This is the new economy. 10% (yeah right) unemployment, service jobs galore paying $7.50 and no benefits. What more could you ask?

Oh? You say you want a job that you can pay the rent with and feed your kids. Sorry. Fresh out. Forever.

I don't buy it.

I think a lot of this "Growth" can be attributed to "Stimulus" money... Not all of which has been spent (which is wise).

Also... there have been massive layoffs and job cuts... This helps companies show increased $$$'s...

Nobody is really hiring anybody right now either because they're just not convinced things are turning around. It's too risky to invest in a new hire right now. That alone should speak volumes.

This past quarter (and maybe, just maybe the next quarter) could be so much of a "Dead Cat Bounce". We'll see.

I can tell you that several friends involved in a few fairly large product manufacturing companies (TRANE, is one of them... Toyota another)... have told me that they are planning massive market expansion projects for 2010. They are convinced things will be improving by mid 2010... They're banking on it.

There will still be lots of stimulus money to spread out between now and then... If that expansion comes and works... then maybe this time next year we will be able to breathe a little easier.

Take a look at this and you'll see how long it takes to get back to "normal" employment levels

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/welcome-to-the-new-normal/

Unemployment benifits are running out at the pace of 7000 a week. Those dollars are being taken out of the economy. Four million homes in foreclosure and another 1.2 million in default. The automobile industry, with all its spin off, is a dead man walking. Residential Construction is terminally ill. Commercial Construction is that dead cat that has bounced by the stimulus. Banking is putting on a mask and buring its head in the sand - all of banking is in true dollars losing money. All states and the federal government are losing tax revenues by the train load. Too many on TPM are insulated from this economy. Too many of the movers and shakers in this country just don't get it. This economy is stalling. Ever been in a plane that stalled?

Well, my company has 3 positions open, which in a business of 120 or so employees isn't bad. The owners froze wages and hiring at the beginning of the year, but did so much better than they expected, they are giving everyone a bonus of 3% of their yearly wages. (well almost everyone, everyone entitled to a raise last January, which is 95%)

Now, they are manufactures of educational aids, so the stimulus money is certainly a factor, but they are also expanding, and we grunts are working like dogs. (Well, 50% of us, maybe)

I know I want to do my best so we can ALL get raises this January. Maybe we have turned a corner.

Maybe. Believe it and work for it. If not now, when?

cmaukonen-

I am afraid that if we are recovering it will be a return to the bubbling roller-coaster without any real change in our banking system, employment (4 day work week?), ore some other major redirection we are just going to repeat the cycle.

i would love to be wrong.

M. Paul

Timing is everything. If unemployment is 10 percent a year from now, Obama might as well go on a long vacation. The Republicans will win enough of Congress to block completely anything he wants to do. Only his charm could win him reelection, if he can win it at all.

If it's down to 7.8 percent, the Repubs will say he hasn't made any gains since he took over--and they'll be right. So far, Obama's policies are political deadweight--he's perceived to be handing out hundreds of billions to banks and investment houses, and failing at mortgage relief and jobs creation. If his shit works, great. But so far his economic approach looks like Jimmy Carter II--too little, too poorly executed, too badly conceived.