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AP Poll is BS!!! O48-M38 RVs; O44-M43 LVs
That AP Poll has Obama Leading 48-38 among RVs dropping to 44-43 among Likely. How Likely is that?
Can anyone smell Ron Fournier et al.?
Can anyone smell Ron Fournier et al.?
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Saw that. An outlier among outliers for sure.
October 22, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
It depends on how they define likely voters. Some polls have defined them as having voted in the last two Presidential elections. If that is the case with this poll that eliminates all voters under 26 years old (since they couldn't have voted in 2000 as 17 yr olds), any newly registered voter from 2000 on, and anybody who didn't vote in 2000 and/or 2004.
So if that is the case - given that standard, Obama leading at all is a huge win.
October 22, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Likely voter models this year are a crock of shite! They should all just go with RV and forget their ridiculous models. The idea that 48% of RVs say they support Obama but that 10% of them will not be voting is beyond ridiculous!
October 22, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about this, they have 45 percent of evangelical born christians as Registered voters and 44 percent as LIKELY voters. HUH!?!? 45% of the electorate are Evangelical born again Christians!?!? Obama is winning anyway!?!?
October 22, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Evidently, this poll defined a Likely Voter as "a voter likely to vote for McCain." And even with that likely voter model, Obama's ahead by a point.
October 22, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew there was something weird about that. Good find. I expect the media to try and make this race seem closer than what it is in the coming days.
October 22, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they are trying to find ways to report a tighter race in part to provide cover for voter supression/cheating...
October 22, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're just trying to keep things interesting. They sell news, and the fact is, this election is quickly running out of news. Here--I'll make it easy for AP. Here's the headline:
Barack Obama Wins In A Landslide
October 22, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
The reason this poll is bullshit is because they have defined the likely voter universe as about 44 percent evangelical. I know that this is a religious country but that is crazy. There needs to be some investigation into this poll. Does this skew the poll of polls nonsense?
October 22, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You really don't have to dig into the internals (BUT THANKS very informative!)
Truth is with a kazillion polls out now, well, if it looks like an outlier, it is an outlier
October 22, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
with a 95% level of confidence, one out of twenty polls will be an outlier (where the actual opinion of the public lies outside the margin of error) - that's one poll every 2.5 days if there are 8 major national polling organizations releasing daily polls.
October 22, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe it's the estimated final results after the Republicans tamper with the votes on Election Day.
:-) But O will win anyway!
October 22, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you do the calculations, what they are saying is that while among the 931 registered voters, Obama is up by 10% (47-37) but among the 800 "likely" voters in this pool he's up by 1% (44-43) meaning that 65% of the "unlikely" voters (that extra 131) are Obama supporters. If you believe that you're about as smart as Sarah Palin on foreign policy. Furthermore, calculating again, its saying that ALL of McCain's supporters are likely voters.
October 22, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the reason it will be more of a blowout than most of these people see coming. I am talking about electoral, maybe even touching 400 if we can manage to take WV, GA an ND/MT.
October 23, 2008 2:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I just did the math.
37 percent of 931 RV = 344.47
43 percent of 800 LV = 344
Even allowing for rounding, that's just crazy.
October 23, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, just looked at the cross tabs, and it's actually 1101 RV vs. 800 LV. So ignore that up there.
But still, it's a screwy model.
October 23, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink