Watching the Intrade graph has been one of my favorite pastimes in this election cycle.  I especially love the way the Obama/McCain graphs bounced apart on Sept 16th or 17th and have not been close since!   It is much easier on my nerves than watching the daily polls. 

So I looked a little closer when I noticed that McCain got a bit of a boost in the last couple of days, going from ~12 to ~15. Not a huge change, but could this be a sign of the dreaded "tightening"?

Looking at the trading numbers I suspect it is more a case of a McCain supporter (or supporters) pouring in a bit of money to help advance the McSurge narrative.

Hint: Once you get to the Intrade site, click on 2008.PRES.McCAIN.  Then click on "Advanced Graphing" and choose a "Custom" Time Period, 60 days.  The green bars on the bottom are the volume indicators.  Something has definitely happened in the last couple of days.  The volume bars for 2008.PRES.OBAMA do not show a corresponding leap in volume, which tends to make me think that this purely a long play on McCain. 

I am far from an Intrade expert, I would welcome comments for anyone with more insight into this market move.