On Friday, the BBC's in-house climate correspondent, Paul Hudson, wrote
an utter failure of an article about global warming. Sadly, the right
has picked it up; having BBC attached to such uninformed denialism allows the ignorant, anti-science crowd crow that the left is losing on global warming (science, again, with its political leanings).
So, a takedown of the BBC's article is below (x-posted at
this forum):
What happened to good journalism? The BBC should be embarrassed to have published
this article. Let's go through it line by line.
This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact
that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in
1998. |
So far, so good. Nothing wrong there. (Although it's not a
surprise that 1998 was the warmest year on record--it was the strongest
El Nino year of the 20th century [link below].) Oh, and the headline is
not a surprise: news organizations benefit from consumer attention.
But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.
|
Whoops! Already inaccurate. While it's true that no year has been
as hot as 98, that's because 98 was an outlier, well above the trend
line.
But there has been, in fact, a continued warming trend.
AGW does not claim that every year will be hotter than the previous
year; on the contrary, it argues that, over time, the global trend will
continue to increase in correlation with accelerated amounts of CO2 in
the atmosphere.
And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon
dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has
continued to rise. |
Just a wretched sentence. "Our climate models did not forecast
it."
What does that "it" refer to? Just go back and check--there's not a
clear antecedent in the previous sentence. (Of course, the temperature
trend has continued upward,
just as models predicted, even though the climate models have actually
underpredicted the temperature rise.)
Also, what an oddly constructed phrase: "man-made carbon dioxide, the
gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet." That "thought to
be" blurs the issue. How about a rewrite: "man-made carbon dioxide, the
gas argued to be responsible for warming the planet by
hundreds of thousands of scholarly articles and that
no peer-reviewed scientific work has refuted in any meaningful way." And if you'd like to mention Benny Peiser's response that claims there's plenty of scientific debate, you
should read this first.
Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that
man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming. |
Also, flat earth theorists continue to "passionately and
consistently argue" that the earth is flat. Young earth creationists
continue to "passionately and consistently argue" that the fossil
record is utterly meaningless for determining the age of the planet.
They don't have science on their side, but they sure do have tenacity!
Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from
the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the
Sun. |
Just to note here, remember it for later: AGW acknowledges solar activity in global temperatures.
The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and
cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those
trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.
And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't
have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds
University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.
|
Who is
Piers Corbyn? What is
Weatheraction?
Guess what? He makes predictions about the weather, predictions that
are sometimes accurate and sometimes inaccurate, and he doesn't make
public his method. Why, he
must be a reliable source on a scientific issue!
He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is
currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely
responsible for what happens to global temperatures.
He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the
international scientific community at a conference in London at the end
of the month. |
Ah, he has a claim. Has he released any evidence? Nope. What will
his evidence consist of? No one knows. Is this newsworthy? Yes. Why?
Because Piers Corbyn is "so excited" about the claim he making, which
the author of the BBC article has seen none of the evidence for.
If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.
|
If I dropped an apple, yet gravity did not pull the apple to the ground, that
could
revolutionize the whole subject. And you know what else is possible?
Someone systematically refuting hundreds of thousands of peer-reviewed
articles worth of research that argues for global warming (and, just to
reiterate, almost no peer-reviewed scientific articles refuting it).
Sure, it
could happen. Why not? Also, it could rain frogs tomorrow.
What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.
. . . .
For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means
warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global
temperatures were warm too.
But in the last few years it [the ocean] has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.
|
Do news organizations have fact checkers anymore? Has the ocean been losing its warmth and been starting to cool down?
Check the link.
But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.
|
This seems like it would be a good place in the BBC article to
mention that the scientists who are passionate about their science
being solid
actually have science on their side. (If you're scoring at home, that's hundreds of thousands of articles to
one.
The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate
predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into
its climate models, and that they are nothing new.
In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known
factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted
for by its models.
In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never
increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of
slower warming, or even temporary cooling.
What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global
temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly
up. |
I find it interesting how the article treats the evidenceless
claim by Piers Corbyn and the UK Met Office, which relies on constantly
updated scientific data, as equal claims.
To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of
the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may
indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last
another 10-20 years. |
Actually, this doesn't "confuse the issue even further." To clear
up the confusion, you just have to read a couple of paragraphs down:
But [Latif] makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he
believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming
force of man-made global warming reasserts itself. |
So, to sum up: Mojib Latif sees a brief period of cooling coming,
which he "believes" will be followed by warming. Interesting that he
just "believes" this. On what is his belief based? Oh, if only the
article could tell us. But, for some reason, it chooses not to.
Journamalism at its finest!
One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global
warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up. |
Oh, a couple other things are for sure. One, the "debate" over global
warming is only taking place outside of where scientists publish their
research findings. Two, that "some would say it is hotting up" is, sadly, the sentence Mr. Hudson clearly put the most work into.
Good post, booferama, although you're flying in the face of the principle that controversy generates readership, while consensus is somnifacient. Furhermore, as I think Doonesbury may have suggested - on an important topic, we should present both sides, the side supported by the facts and the other side. Hudson is just doing his job.
Just to add a couple of further points, as if you needed them:
Hadcrut data place 1998 as the warmest. GISS data give that position to 2005. Not that it matters much, but even the claim about 1998 is selective.
Despite assertions by some skeptics, the PDO is not truly cyclical in demonstrating a predictable periodicity; rather, it is sporadic. If one averages out PDO effects over the course of the 20th century, they come out to about zero, while of course the overall trend has been one of warming.
A recent GRL paper suggested that internal oceanic variations, including the PDO, may account for more of the variation in global temperatures than is found in the models. This analysis, while likely to be controversial, did not suggest that the upward trend was negated, and in fact argued that if the climate response to these internal variations is greater than modeled, then climate sensitivity is probably greater than the mid-range value of 3C that is commonly used in climate projections.
The notion that the next revelation will "revolutionize" climate science is entertaining, except that we've seen that movie before, haven't we? Didn't the alleged invalidity of the "hockey stick" already revolutionize climate science? Or the Svensmark sunspot data? Or the Miskolczi proof that it is theoretically impossible for CO2 to raise temperature substantially? And there's always Monckton, isn't there? Also, Lindzen and Choi recently published a GRL paper showing that climate sensitivity to CO2 is actually 0.5 C due to a predominant negative feedback, didn't they? (Well no, but they think they did, except that their data were totally irrelevant to CO2 effects).
I realize your piece is cross-posted from another forum, but I believe that until climate legislation takes over from healthcare reform as a dominant subject of political debate in the U.S., TPM readers probably won't pay much attention to the details you've lavished on this topic. When the time comes, however, your input will be very valuable.
October 10, 2009 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure the right has attached itself to this article. The good news is that it is written by a journalist, not a scientist, and is unlikely to impress anyone not already dedicated to skepticism.
October 11, 2009 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The BBC is just the British version of CNN....lovers of the Status Quo and nary a challenge to conventional wisdom. I wouldn't get too worked up about it. Watch some Al-Jazeera if you need a new perspective.
October 11, 2009 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It sounds as though the BBC article is emphasizing some great revelation from none other than... Piers Corbyn. Again. Interesting guy, but not one I bet the farm on.
From Wikipedia, "Piers Richard Corbyn... is, in the meteorological community, a maverick British weather forecaster and consultant, and owner of the business Weather Action which makes weather forecasts up to a year in advance, and which he also bets on...."
The Brits have a half-dozen of these famous quasi-scientific voices, who periodically go out and make Climate Change skeptic pronouncements, and the media LOVES it. e.g. David Bellamy
October 11, 2009 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink