BillBela's Blog

Interesting McCain "bump" on Intrade

2008-10-30T22:32:20Z

Watching the Intrade graph has been one of my favorite pastimes in this election cycle. I especially love the way the Obama/McCain graphs bounced apart on Sept 16th or 17th and have not been close since! It is much easier on my nerves than watching the daily polls.

So I looked a little closer when I noticed that McCain got a bit of a boost in the last couple of days, going from ~12 to ~15. Not a huge change, but could this be a sign of the dreaded "tightening"?

Looking at the trading numbers I suspect it is more a case of a McCain supporter (or supporters) pouring in a bit of money to help advance the McSurge narrative.

Hint: Once you get to the Intrade site, click on 2008.PRES.McCAIN. Then click on "Advanced Graphing" and choose a "Custom" Time Period, 60 days. The green bars on the bottom are the volume indicators. Something has definitely happened in the last couple of days. The volume bars for 2008.PRES.OBAMA do not show a corresponding leap in volume, which tends to make me think that this purely a long play on McCain.

I am far from an Intrade expert, I would welcome comments for anyone with more insight into this market move.

Did Exxon-Mobile just endorse Obama?

2008-10-30T17:53:24Z

Yes, I know that Exxon-Mobile will never "endorse" Obama, but the timeliness of the reports of record profits for oil companies is uncanny. That it dovetails so nicely with Obama's campaign message must be more that mere coincidence.

Good news in Montana?

2008-09-09T23:27:50Z

Ron Paul has been added to the ballot in Montana as the candidate for the Constitution Party. I have roots in the state and over the last six months I've been impressed by the strength of support for Ron Paul in Montana

I think this is good news--Ron Paul will pull a lot votes away from the McCain camp--folks that would never vote for Obama/Biden.