« Update from the Land of the Lost | bluemeanie's Blog

In which the author, seeking a discussion on climate change, delines to enter the echo chamber


Last night, for the first time, I seriously considered entering the conservative echo chamber.

Through a news feed I found myself on Town Hall, staring at 300 words of empty rhetoric on Waxman-Markey by Mona Charen. After scanning the article and comments, I was emboldened to add a bit of perspective. I decided giving my address and phone number to Town Hall was too high a price to pay, but it left me thinking.

Ostensibly, Charen's intent was to use HR 2454 to brand the president as a run-of-the-mill liberal idealogue hopelessly out of touch with the "realities" of climate change and global politics. Although I couldn't stomach a close reading of the entire screed, two apparently contradictory observations caught my eye.

The first was a bit of rote climate change denial. Charen notes, without source, that global temperatures have "flatlined" since 2001. Intrigued, I surfed over to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which maintains a database on global temperature trends. The trend does appear flat -- provided you tilt your head at a 45 degree angle.

This hurts my neck, which is perhaps one of the reasons I don't do prayer so well.  Anyway, I assume her "data" must have come from someone in the oil industry, who had simply rotated the chart to get a talking point. George Will has no problem with this kind of analysis, so why should Mona Charen?

It continually amazes me that any rational individual can write off the patient research of thousands of climate scientists as fear-mongering by some liberal cabal. Even if you can, I can't believe you'd want to take even a 50-50 chance that they're right. But no matter.

I shook my head, and moved on.

That brought me to the second observation and another other conservative talking point: with India and China belching CO2 to beat the band, any action on greenhouse gases by the U.S. will be futile anyway. This confused me, because a few paragraphs up she argued that climate change didn't exist. She also failed to mention that while we still have a clear edge in production of greenhouse gases and dither over energy policy, China is positioned to become a global leader in solar and is taking a fair run at clean coal. And India, which has at least signed the Kyoto Protocol, is probably putting more low-emission vehicles on the road per capita than we are. We shouldn't be dissembling our lack of leadership, we should be embarrassed.

The rest of the article is predictable, as are the flame-throwing, me-too comments. But here's the problem. In this case, you can't dismiss this as reactionary pandering to the Republican rump. These arguments and their corollaries -- like the hypocrisy that says conservatives should oppose progressive policy on climate change because they care about the poor -- form a sizable chunk of the 212 nay votes on Waxman-Markey.

That's a huge echo chamber. Filled with an awful lot of folks that, to paraphrase Dave Matthews, seem to welcome perpetual summer and the chance to kick off their shoes and dive in the empty ocean.

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These arguments and their corollaries -- like the hypocrisy that says conservatives should oppose progressive policy on climate change because they care about the poor -- form a sizable chunk of the 212 nay votes on Waxman-Markey.

You may be right, bluemeanie, but's it my impression that most of the opposition was based on cost, not science. In the Senate, I expect Inhofe to continue to insist that global warming is a myth, but I believe that few if any other senators will concur. The principal opposition will again relate to cost/effectiveness of cap and trade legislation rather than the need to control carbon emissions.

The irony is that the cost of failing to control emissions is likely to be astronomical, but it will probably receive less attention than it deserves in the debate.

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Fred, I agree that cost has become the focal point of the debate, but the underlying issue is whether the end justifies the means.

At its core, the Republican argument is that increasing cost will curb consumption. Which of course is exactly the point.

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Most of the science on Global Climate Change concludes that CO2 is a primary driver of global warming.

We've been emitting more and more CO2 into the atmosphere every year, yet for eleven of the past twelve years the average global temperatures have been decreasing.

Rather than find the reason this is happening, people write this trend off as "Oh, it's just a fluke." Good science doesn't have flukes. We can predict the movement of a celestial body millions of light years away, but we can not predict what the global temperature will be next year? That doesn't sound like science, that sounds like guessing.

Don't forget, not long ago scientists declared that the earth was flat, and that the world was cooling.

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I used NASA datapoints and Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, which determined that 11 of the 12 years in the period studied (1995-2006) rank among the dozen warmest years since 1850. The report calls evidence that the planet is warming "unequivocal" and likely due to observed increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.

There are studies that dispute IPCC data on both the high side and the low side, but it strikes me that when evidence of climate change becomes irrefutable its impact will be irreversible.

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While they may be the warmest in the past 160 years, this does not mean that 11 of the past 12 years do not indicate a cooling trend.

Further, there are 31000 scientists that oppose the idea that humans have any impact on global climate change. The IPCC report was a majority amont 600 scientists, heavily influenced by politicians.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=64734

I know enough to know that the information regarding climate change is not "unequivocal." If it were, then we would be able to predict how much "greenhouse gasses" cause exactly how much increase in global temperature. Since we really have no idea what we're talking about, we allow people to take correlations as causalities.

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A degree in a field of scientific study does not automatically make someone a "scientist," let alone one qualified to render an opinion on climate study (the Petition Project includes nearly 20,000 MS and BS degrees and 2,500 MDs and DVMs).

Frankly, I don't consider my vet's opinion on this issue any more valid than mine. Or my college roommate's (BS, went to law school), or my brother-in-law's (PhD, neurology).

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