DKos / R2000 One day Poll: O50-M44
Tracking Polls
One thing to keep in mind about these tracking polls, (especially the Daily Kos / R2000 poll which generally has McCain at 40 or 41%), McCain will get at least 45% of the vote, more probably 46 or 47%...
In any event, a 4 or 5 point win means an electoral college landslide for Barack!
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Completely agree. Obama 53, McCain 47 is a very likely scenario at this point. That would make him the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to get more than 50.
And if that vote is distributed like it appears it might be, then Obama would get more than 350 electoral votes.
October 17, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I got it 51-47, but you are right on. The problem with the 10-13 point Obama leads in some polls right now is that the narrative over the final 2-1/2 weeks will be "McCain closes Gap" (viz. Drudge).
I would much rather have the Rasmussen 50-46 "steady as she goes" narrative than the DKos/R2000-Drudge narrative which will inevitably be reinforced by the good folks at Gallup/USA Today.
October 17, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink