BillBela's Blog

BillBela Commented on Palin On Not Revealing Whether She Voted For Ted Stevens: "I Am Exercising My Right To Privacy" by Greg Sargent

2008-11-04T20:09:13Z

It is too bad that she won't really be gone. Just this morning I read that one of her supporters predicted that she would "at least run for President". It was the "at least" part that made me shiver--is she aiming for something more powerful than President?

BillBela Commented on Is GOP Senator Gordon Smith Doomed? Early Voting Numbers Suggest It's Possible by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-31T22:51:35Z

This is a great way to end the week. I have been canvassing on weekends and delivering lawn signs for Merkley since early in the primary (and it was a tough primary, too). At times it seemed quixotic--daring to think we could pull down an incumbent Senator that was--to be frank--fairly well liked in the state.

But I bought into the idea that grassroots support and a feet-on-the-street organization could carry the day. I think it helped that Jeff endorsed Obama early in the primary--before it was a safe thing to do. It caused some friction, but after the primary the Merkley campaign in my neighborhood moved into an office with the Obama campaign.

Coordination of efforts leveraged the dozens (hundreds?) of volunteers that came streaming into the Obama/Merkley office. It is awe-inspiring to have been a small part of this effort. Before this campaign I have never done more than vote and send money. But I can tell you now that it is a great privilege to knock on doors and have a few minutes to chat about the election with my fellow citizens.

I will be out again this weekend, with an extra spring in my step. Not because I think Jeff will need the couple of extra votes that I may be able to sway, but because it will be (until next election) my last, best chance to engage in meaningful conversations about politics with complete strangers.

Reading the poll numbers in Eric's article brought a little mist to my eyes. And joy to my heart. Go Jeff! Go Barack! Go Us!

BillBela Commented on Is GOP Senator Gordon Smith Doomed? Early Voting Numbers Suggest It's Possible by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-31T22:20:36Z

NEWS

BillBela recommended Is GOP Senator Gordon Smith Doomed? Early Voting Numbers Suggest It's Possible by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-31T21:57:29Z

BillBela Commented on Interesting McCain "bump" on Intrade by BillBela

2008-10-31T00:27:45Z

Interesting read, thanks!

BillBela recommended Update: Palin Snubs President of Penn State University, Gets Booed by Baseball Fans in Erie by astral66

2008-10-30T20:19:35Z

BillBela recommended GOP barks (was W.'s DOJ barks but.....) by 1849

2008-10-30T20:48:20Z

BillBela recommended The Wind on the Beartooth Plateau by Lux Umbra Dei

2008-10-30T02:05:13Z

BillBela Commented on Nielsen: One-Fifth Of Households In Top Markets Watched Obama Infomercial by Greg Sargent

2008-10-30T17:28:32Z

The calls you received may have been phone bank calls. In Oregon we have pretty good data when we start our calls--the elections offices release daily lists of who has already voted--but the first question is still "have you voted?", since we do not want to waste time on folks that mailed their ballot the day before. The second question is: "If you were voting today who would you vote for...?" This may sound like a poll to the person on the other end, but it is a political GOTV operation.

BillBela Commented on Nielsen: One-Fifth Of Households In Top Markets Watched Obama Infomercial by Greg Sargent

2008-10-30T17:11:14Z

Here is a link to a recent Survey USA poll in Oregon. "800 Oregon adults were interviewed 10/25/08 and 10/26/08. Of them 736 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 are included in the likely voter mix." Out of the 672 likely voters, 50% had already voted and are listed as "actual" voters.
This is a state poll, but from what I've seen the national polls are done in a similar fashion.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0b63ff1a-61f7-4ec0-bd56-38d157768f62

BillBela Commented on Nielsen: One-Fifth Of Households In Top Markets Watched Obama Infomercial by Greg Sargent

2008-10-30T16:44:21Z

I am looking for a link... I remember reading this a couple of days ago. I'll post it once I've found it.

