Guessing at McCain's Final Gambit
Something struck me when I was looking at the RCP tracking poll. Like other tracking polls, it shows that Obama has been consistently ahead since April, except for a one-week inversion due mainly to the Palin pick.
Now, if I'm John McCain or one of his top advisors, the tracking polls show one thing: McCain will lose on November 4 unless he gets a Palin-like poll bounce which coincides with election day. The daring gambit of picking Palin has been the only thing which has put McCain ahead, albeit just for a few days. Therefore, McCain needs to pull another daring gambit in the days just before the election, in hopes that he'll get another bounce at the right time.
It's a given, really, that McCain will try a final gambit. The only question is what form it will take. So, TPM readers, what do you think? Will it be some horrible and completely fabricated smear about Obama? A "Hillary moment" by McCain in which he tearfully renounces his lying campaign and promises to honorable going forward? The possibilities are endless.
My guess is a last-minute substitution in the VP slot. A bold, daring VP pick is what got McCain a poll bounce the first time, so he'll do it again. He'll keep Palin around until the weekend before the election, when she'll drop out to spend more time with her family, etc. Then McCain will pick another left-field candidate for his new VP -- probably someone with economic expertise, the better to take advantage of the public's #1 issue. Fiorina, maybe?
Now, if I'm John McCain or one of his top advisors, the tracking polls show one thing: McCain will lose on November 4 unless he gets a Palin-like poll bounce which coincides with election day. The daring gambit of picking Palin has been the only thing which has put McCain ahead, albeit just for a few days. Therefore, McCain needs to pull another daring gambit in the days just before the election, in hopes that he'll get another bounce at the right time.
It's a given, really, that McCain will try a final gambit. The only question is what form it will take. So, TPM readers, what do you think? Will it be some horrible and completely fabricated smear about Obama? A "Hillary moment" by McCain in which he tearfully renounces his lying campaign and promises to honorable going forward? The possibilities are endless.
My guess is a last-minute substitution in the VP slot. A bold, daring VP pick is what got McCain a poll bounce the first time, so he'll do it again. He'll keep Palin around until the weekend before the election, when she'll drop out to spend more time with her family, etc. Then McCain will pick another left-field candidate for his new VP -- probably someone with economic expertise, the better to take advantage of the public's #1 issue. Fiorina, maybe?
