avatar

bpurcell

User profile »

Obama should embrace FL and MI revotes now.

I am a big Obama supporter and have been since late summer.  With the exception of Daschle, I've been disappointed with the talk from Obama supporters about the proposed Florida and Michigan revotes.  Daschle on Meet the Press was the first supporter that I've seen say Obama would supporter revotes. 

My personal feeling is that it's a losing argument to keeping on harping about how FL and MI broke the rules.  I think it's general accepted that the original votes were straw poll at best and any delegates need to be allocated another way. 

Obama should have a press conference where he fully embraces the revotes in both states.  Odds are he will still lose FL, but the percentage will likely be much closer.  As for MI, he has an excellent shot of actually winning it, causing the delegate count to nearly be evened out between the two.  Plus, he will look like the bigger person and willing to do something that could potentially hurt his political chances. 

That would be a good example of showing the new politics.

Digging deeper into SurveyUSA 50 state poll

I've looked at the actual poll numbers by state for the SurveyUSA 50 state poll.  Here is some info I've seen:

Using the assumption that a 4 pt spread is "too close to call", I've listed the states that each candidate wins with 4 pt or less and the number of Electoral Votes.

Clinton V McCain:
Clinton: HI 4, MN 10, NM 5, PA 21, WI 10 = 50 EV
McCain: MI 17, MO 11, TN 11, WA 11 = 50 EV

Obama V McCain:
Obama: VA 13, NH 4, ND 3, NE 2 (split), MI 17 = 39 EV
McCain: TX 34, SD 3, SC 8, NC 15, NJ 15, NE 3 (split), FL 27 = 105 EV

Common Close States: MI 17

This tells me that Clinton v McCain will be tightly fought contest among only a few states, much like 2004.  An Obama v McCain contest will be more far reaching, and McCain will be the one having to defend a lot of normally red states.  If it comes down to money, McCain would need to spread his money much further to try and overtaken Obama than he would Clinton.


Polls need to be stopped!

It seems to me that so much of the "Hillary big comeback" talk is based on recent polls showing a close race, or Obama up by a little.  It's clear that polls in this primary season have been wildly off mark and not worth the money put into them.  If no polls had been taken the last two weeks, the news might've actually been "Obama moves closer to nomination with closer than expected primaries in TX and OH".  Hillary has succeeded in the expectations game, not the delegate game.
Also, is there any way to get the pundits to stop heralding the imminent  demise of the Clinton candidacy?  It's seems that many of the late breakers are going to her simply to extend the race.


Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address