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SECOND STIMULUS -- Urgent to discuss more at TPM; & Linx Collection


      When the $787 billion stimulus bill was quickly passed & signed at the outset of the Obama Administration, there was much hope that it would blunt the severe recession from worsening into a depression.   In order to gain THREE GOP votes in order to pass, major reductions were made in the spending, especially in the area of aid to state government, slashed by over $40 billion, while tax cuts, favored by Republicans, were vastly expanded.    The stimulus then passed with an extra vote to spare, at a time when Coleman's challenge to the seating of Democrat Al Franken from Minnesota had successfully prevented him from being seated.   

Since that time, the economy, while supposedly "stabilizing" has arguably worsened, moreso than the Administration and "nonpessimistic" economists had projected, especially in the area of unemployment, now up to 9.5% and expected to enter double digits before the end of the year.   This rise in the rate both understates the total proportion of workers either underemployed, or not working and having given up looking for work; that proportion is roughly double the official rate, and in recent months, only an increase in the number of workers who have given up looking for jobs has prevented the unemployment rate from entering double digits already.    Furthermore, the fiscal crisis of state and local governments has also grown more dire, with CA facing a shortfall of over $20 billion, or over $1000 per taxpayer, and NY State also facing a huge shortfall, amounting to around $600 per taxpayer.    Overall, the impact of the recession/depression on state governments, who at least in theory must typically balance their budgets, has resulted  both in tax increases -- many of these regressive, though a significant proportion targeted at the wealthy by Democratic governments -- and in cutbacks to state and local spending and employment.    These changes at the state and local level have been often had a rapid effect, offsetting the relatively slower-effect spending provisions in the stimulus bill.   It is said that less than 15% of the spending provisions of the federal stimulus package have been disbursed so far.

Also, universities and colleges, including in the public sector, increase fees and tuition, cutback spending, and often are curtailing aid to needy students;  at some institutions of higher education, there has been a major impact in admissions standards, with students able to pay 'full freight' being much more likely to be favored.    Foreclosures continue apace, with great attendant harm to communities and to any possible 'green shoots' of recovery -- which generated much buzz that has quieted down recently in the face of recent negative economic news worse than mainstream forecasts, -- in the area of real estate and housing.    It remains unclear not only whether unemployment (expected to continue to rise for some time) but the economy as a whole has even bottomed out yet.

Yet, during this time, there has been only a minimum of discussion of the possibility of future stimulus measures, particularly those that might restore the negative changes that were made to the original stimulus in order to win over THREE "moderate" Republican Senators, one of whom has switched party affiliation, though not necessarily being any more open to stimulus spending that he was as a Republican.    The worsening economy and the predictable increase (marginal but crucial) in the number of Democrats in the Senate might have generated lots of discussion and pressure from progressives -- at least it seems to me that's what one would expect in a truly 'free marketplace of ideas' -- but at least at TPM Cafe and its affiliates, as well as a number of the other major venues for liberal/progressive political discourse, this has not been the case.   Indeed, there has been much more buzz concerning the coming nomination battle over future Justice Sotomayor, even though her approval at least now appears to be a foregone conclusion.

There has, however, been a significant amount of discussion of a second stimulus -- in NONprogressive venues followed by those opposed to such spending, and where concerns over the possibility of burgeoning inflation loom much larger.     These are not venues primarily concerned with the unemployed, those facing foreclosure, students/universities squeezed economically, or communities devasted by unemployment, foreclosures, etc.

For progressives many important questions need to be answered.    What kinds of measures and how much would be needed to stem the bleeding at the state and local governments that undermine the economic stimulus and create much pain to the needy?     How could a bailout of CA be combined with the needs of many other states for major relief?   What are the best kinds of measures to shore up at least the public sector of higher education?   What are the best measures to stanch or even partially reverse the foreclosure crisis with its negative multiplier effects?   And of course, what kinds of stimulus spending would generate spending SOONER and with a maximum economic boost by the multiplier effect? 

