I think Obama can win this election.  I even think he will.  But if he does, it will because we didn't coast to the finish.  It'll be because we continued going door-to-door, working the phones, and pouring all our energy into this election -- all the way through election day.

Why does it matter what we do? As political eggheads, we're well aware that Obama's victory hinges on several key "Bush" states: NV, CO, NM, NC, VA, NC, IN, IA, MO, GA, OH and FL.  All of those states are close enough that the difference in the election will be made by which voters actually show up and vote.
Sure, the dynamics of the race will continue to shift until November 5th (and hopefully not beyond); but there's nothing you or I can do about that.  What we can do is make sure that people who support Obama actually cast their ballot.  We can go right up to their house, knock on their door, and say, "have you voted yet?  Did you know you can vote early -- today, in fact?"  We can remind them how critical it is that they vote and make sure they, too, don't let down their guard because of fluctuations in the polls.

Why not just sit back and enjoy the upswing?  Why waste your time talking to voters, when you're pretty sure Obama has -- say -- Virginia locked up? Because imagine how you would feel on November 5th if you woke up to hear that McCain had closed the gap there in Virginia and won it by half a percentage point?  And imagine, further, how you would feel if the polls turned out to be wrong about Florida and Ohio and Nevada.... and if an army of frightened Republican volunteers had marched door-to-door in Missouri, and in North Carolina, and in New Mexico, turning out the vote in record numbers.   Or if a last-minute terrorist scare convinced voters who had been leaning Obama that they really weren't sure any more.  Just imagine how you would feel if all that happened -- and you hadn't done anything?  

I check the latest polling results on fivethirtyeight.com as compulsively as anyone, so I know that the odds right now look highly favorable for an Obama victory.  But odds are just that -- odds.  A 90% chance doesn't mean you win all the time; it means that once out of ten times, you lose.

We've got a good advantage going in to this election now, but from here on out, it's up to us.  We can make sure that this election -- 2008 -- is not that one time out of ten.