The Iranian government is facing a serious crisis of their own making, and that crisis is about to get worse over the next 60 days. Most of us are aware of the international pressure the regime faces, and despite the light tone of the sanctions so far, they are having an effect in the form of serious capital flight from the country. Foreign banks are reluctant to finance any projects in the country while the threat of more sanctions looms, and even domestic investment capital is shifting to more investment-friendly places like Dubai. This is forcing the Iranian government to self-fund their own projects, and they’re getting the money by siphoning an ever-increasing slice of national oil revenues. The result is that investment in vital energy infrastructure is plummeting, and dire predictions are being made about Iran’s ability to continue producing oil at current levels.
It gets worse. Official inflation stands at a little over 13%, but a parliamentary study puts the numbers closer to 23% annually. Imagine going to the grocery store and the price of tomatoes jumps by 50 cents a pound every week. This is what the Iranian people are facing. It’s important to remember this is a nation where school teachers make an average of $ 70 a week, which puts them below the poverty line. The people charged with educating the next generation of Iranian youth can’t even afford to buy non-subsidized fruit and vegetables for their children anymore. After recent contract negotiations broke down, teachers took to the streets to protest and were met with the usual heavy-handed regime response, which saw many of them hauled off to jail and accused of “collaborating with foreign powers”. The regime has become so fragile, they are even leveling these charges against leaders with impeccable Revolutionary credentials like former President Khatami’s brother, who will be put on trial soon for “acting against the Islamic system”. The images of Robespierre and the French Revolution come to mind, where suspicion and paranoia became so pervasive no one was safe from a trip to the guillotine, including Robespierre himself.
So, why are the next 60 days so important? Iranians have enjoyed some of the lowest fuel prices in the world for decades, because the government has heavily subsidized gasoline prices. It costs a little over 5 cents a gallon right now, but those prices are going to be raised to 22 cents in May. This is going to raise prices across the board for everyday items and food, in addition to the fuel Iranians must purchase to get back and forth to work. An already unbearable inflationary spiral is going to continue to spiral out of control. No one can accurately predict how this will play out.
Second, the teachers are not going away quietly, and will be staging a massive protest on April 30 and May 1. They will be joined on May 1 by over a million “illegal” (according to the government) union employees who plan to strike to protest a new law the government is trying to pass, which will strip them of the few worker’s rights they already have. Organizing labor is illegal in Iran, as well as protesting for a better life for yourself and your family. The new law is designed to allow the government to sell off their inefficient state-run companies, but they will simply be sold to members of the Revolutionary Guard, which in essence means workers lives and their jobs are still controlled by conservative hard-liners, and termination for dissent is a powerful reason to keep quiet about politics. Given these realities, one has to admire the courage of Iranians who dare to protest, putting their careers and personal freedom in jeopardy.
How the Iranian government handles this looming crisis could determine the fate of this regime. They are either going to have crack down harshly against this challenge to their authority, or they are going to have to give in to the demands of the people. There is a potential for counter-revolution in Iran right now, but the closed nature of the society makes it impossible to predict. It could happen when the overwhelming majority of poor people become so desperate, they feel they have nothing to lose by defying a government that cares nothing for their plight.
Ordinary Iranians are just like us – struggling to get through life the best way they know how, and public opinion in Iran favors better relations with the international community, including the US. It’s an increasingly global world, and Iranians want to be a part of it. How could we as a nation help them in the coming days and weeks?
Military intervention is out of the question, and would backfire by uniting the Iranian people against a national threat. Direct political intervention in the form of financing protest groups and NGO’s is not a good strategy for Iran. A paranoid regime will simply point to this foreign financing as proof there is an “enemy foreign plot” and anybody accepting this money will be tainted with the label of a collaborator with Iran’s enemies.
It’s important to remember that despite their internal problems, the Iranian government is very much engaged in exporting their “Islamic system” to the rest of the Islamic world. Ahmadenijad actually sees Iran as a model for the rest of Muslims to follow, under the leadership of Iran’s Supreme Leader. They may care little for the economic plight of their people, but they care a great deal about their religious authority and legitimacy. In fact, it’s all they really have to offer. If you take that away from them, you make them very vulnerable indeed.
This presents a unique opportunity for the US government to engage all the military, intelligence, and state department resources at our disposal to launch a massive publicity campaign against Iran, which openly calls into question their Islamic legitimacy. Satellite images, for example, which capture images of masses of Iranians protesting for a better life, being beaten and arrested by Iranian regime thugs beamed around the world would do serious damage to the image of this government – and that damage could be especially acute in the Arab world.
How can an Islamic government based on Islamic principles of “peace and justice” treat their people in this manner? Where do they get the authority in the pages of the Koran to deny their people the most basic civil rights? Why do Iranians living in “corrupt” Western nations have more civil rights and civil liberties protected by the rule of law than 70 million Iranians living inside the borders of their own nation? Does the Islamic world have the right to openly question the association of their religion with a regime that behaves in this fashion? Raising these questions publicly and with a high volume would force the regime in a reactive, defensive posture, and that’s where you always want your opponent.
This, in my view, is the best way to help ordinary Iranians, by giving them cover to express themselves openly. The regime would have to be very cautious in their response, if they know that uncensorable US satellites are watching their every move, and will use the footage against them. The freedom of expression this could provide to suffering Iranians would help them to demand and get the just reforms they seek.
I release these ideas to the blogosphere, but remain dubious as to whether a creatively-challenged White House and State Department would see the wisdom of opening up this new front against Iran, even though it could achieve their goals by enlisting a massive army of Iranians who have the same objective – all without a shot fired.
