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Week of July 26, 2009 - August 1, 2009

Some Health care truths that apply elsewhere as well.


Paul Krugman gives a dose of reality on health care.
Yet private markets for health insurance, left
to their own devices, work very badly: insurers
deny as many claims as possible, and they also
try to avoid covering people who are likely to
need care. Horror stories are legion: the
insurance company that refused to pay for
urgently needed cancer surgery because of
questions about the patient's acne treatment;
the healthy young woman denied coverage because
she briefly saw a psychologist after breaking up
with her boyfriend.

And in their efforts to avoid "medical losses,"
the industry term for paying medical bills,
insurers spend much of the money taken in
through premiums not on medical treatment, but
on "underwriting" - screening out people likely
to make insurance claims. In the individual
insurance market, where people buy insurance
directly rather than getting it through their
employers, so much money goes into underwriting
and other expenses that only around 70 cents of
each premium dollar actually goes to care.

Still, most Americans do have health insurance,
and are reasonably satisfied with it. How is
that possible, when insurance markets work so
badly? The answer is government intervention.

Most obviously, the government directly provides
insurance via Medicare and other programs.
Before Medicare was established, more than 40
percent of elderly Americans lacked any kind of
health insurance. Today, Medicare - which is, by
the way, one of those "single payer" systems
conservatives love to demonize - covers everyone
65 and older. And surveys show that Medicare
recipients are much more satisfied with their
coverage than Americans with private insurance.

Still, most Americans under 65 do have some form
of private insurance. The vast majority,
however, don't buy it directly: they get it
through their employers. There's a big tax
advantage to doing it that way, since employer
contributions to health care aren't considered
taxable income. But to get that tax advantage
employers have to follow a number of rules;
roughly speaking, they can't discriminate based
on pre-existing medical conditions or restrict
benefits to highly paid employees.

And it's thanks to these rules that
employment-based insurance more or less works,
at least in the sense that horror stories are a
lot less common than they are in the individual
insurance market.

So here's the bottom line: if you currently have
decent health insurance, thank the government.
It's true that if you're young and healthy, with
nothing in your medical history that could
possibly have raised red flags with corporate
accountants, you might have been able to get
insurance without government intervention. But
time and chance happen to us all, and the only
reason you have a reasonable prospect of still
having insurance coverage when you need it is
the large role the government already plays.

Which brings us to the current debate over
reform.

Right-wing opponents of reform would have you
believe that President Obama is a wild-eyed
socialist, attacking the free market. But
unregulated markets don't work for health care -
never have, never will. To the extent we have a
working health care system at all right now it's
only because the government covers the elderly,
while a combination of regulation and tax
subsidies makes it possible for many, but not
all, nonelderly Americans to get decent private
coverage.

Now Mr. Obama basically proposes using
additional regulation and subsidies to make
decent insurance available to all of us. That's
not radical; it's as American as, well, Medicare.
Let me repeat that last part.  But unregulated markets
don't work for health care - never have, never will.


I have a friend that I have know for around 10 years. He has
an MBA and works for an insurance co. He is definitely NOT
a left wing fanatic. In fact his politics are more slightly right of
center.

We got into a discussion the other day about why America
has been getting so severely trounced by foreign manufactures.
My contention was that there was far too much emphasis on
profit and not enough on product. But he brought up the point
the most of the large and a good number of the smaller foreign
products are subsidized by their respective governments.

Now here is the part that rather surprised me. His belief is that
for the US to regain the competitive edge again, we need to do
this also.  That capitalism in the world today without some sort
of government subsidy and regulation simply does not work.

It is far too expensive for any company to try an bare the burden
of research, development and distribution of any new product by
it self and that investors would not help as they are primarily
interest in returns which do not occur initially from this. And unrestrained
capitalism will simply eat itself and all around it. As Paul said
about health care really applies to all markets. Unregulated
markets simply do not work !


