I) Obama and polls -- national and state polls, and analyses   (II) Veepstakes -- overall analysis, cases for some less-advocated possibilities   (III)  Consituencies -- "Joshua Generation", analyses of obama & women, exurbs, rural voters   (IV) Issues -- including W Admin helping Saudis build nuke plants;  explication of Obama & Rezco,    (V) Other -- including the Jason Furman flap, Obama's internet smear combat brigade, & analysis of prospects of a stolen election

(I) Polls

(A) National Polls and analyses

(1)    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-j-elisberg/obama-mccain-the-early-re_b_106284.html

assessment of state of presidential GE, including polls, by LA commentator at Huffpo Robert Elisberg

(2)    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/06/09/do0901.xml

"McCain still has chance to win"  (UK Telegraph)

(3) Overall National Polls
 

(a) gallup and rasmussen national polls for tues -- both showing Obama with 6 point lead
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3412213
 
(b)   http://www.gallup.com/poll/107791/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Lead-Appears-Stabilize.aspx
obama maintains modest (6 %) lead in daily national gallup tracking poll
 
(c) national poll AND detailed Ohio poll w/extensive internals

polls in LA Times --natl & Ohio
detailed pdf of poll in Ohio -- internals etc
http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op060908.pdf
 
(B) state polls
 
(1)  NJ and WI
polls showing obama w/lead in NJ and edge in WI
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6332507
 
(2) WI poll w/Obama enjoying double-digit lead:

http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=128513
obama up 13% in WI poll
 
(3) Michigan  
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election
rassmussen finds obama now has edge over mccain in MI
 
(4) Georgia

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election
obama pulls to w/in 10% of mccain in georgia
 
(5) Arizona

mccain website acknowledges Arizona, where he leads by only 5 % in the polls, as a "swing state"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dawn-teo/mccain-up-a-mere-five-poi_b_106337.html 
 
(6) analysis of Iowa

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iXFQbVLl-ShP1_pg6CGNiyaBTmfwD917TD9G1
obama starts out GE as favored to win Iowa
 
(7) analysis of South Carolina

blogsite essay -- Why Obama will carry South Carolina
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/philnoble/gG5jzg
 
(II) Veepstakes -- analyses and advocacies

(A) Analytical Overviews:
 
(1)  http://www.newsweek.com/id/140468/page/1
Newsweek analysis of Obama choice of VP (mainly white males of the center)
 
(2)  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/10/obamas-vp-list-msnbc-gath_n_106373.html
discussion of VeepStakes on Huffington Post
 
(3) Analyses of Hillary Clinton as VP
 
    (a)  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25096620
Obama's lead over McCain increases from 6% to 9% w/HRC on ticket, according to WSJ/NBC poll
    
    
   (b)  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080609/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_as_veep
polls suggesting that HRC would be a bad choice for VP (in terms of vote strength)
 
   (c)  http://washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jun/09/commentary-recruiting-for-the-no-2-spot/
Washington Times weighs in on 'will Barack pick Hillary for veep'? question

(4)   http://www.pdamerica.org/articles/news/2008-06-06-09-47-56-news.php
discussion of three most talked-about non-HRC female vps for Obama ticket: McCaskill, Napolitano, Sebelius

(B) Advocacy for particular possible Veeps:
 
(1) some criteria from Politico writer
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10533.html
"... it is hard to see Obama choosing a running mate who disagreed with a central rationale of his candidacy: his opposition to attacking Iraq when most prominent Democrats lined up in support of President Bush's march to war.    Second, some post-2002 arrivals to the Senate, such as Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, are appealing and have no pro-war baggage but lack the years of elective office experience Obama might want to complement his shorter Washington résumé."

Scott A. Moss is an associate professor at the University of Colorado Law School.
 
(2) Camille Paglia argues for Sebelius at Salon
       http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/06/11/hillary/
 
(3) Carville advocates Gore

http://thepage.time.com/2008/06/11/carville-obama-should-pick-gore-for-veep/
 
(4) Case for Barbara Boxer (including some of my own points):

a case for Barbara Boxer as Obama VP choice (a "burning" thread at Democratic Underground):
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3425848&mesg_id=3425848
 
and my comment there, in case you missed it:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3425848&mesg_id=3428188
 
(5) Case for Nancy Pelosi   

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6346962
case for Pelosi (?) as vp
 
(6) Case for Caroline Kennedy

http://www.pdamerica.org/articles/news/2008-06-06-09-47-56-news.php
 
(7)  http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6345519
the case for Kaine
 
(8)  http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6345964
case for Feingold

(9) Case for the MUCH-touted Wes Clark

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHEYcHmNDX0
 
  http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6350173
 
(III)   Obama and Constituencies

(A) Women
 
   (1)  http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/06/are-women-shunn.html
obama leading in polls of women voters 52-40%, larger than general population lead
 