To all these questions there are added issues of strategy and political feasibility, of which politicians could champion this and how much ground needs to be covered -- other than the obvious and unproductive noting that a 'second stimulus isn't in the cards' at this point -- just the kind of approach that reinforces the existing RW justifying-the-lying bias of discourse already extant.
Also important are the marshalling of arguments to counter what the RW is saying on the subject.

Below are a number of links on the issue to help spur discussion, and laying out many of the protestations against a second stimulus being made by the right.    I hope that columnists at TPM Cafe will significantly address these questions, particularly those questions or arguments that their expertise would give them the ability to address in ways the rest of us here can't.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124692229711302683.html
(Is Stimulus Sequel in the Offing?)

http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/06/june-jobs-report-losses-economy-recovery-opinions-columnists-wesbury-stein.html

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/07/06/get_ready_for_14_percent_unemployment_97295.html

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stash/archive/2009/07/06/the-politics-of-a-second-stimulus.aspx

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e0569d42-6995-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1 (FINANCIAL TIMES "WE DO NOT NEED A SECOND STIMULUS") http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124654957038686549.htm (WSJ -- NO DECISION YET ON SECOND STIMULUS)  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aIHpsBT0JHFc Democrats Split on Stimulus as Job Losses Mount, Deficit Soars
  http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/chi-0707edit3jul07,0,7888754.story Second Stimulus -- No Way! (Editorial)



 


6 Comments

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Some days, few to be sure, I love Pat Buchanan. Here he is on Hardball way to the left of that slimy centrist Harold Ford telling Obama exactly what he should be doing. Come home (yes Obama is spending too much time abroad) and find out why the stimulus isn't working faster. The agencies need some head knocks. Obama should be on the case, at home, working harder on this.

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I think the problem is not the amount of the stimulus or even what it's is supposed to fund but rather the time it takes any project to get off the ground.

This country has become far, far more bureaucratic now than it was back in FDR's time. With more regulations and laws concerning the implementation of anything.

Even on the state level with bids for design and construction and materials. Environmental impact studies and OSHA regulations.

Even if I were to go up to Tallahassee and give the state treasurer 100 billion dollars and say build what ever you need, it would take at least 6 months to start any project.

Unfortunately the private sector itself is no better in this respect.

To expect any immediate results is a bit foolish.

C

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Can't we wait until a good portion of Stimulus 1.0 has been spent before we start talking about the second phase?

Rather than a second stimulus we should be looking more closely at a payroll tax holiday. That would put money in people's pockets immediately. The administration is wrong in that this crisis can be fixed with a top-down approach. Instead we need to be addressing it in a bottoms-up way. Enacting a payroll tax holiday until the economy starts growing again is exactly what would do that.

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I don't thing that tax holidays or rebates will help, at least not in the long run. What we have is the culmination of decades of manufacturing just drying up.

We need to stop pour money down the back hole of Wall Street and our current corporate America and start finding ways to help the small inventors and researchers. To find new and better energy sources and fast track them to market. Cut the red tape.

More money into training and retraining those who have lost their jobs.

We can't fix the economy until we can generate jobs to replace those that have been lost.

Spending money that we (as individuals) don't have, helped get us into this - it won't get us out.

Oh and get rid of these a$$ holes once and for all.

C

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Obama stays away too much? Seriously? And Biden was put in charge of implementing the Stimulus so Obama doesn't need to be micromanaging everything. Also, let's spend the first one, first. I've heard that only 10% of it has been spent.

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As for waiting for the first stimulus to be spent, the point is that it is largely 'slow' spending; the focus of a second stimulus should be on FASTER spending -- and the question was raised of professionals just what kinds of programs that would entail.

State governments are raising taxes and cutting jobs and spending -- in the SHORT run to balance budgets THIS FISCAL YEAR. Heading off these economically damaging trends, at least partially, is a short run benefit at least in that aspect.
It also would mean that state governments wouldn't face such dire straits, with many negative repercussions.

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