Now I am going to make a statement that may cause some of the
more conservative types here to raise their blood pressure.
We all ready do this. We are at least partially socialist.

Every time an ear mark makes it into a Bill in Congress we are
engaging in socialist government subsidy. Anytime a bill contains
tax payer money for food, drugs, roads, energy, aircraft (and on and on)
we are engaging in socialism in some form or another.

So for anyone to scream socialism at health care (or anything else)
to try and scare off the public is shear nonsense.  It's like yelling
water while swimming.



Rip offs on Wall Street at the Speed of light


Paul Wilmot goes on to explain in this NYT OP-Ed how this could
lead to the next crash.
On vacation in Turkey, I am picked up at the
airport by a minibus. It's past midnight,
pitch-black, the driver is speeding around
corners. Only one headlight is working. And I
have my doubts about the brakes. In my head I'm
planning the letter of complaint to the tour
company. And then the driver's cellphone rings,
he picks it up and answers it, he has only one
hand on the steering wheel. Now I'm mentally
compiling the list of songs to be played at my
funeral.

That's rather how I feel when people talk about
the latest fashion among investment banks and
hedge funds: high-frequency algorithmic
trading. On top of an already dangerously
influential and morally suspect financial
minefield is now being added the unthinking
power of the machine.

The idea is straightforward: Computers take
information - primarily "real-time" share
prices - and try to predict the next twitch in
the stock market. Using an algorithmic formula,
the computers can buy and sell stocks within
fractions of seconds, with the bank or fund
making a tiny profit on the blip of price
change of each share.
Now here's the kicker. It is very hard to determine just how legitimate
some of these trades really are. As I have pointed out here previously
there is a lot of under the table dealing taking place. And at the speed
of high end computers and ultra-fast computer links, this could easily
lock up the system once again.

Imagine running a sports car fat out - all the while draining the the oil
from the engine and you get the picture. That engine would seize up
so fast you would not even have time to blink.

C

Wall Street's lawless practices


While doing some searching on the use of high speed
computer trading, I came across this article in the NYT
concerning Naked Short Selling. It seems to have slipped
through the cracks. Which is unfortunate because it is
very insightful.
What is the ratio of total fails in the system to
those trapped in the CNS system? No one seems to
know (and in fact, while the individual pieces of
data are known individually, I strongly suspect
that no one party has the bird's eye view of
how many of these there are at all levels). The
estimates I am told range from 3 to 15. For ease I
will refer to this as, "The Iceberg
Principle" and the ratio of total failures to
CNS failures as "I".

So how big a problem is this?

- The last reported size of the
  failures-to-deliver at the CNS level are $8.7
  billion.

- By Iceberg Principle, total failures = I X
  $8.7 billion ~ $30 to $120 billion.

- By Feynman Principle, total cost to cover = F
  X I X $8.7b = F X ($30 to $120 billion).

So respectfully, Wall Street, I believe you are Oak
Ridge, Tennessee, blithely going about your jobs at
the factory, taking for granted "the
piping" that is our settlement system. I
believe you have manufactured, and are sitting
squarely on top of, a financial atomic bomb.
That's not good for you, of course, and if it
goes critical, America is downwind.
Now I'm no expert on Wall Street-ese but from what I have read
here and other places this would amount to no less than fraud.

What really get me are the euphemistic terms they use for this.
like  unsettled trades or failure-to-deliver. So that it doesn't sound
like theft.

What he is saying in effect is like dealing in oranges or auto parts
and delivering only a partial shipment and pocketing the all the
money and then hiding the entire transaction and leaving the
manufacturer holding the bag.

Or stiffing a Vegas Casino. Which would get you a very quick
trip to the big house, providing the owner does not decide to
make an example of you first.

Yet this is the kind of thing that is still going on. It has even been
suggested that naked short selling had as much to do with
the collapse of Fannie and Freddie and other banks as did their
load practices. That their arrogance and greed caught them coming
and going.