   (2)  gallup poll finds Obama has gained significantly in support among women, in matchups against McCain, since HRC's exit
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107806/Obama-Gains-Among-Women-After-Clinton-Exit.aspx

   (3)    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-11-womenvoters_N.htm
obama's lead among women over mccain from TWO recent major national polls discussed in USA Today
 
(B) By type of area (urban/rural etc)
 
(1)  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/08/barackobama.hillaryclinton
rural voters said to remain skeptical of voting for Barack Obama
 
(2)  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/Jun/11/dems_send_aid_into_traditionally_gop__exurbs_.html
Democrats looking to run strongly in "Republican" exurbs 
(C) Obama and "Joshua Generation" -- young Christians

http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/388366.aspx

(IV) ISSUES IN ELECTION (these are issues likely to have a significant impact on the outcome of the election, not necessarily what is "objectively" important)
 
  (A) The Economy Stupid
 
      (1)     http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/6/9/why-the-economy-is-better-than-you-think.html
US News and World Report on "why the economy is better than you think"
 
      (2)  real unemployment approaching 14%

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
re: also check articles 54 & 56

(B) Environment/Economy
 
    (1)    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121296676181055711.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Wall Street Journal on McCain v Obama on energy policy
 
    (2)   polls find 94% of Americans see developing solar energy as VITAL for the US
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=52724
 
    (3)   League of Conservation Voters on Republican ("maverick" on the environment) McCain (rates 26) v Obama (rates 96):

http://www.lcv.org/voterguide/

 (C)  Potential Issues Major in THIS Election:
 
  (1)  both brilliant and sensible -- W Administration helping Saudis build nuke plants
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121305642257659301.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
 
  (2) Rezco

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chicago/chi-zorn-10-jun10,0,3997821.column

GOPers trying to use Rezco -- an explanation in defense of Obama in Chicago Tribune

(V) Other
 
    (A)  Obama to Accept Nomination on 45th Anniversary of Dr King's "I Have a Dream" Speech -- by Jesse Jackson Jr.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-jesse-jackson-jr/obama-to-accept-nominatio_b_104977.html
 
    (B)  Obama's Campaign Organization

(1) The Controversy over Jason Furman
 
  (a)  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=acigw2e6gl8Y&refer=us
Obama puts Jason Furman in as economic policy director
 
  (b)  http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/09/obamas_economic_soul/

Obama appoints neoliberal to his economic advisory team
 
  (c)  http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-furman11-2008jun11,0,2347842.story

ongoing concern in some quarters that Obama economic advisor Jason Furman isn't progressive enough

(2)  Obama campaign to address Internet swiftboating
 
  (a)  http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/webscout/2008/06/obama-forward-v.html
Obama and internet rumor machine
 
  (b)  http://www.wmctv.com/global/story.asp?s=8467289
Obama recruiting staff to fight web smears

(3)  focus on David Plouffe (as Obama's "campaign czar" in Chicago Tribune)
   http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-plouffe-obamajun09,0,2235451.story
 
(4) Integrity of Election Process
 
  (a)   http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/3406
issue of the prospects of a stolen election
 
  (b) In These Times on RW's new attack on voters
http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/3737/the_rights_new_attack_on_voters\
 
(5)    Some nice Obama cartoons

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6320600
 
(6)  KS Holdout Boyda endorses Obama

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2008/jun/11/boyda_endorses_obama/
 
(7)  http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/new-gang-of-14-wont-back-mccain-2008-06-11.html
14 Republican Congresspeople REJECT endorsing McCain

 

(I) GE  Presidential 

(A) Obama "edict" requires Democratic National Committee to return $100,000; 

(B) Nonobvious "firsts" for Obama as nominee;

(C) McCain (1) not 'maverick' in close Senate votes,  (2) Opposition to Hurricane Catastrophe fund poses problems for McCain, (3) Neil Cavuto w/5 election tips for McCain;  

(D) VP -- Edwards reportedly rules out #2 spot;

(E) Obama statements on (1) Gay Rights, (2) Climate change bill;

(F)Ridgeway in Mother Jones on Obama and RFK; 

(G) Constituency analyses of Obama ... (1) and race in Wall Street Journal;  (2) (a) and white working class in USA Today, and (b) Gephardt predicts Obama will win working class in Nov;  (3) ... and, in LA Times  (a) discussion of his polling among Latinos, &  (b) Guy Rodriguez on latinos supporting blacks in elections;  (4) "Clinton Dead Enders and Crisis in the Women's Movement" The New Republic;

(H) GE presidential election prospects (1) Obama continues to heavily lead among bettors for winner of GE; (2) Guy Saperstein projects Obama in GE by a blowout; (3) Rasmussen (a)WV: McCain 45, Obama 37; (b) NC: McCain 48, Obama 45; (4) Electoral-Vote.com projects for today: 287 EVs for Obama, and 58 Dem Sen seats; (5) CNN--Opinion Research Corp nat'l:   Obama 47, McCain 43, Nader 6 ...

