spending, Reagan instigated supply-side, etc.

You jumped all over the place in history. When you use examples from the 20's to refute examples I used from the 80's, well, I'm sorry but I'm not convinced.

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Robby:

Perhaps you noticed the things I mentioned all happened from Reagan forward? Reagan increased military spending, Reagan instigated supply-side, etc.

You jumped all over the place in history. When you use examples from the 20's to refute examples I used from the 80's, well, I'm sorry but I'm not convinced.

I used examples from other times to show your claims that Reagan was revolutionary was false. A revolution institutes new and bold ideas. Reagan had none. So, your protestations are, again, based upon misreadings. Whether willful or not is beside the point.

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Very flawed analysis and windy. Suggesting that Clinton and Carter were Nixonian and Obama is some new kind of Presidential species -- what the hell are you talking about? For one thing, you don't even know how Obama is going to govern. What if he bombs Iran, as he has commented might be necessary? You going to say Nixon is dead then?

And it doesn't matter what Reagan was or wasn't. Legend is fact now. He's Elvis, Santa, and Jesus.

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Brook: Very flawed analysis and windy. Suggesting that Clinton and Carter were Nixonian and Obama is some new kind of Presidential species -- what the hell are you talking about? For one thing, you don't even know how Obama is going to govern. What if he bombs Iran, as he has commented might be necessary? You going to say Nixon is dead then?

Did you even read the piece? Nowhere do I call Clinton nor Carter Nixonian. The rest of your reply dribbles down your chim from there. Strawmen must be nice and soft to hug.

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It's pretty bad when I have to quote the author, because the author doesn't even remember what the hell they wrote.

"Instead, last night's victory signaled the end of several things. The first was the end of the Nixon Era." Clinton and Carter -- both Presidents since Nixon which makes them part of your "Nixon Era".

So, you indeed did lump them into the mix, Sir, and I simply pointed out how nonsensical that premise was and most of what follows.

I also have a rule of thumb I use to determine that I'm winning an argument. They use the "Straw Man" defense or they hurl insults. You did both with myself and Howard, so we have the satisfaction of knowing we have bested such a superior intellect.

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Brook: Tell me you are joking, and not this dumb:

'It's pretty bad when I have to quote the author, because the author doesn't even remember what the hell they wrote. "Instead, last night's victory signaled the end of several things. The first was the end of the Nixon Era." Clinton and Carter -- both Presidents since Nixon which makes them part of your "Nixon Era".
So, you indeed did lump them into the mix, Sir, and I simply pointed out how nonsensical that premise was and most of what follows.

To say that someone resided in an Era does not mean that they partook of a particular part of that era. Not all Victorians were uptight, not all Gilded Age denizens were rich white men, nor were all the Presidents of the Nixon Era Nixonian. By that standard, the aforementioned Lincolnian Era would have meant that US Grant, Warren Harding, and Herbert Hoover shared Lincoln's virtues. To repeat: Nowhere do I call Clinton nor Carter Nixonian. And your inabiluty to show where, and then show that I was, indeed, correct, says how little gray matter you possess.

I also have a rule of thumb I use to determine that I'm winning an argument. They use the "Straw Man" defense or they hurl insults. You did both with myself and Howard, so we have the satisfaction of knowing we have bested such a superior intellect.

So superior that you don't even recognize that you quote your own strawman in a losing cause? O for 2. Wanna go for trey?

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okay, I'll bite on that -- witness BO saying AGAIN that Iran cannot be allowed to devlop nuclear weapons -- very "i have the will in spades" Nixonian.

Second, thanks for admitting, at least, that your article needed serious editing. No one can read your article and conclude anything other than that you believe Nixon's policies have guided us all the way up to Tuesday's elections. If you have to continue to explain what you wrote -- that's a hallmark of bad writing.

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Yeah, yeah, yeah. Blah, blah, blah. You voted for Nader in the last three elections. So what the fuck could you possibly know about anything?

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Um....that you are an idiot.

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I don't have to explain my writing. I'm answering your demonstrated misreading, due to your lack of reading comprehension; such as your inability to back up your claims that I claimed carter and Clinton were Nixonian.

That's the hallmark of bad reading, stupidity, or both. I'll bite....it's both.

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