Since these practices have yet to be regulated, we could have a
rerun of last year.


How Goldman steals from Wall Street and Main Street.


Doyle Lonnegan: Your boss is quite a card player, Mr. Kelly; how does he do it?
Johnny Hooker: He cheats.

It would seem that the Russian that ripped off Goldman's trading program
may have also opened a Pandora's Box into a trading scandal involving
Goldman and maybe others.
"It is the hot new thing on Wall Street,"
according to The Times's Charles Duhigg, "a
way for a handful of traders to master the
stock market, peek at investors' orders and,
critics say, even subtly manipulate share
prices. It is called high-frequency trading --
and it is suddenly one of the most
talked-about and mysterious forces in the
markets."
According to this Piece in the times they do it with some pretty
shady computer tricks.
Karl Denniger at the Market Ticker writes
that Duhigg has "blown the cover off the dark
art" but thinks that the traders' computer
speed isn't most important advantage they
have. Rather, he says, the "algos," rather
than providing liquidity as they are supposed
to, intentionally probe "the market with tiny
orders that were immediately canceled in a
scheme to gain an illegal view into the other
side's willingness to pay." He explains:

Let's say that there is a buyer willing to
buy 100,000 shares of BRCM with a limit price
of $26.40. That is, the buyer will accept any
price up to $26.40.

But the market at this particular moment in
time is at $26.10, or thirty cents lower.

So the computers, having detected via their
"flash orders" (which ought to be illegal)
that there is a desire for Broadcom shares,
start to issue tiny (typically 100 share
lots) "immediate or cancel" orders - IOCs -
to sell at $26.20. If that order is "eaten"
the computer then issues an order at $26.25,
then $26.30, then $26.35, then $26.40. When
it tries $26.45 it gets no bite and the order
is immediately canceled.

Now the flush of supply comes at, big
coincidence, $26.39, and the claim is made
that the market has become "more efficient."

Nonsense; there was no "real seller" at any
of these prices! This pattern of offering was
intended to do one and only one thing -
manipulate the market by discovering what is
supposed to be a hidden piece of information
- the other side's limit price!


In other words a scam worthy of a the best "Mind Reader"
con artist. And as is concluded in this paper from Zero Hedge
these practices themselves are very risky.
Many HFTs are hedge funds that enter their
orders into the market through a "sponsored
access" arrangement with a broker. Many of
these arrangements do not have any pre-trade
risk controls since these clients demand the
fastest speed. Due to the fully electronic
nature of the equity markets today, one
keypunch error could wreak havoc. Nothing
would be able to stop a market destroying
order once the button was pressed.

Gives new meaning to the term "mutually
assured destruction?"

C

Dept. of the obvious...The Fed is a Ponzi scheme


According to Elliot Spitzer and I tend to agree.
Advocating in favor of a House Bill to audit
the Federal Reserve, Spitzer said: "The
Federal Reserve has benefited for decades
from the notion that it is quasi-autonomous,
it's supposed to be independent. Let me tell
you a dirty secret: The Fed has done an
absolutely disastrous job since [former Fed
Chairman] Paul Volcker left.

"The reality is the Fed has blown it. Time
and time again, they blew it. Bubble after
bubble, they failed to understand what they
were doing to the economy.

"The most poignant example for me is the AIG
bailout, where they gave tens of billions of
dollars that went right through -- conduit
payments -- to the investment banks that are
now solvent. We [taxpayers] didn't get stock
in those banks, they didn't ask what was
going on -- this begs and cries out for hard,
tough examination.

"You look at the governing structure of the
New York [Federal Reserve], it was run by the
very banks that got the money. This is a
Ponzi scheme, an inside job. It is
outrageous, it is time for Congress to say
enough of this. And to give them more power
now is crazy.

"The Fed needs to be examined carefully."
At the very least. Now I'm not one of those The Fed is illegal
types that go on about some conspiracy. But the Fed does
need to looked into big time.

C

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cmaukonen

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