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The Dead cat Rebound


It is said the even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from a
great enough height.   And this rebound sure looks like
a dead cat. And it ain't bouncing.
 The numbers reported Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers
 Association show clearly that rising job losses are
 worsening the nation's housing troubles and threaten
 the Obama administration's efforts to keep owners from
 losing their homes.

 The quarterly National Delinquency Survey showed that
 almost one in 10 homeowners with a mortgage was at
 least one payment late, and thus delinquent, while
 another 4 percent had entered the foreclosure process
 on their loan.

 Nowhere is there less sunshine in this picture than
 Florida. The survey found that from April to June, 12
 percent of all Florida mortgages were in the
 foreclosure process and about 23 percent of all
 Florida mortgages_ almost one in four_ were late on
 payments or under threat of foreclosure.

 In California, 10.8 percent of all mortgages were 90
 days or more past due or in foreclosure. While the
 Golden State accounts for 13.3 percent of U.S.
 mortgages, it's also the site of almost 20 percent of
 foreclosure starts from April to June.

 More worrisome is a trend emerging deeper in the
 numbers: Subprime loans given to the weakest borrowers
 are now a declining portion of delinquency and
 foreclosure rates, while prime loans, given to the
 most highly qualified borrowers, are a rising share.

 "The rise in prime delinquencies . . . is a clear
 indication that employment is the driver of mortgage
 performance, with the worst performance coming in
 those areas that are combining jobs losses with large
 drops in home values like California and Florida," Jay
 Brinkmann, the group's chief economist, told
 McClatchy. "We won't see a turnaround in delinquencies
 until we see improvements in employment, most likely
 the middle of next year."
Somebody needs to find out what's in the Kool Aid that
Benanke has been dinking because it can't be legal.


C

8 Comments

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Several of the gold bug financial analysts are claiming that the FDIC ran out of funds a week before last Friday. Who you gonna believe?

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The gold bugs. They have less to hide.

C

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Rec'd but can we choose another animal besides dead cat? The cat-vatar community at TPM doesn't take kindly to that imagery.

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Sorry...just a figure of speech.


C

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. . . this rebound sure looks like a dead cat.

If you're talking stock market rebound, this cat has a rocket in its tail -- just about ready to light off the second stage booster.

To the moon, Alice; to the moon!

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Possibly true, and for the stock market aficionados out there, probably a welcome relief. But I think we all know that the stock market isn't a very good measure of the housing crisis' drag on the overall economy, or on how average people are doing....

Would you agree?

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True.

But as to whether a rising stock market equates to "relief," I'd say it more often equates to "anxiety" -- performance anxiety, that is.

And that anxiety is about to strike a lot of managers of other people's money.

Va-Va-Voom!

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Ah, Ellen, perhaps if I understood you better, I could make money in the stock market.

Do you just mean that it's going to be hard for the money managers to know which stocks will go up and for how long? That I can understand. But if it's something more than that, I'm afraid you've lost me.

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cmaukonen

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