The latest poll NYT/CBS poll has Obama 14 points ahead of McCain nationally and the independents and white men who have recently shifted to Obama.

Voters who said their opinions of Mr. Obama had changed recently were twice as likely to say they had grown more favorable as to say they had worsened. And voters who said that their views of Mr. McCain had changed were three times more likely to say that they had worsened than to say they had improved.

The top reasons cited by those who said they thought less of Mr. McCain were his recent attacks and his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate.

McCain and his surrogates have been practically promising that he will bring up Ayers at the debate.  He upped his own stakes by misquoting Obama as saying McCain didn't have the guts to say it to his face.    He must be particularly bummed about this:

After several weeks in which the McCain campaign sought to tie Mr. Obama to William Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground terrorism group, 64 percent of voters said that they had either read or heard something about the subject. But a majority said they were not bothered by Mr. Obama's background or past associations. Several people said in follow-up interviews that they felt that Mr. McCain's attacks on Mr. Obama were too rooted in the past, or too unconnected to the nation's major problems.

So, to recap: 

• McCain's negatives are up 3 to 1 against his positives; Obama's positives are up  2 to 1 against his negatives since McCain started talking about Ayers and voters cite that as a major reason.
• 64% have already heard about Ayers and don't care.
• If McCain does bring it up to Obama's face Obama will have a chance to defend himself, to turn it on McCain by citing his own unsavory bedfellows, and to scold McCain for trying to distract voters from important issues.
• If  he doesn't bring it up, he's admitting he doesn't have the guts to say it to Obama's face.