BillBela Commented on Nielsen: One-Fifth Of Households In Top Markets Watched Obama Infomercial by Greg Sargent

2008-10-30T16:33:20Z

They do poll people that have already voted. The fact that they have already voted helps move them into the "Likely Voter" category. :-)

BillBela recommended Truthseeker77 admits defeat again by Tankard2

2008-10-28T17:33:21Z

BillBela recommended Obama Draws 100,000 In Denver by Chris Brown

2008-10-26T20:09:16Z

BillBela recommended Looking Forward by Chris

2008-10-25T21:24:30Z

BillBela Commented on Dept. of Enthusiasm Gaps: New Mexico Edition by Jade7243

2008-10-26T07:00:27Z

Thanks for posting! A wonderfully uplifting bit of news to read while I ice my arthritic knee after another day of canvassing.

BillBela Commented on TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Grows Again by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-23T22:01:08Z

I am filling up the spare space in my head with just four words:

GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

BillBela recommended Hillary's PAC Donates $500,000 To House And Senate Candidates by Greg Sargent

2008-10-23T21:24:02Z

BillBela Commented on Hillary's PAC Donates $500,000 To House And Senate Candidates by Greg Sargent

2008-10-23T21:54:40Z

I feel good about the donation I sent to Hillary after she announced the "Hillary Sent Me" initiative.

BillBela Commented on Poll: Red State Of Montana Up For Grabs by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-23T20:59:49Z

Dang, should have read "...whether Ron Paul votes will hurt Obama or McCain"

BillBela Commented on Poll: Red State Of Montana Up For Grabs by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-23T20:56:41Z

Go read the Constitution Party Platform (if you have a strong stomach and time to spare) and then see if you are still trying to guess whether the Ron Paul votes will Obama or McCain.
http://www.constitutionparty.com/party_platform.php

BillBela Commented on Poll: Red State Of Montana Up For Grabs by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-23T20:51:12Z

Ron Paul is the Constitution Party candidate. A lot of right wingers in Montana will vote for Ron Paul to send a message to the National Party. A couple of elections ago a Democrat (Windham) won a seat in the State Legislature in a very conservative district. It was a three-way race between Windham, a Republican and the Constitution party candidate. Windham won by a whisker in a multiple recount that was finally decided by the Montana Supreme Court. Two years later, the Republicans sat out the election and the Constitution party candidate (Rick Jore) won handily.

Everywhere you drive in Montana you see a lot of Ron Paul signs--these folks are serious. I don't think any of the pollsters have really captured the Ron Paul backlash vote.

I think it could be especially high given McCain's poor showing nationally. The Montana conservatives will find it easy to vote Ron Paul if they know that McCain doesn't have a chance.

BillBela Commented on TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Expands Again by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-22T02:01:42Z

Not that it really matters (except to the folks in Crawford), but it is likely that GWB will be headin' to Dallas in January. (OK, it may matter to folks in Dallas, too.)
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/10/13/081013fa_fact_colloff

BillBela Commented on Where's Al Gore? by aleph

2008-10-17T20:29:16Z

Al Gore is coming to Oregon on the 24th to help Jeff Merkley. We are really on the bubble in the Oregon Senate race--I think all the polls are still within the MoE.

BillBela recommended Webb: Obama Has Roots In Appalachia by Greg Sargent

2008-10-17T17:45:17Z

BillBela Commented on Webb: Obama Has Roots In Appalachia by Greg Sargent

2008-10-17T18:10:56Z

The Oct. 6th New Yorker had a very good article on what Webb is doing to help Obama in Virginia, worth a look if you have time: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/10/06/081006fa_fact_boyer

BillBela Commented on TPM Track Composite: Obama Has Big Lead, But Possibly Narrowing by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-16T20:36:43Z

Forget the pollsters, follow the money.
One Irish bookmaker has already called it for Obama:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aFfie8dEVE6Y

In solidarity with this kind of thinking I may indulge myself with a pint of Guinness tonight. (And then back to canvassing this weekend).

BillBela recommended A Call To Action! Prepare for Voter Fraud, Suppression and the Stolen Electon by raider99

2008-10-09T21:59:20Z