I'm not panicking, and here's why
I'm not panicking. I keep reading the concern trolls and the wingnut blogs, because if there's a reason to panic I don't want to be oblivious to it. But I'm not panicking, at least not yet. Here's why.
For one thing, I can see that a lot of the concern trolling about polls is based on cherry-picking the worst polls and ignoring the best, AND ignoring the to-be-expected convention bounce, AND ignoring margins of error in electoral college projections, etc. I think some of the concern trolls understand this and just like to throw people into a tizzy by tossing concern bombs into the cafe.
I see Palin as a net weakness for McCain. AT BEST McCain's selection of Palin forced McCain to go into full-time lying mode. And not subtle lies, but lies so blatant that McCain has lost a lot of the free passes he used to get from the media. He's got no choice. Palin's story without the facade of lies would send all but the hardest of hard-core evangelical wingnuts running.
And that's the best case. There's still a very good chance of any number of things blowing up in a way that would be fatal to McCain's campaign. Troopergate <i>might</i> get squashed. But it might not. The boldest of the concern trolls and the boldest of the wingnuts try to explain away Palin's interview answers as being crafty or even brilliant, but that's wishful thinking. She's out of her depth and bluffing and lying non-stop.
She might pull it off, learning enough to wing her way through the debates and interviews, and stonewalling investigations until after the election at least, and brazenly lying about everything else, but that just puts her in the position of having to sell those lies for six more weeks. That's not a strong position.
And more importantly, it puts McCain in the position of having to sell those lies alongside her, alienating the pundits who used to have some inexplicable respect for his alleged integrity.
I'm not saying that it's impossible for Obama to lose. Obviously there are any number of things that could go wrong.
But I am saying, ignore the concern trolls.
Wait and see how the polls start to settle out over the next few weeks, as more data and more up-to-date data becomes available on the electoral map analyses. And be sure to read up on "margin of error" if you don't understand it so the concern trolls who don't understand it or pretend not to understand it can't use statistically bogus analysis to sell their concerns.
Wait and see if the "McCain is lying" meme catches fire, since the results so far look promising. He's losing a lot of the free pass and presumption of integrity that he's gotten for too long.
Wait and see how the media treat interviews with Palin, when they're given the chance. Charlie Gibson of all people gave a semi-tough interview for Palin. The disdain McCain is showing for the media now may provoke more of thesame.
Wait and see what troopergate brings out, or other results from the vetting that's finally happening for Palin.
None of these things have been happening long enough yet for extrapolations to be meaningful. Wait a bit. There will be enough time to panic later, if necessary.
For one thing, I can see that a lot of the concern trolling about polls is based on cherry-picking the worst polls and ignoring the best, AND ignoring the to-be-expected convention bounce, AND ignoring margins of error in electoral college projections, etc. I think some of the concern trolls understand this and just like to throw people into a tizzy by tossing concern bombs into the cafe.
I see Palin as a net weakness for McCain. AT BEST McCain's selection of Palin forced McCain to go into full-time lying mode. And not subtle lies, but lies so blatant that McCain has lost a lot of the free passes he used to get from the media. He's got no choice. Palin's story without the facade of lies would send all but the hardest of hard-core evangelical wingnuts running.
And that's the best case. There's still a very good chance of any number of things blowing up in a way that would be fatal to McCain's campaign. Troopergate <i>might</i> get squashed. But it might not. The boldest of the concern trolls and the boldest of the wingnuts try to explain away Palin's interview answers as being crafty or even brilliant, but that's wishful thinking. She's out of her depth and bluffing and lying non-stop.
She might pull it off, learning enough to wing her way through the debates and interviews, and stonewalling investigations until after the election at least, and brazenly lying about everything else, but that just puts her in the position of having to sell those lies for six more weeks. That's not a strong position.
And more importantly, it puts McCain in the position of having to sell those lies alongside her, alienating the pundits who used to have some inexplicable respect for his alleged integrity.
I'm not saying that it's impossible for Obama to lose. Obviously there are any number of things that could go wrong.
But I am saying, ignore the concern trolls.
Wait and see how the polls start to settle out over the next few weeks, as more data and more up-to-date data becomes available on the electoral map analyses. And be sure to read up on "margin of error" if you don't understand it so the concern trolls who don't understand it or pretend not to understand it can't use statistically bogus analysis to sell their concerns.
Wait and see if the "McCain is lying" meme catches fire, since the results so far look promising. He's losing a lot of the free pass and presumption of integrity that he's gotten for too long.
Wait and see how the media treat interviews with Palin, when they're given the chance. Charlie Gibson of all people gave a semi-tough interview for Palin. The disdain McCain is showing for the media now may provoke more of thesame.
Wait and see what troopergate brings out, or other results from the vetting that's finally happening for Palin.
None of these things have been happening long enough yet for extrapolations to be meaningful. Wait a bit. There will be enough time to panic later, if necessary.
