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Krugman's Advice To Obama: Figure out how much help you think the economy needs, then add 50 percent.


Some sound advice from Paul Krugman and an elaboration of reasons why the new administration should not be afraid to be bold. Here's a short excerpt from the piece in today's NYT:

F.D.R. wasn't just reluctant to pursue an all-out fiscal expansion -- he was eager to return to conservative budget principles. That eagerness almost destroyed his legacy. After winning a smashing election victory in 1936, the Roosevelt administration cut spending and raised taxes, precipitating an economic relapse that drove the unemployment rate back into double digits and led to a major defeat in the 1938 midterm elections.

What saved the economy, and the New Deal, was the enormous public works project known as World War II, which finally provided a fiscal stimulus adequate to the economy's needs.

This history offers important lessons for the incoming administration.

The political lesson is that economic missteps can quickly undermine an electoral mandate. Democrats won big last week -- but they won even bigger in 1936, only to see their gains evaporate after the recession of 1937-38. Americans don't expect instant economic results from the incoming administration, but they do expect results, and Democrats' euphoria will be short-lived if they don't deliver an economic recovery.

Here's a link to the whole essay. It's short, incisive and worth a read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/opinion/10krugman.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin

 


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rough guess: 4 trillion over the next 4 years.

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burtg

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