(II) Nonpresidential Elections:

(A) CA -- ballot measure for Constitutional Amendment requires only a simple majority, while any tax increase requires 2/3 supramajority;

(B) Al Franken faces election flaps in MN over past sex speech  (previous Dem might jump back in)

____________________________________________

(I) Presidential GE

 (A) Obama "Edict" for Democratic National Committee against acceptance of lobbyist money requires return of $100,000:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/07/obama-edict-requires-dnc-to-return-100000/

(B) Nonobvious Firsts for Obama as Democratic Nominee (Julianna Golman at Bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaUIIClmEfwA&refer=home

(C) McCain

   (1)  Not maverick on close senate votes: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0507mccainvotes0507.html

   (2)  Opposition to Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, or "Cat" Fund a potential major issue in FL http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/05/lieberman-launches-grassroots-organization/ 

and 

http://thepage.time.com/obama-camp-release-on-mccains-opposition-to-national-catastrophic-insurance-fund/

   (3)  Neil Cavuto at Fox News offers five tips for McCain: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,364181,00.html   (D) John Edwards reportedly rules out #2 spot on Obama ticket:  http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/06/europe/EU-GEN-Spain-US-Politics-Edwards.php   (E) Obama statements on   (1) Gay Rights: http://www.queerty.com/obamas-gay-promises-20080606/   (2) Climate Change Bill:   http://thepage.time.com/obama-statement-on-climate-change-bill/   (F) James Ridgeway in Mother Jones:   "Seeing Bobby Kennedy in Barack Obama" http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/columns/2008/06/barack-obama-rfk-bobby-kennedy.html

(G)  Commentary on Obama and Constituency Issues   (1)  Wall Street Journal (Jonathan Kaufman):   "Race Issue Looms in Election With Sharp Divide in Some States"  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121271038571350377.html   (2)   (a)  "Obama Reaching Out to White Working Class" by Kathy Kiely in USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-05-Obama_N.htm   (b) Christopher Stern (Bloomberg): "Gephardt Predicts Obama Will Win Working-Class Vote in November": http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080606/pl_bloomberg/ax9lrscsqihg
(3)    (a) Analysis (Peter Wallsten) in LA Times of Obama's showing of enormous (eg 62% Obama t0 29%McCain) lead among latinos:  http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,5793717.story   (b) LA Times' Guy Rodriguez in "Clinton's Latino Spin" analyzes track record of latinos voting for black politicians

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rodriguez28jan28,0,1688217.column
 
(4) Michelle Goldberg in The New Republic "3AM for Feminism:  Clinton Dead Enders and Crisis in the Women's Movement":

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=2c2ec3a8-e813-4d4e-b566-510e0f19eced

(H) Projection/Assessment of Voting Strength
 
   (1) Obama leads heavily (over 60% odds) among bettors for winner in Nov GE: 
http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true
and
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0430811720080605
    
   (2) Guy Saperstein Project Obama Nov win by a blowout:  http://www.alternet.org/election08/87225
 
   (3) Rasmussen statewide polls
       (a) West Virginia:  McCain 45, Obama 37
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/election_2008_west_virginia_presidential_election
       (b) North Carolina:  McCain 48, Obama 45
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php az=view_all&address=132x6309331
 
   (4) (I may drop these soon): Electoral-Vote.com Obama winning electoral college (270 needed to win) w/ 287, Democrats w/58 senate seats (to current ~51-ish, depending on how you count):
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

   (5) (Again, may drop these soon) CNN Opinion-Research Corp:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ijClHoidEl8XEJMJoUooHU1R_nmgD914PTMGA

(II) Nonpresidential Elections
 
   (1) California Ballot Measures -- small tax increase requires 2/3 supramajority while Constitutional Amendment against gay marriage needs only simple majority:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-broverman6-2008jun06,0,4046123.story
 
   (2) Al Franken in Minnesota facing tough time for past sex speech, even nonpublic:
      (a) CBS News analysis of flap over Franken's Playboy article:  
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/05/politics/politico/thecrypt/main4158343.shtml
      (b) flap over NEVER AIRED SaturdayNightLive piece, Ciresi considers jumping back into MN Senate Election as Democrat:

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2008/06/06/2144/frankens_campaign_veering_out_of_control_rumors_fly_and_ciresi_considers_jumping_back_in_the_race

I used to have tons of essays collected together in my old blog, before the format was  changed.   Some of the stuff was saved ONLY on TPM Cafe.

Frankly, I think that the original format, and saving the material posted on it, was the best.