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Week of April 13, 2008 - April 19, 2008

Delegate Numbers: The View Today . . .


NBC's Tally of Pledged Delegates:

Obama = 1416, Clinton = 1252

Using the 3 most recent polls in each state, here are delegate projections for the 10 remaining contests, using Slate's delegate calculator with percentiles in parentheses, Obama first:

PA (45-55) . . . . 71 (O) - 87 (C)
Guam (none) . . . . 2 (O) -   2 (C)
IN (46-54) . . . .  33 (O) - 39 (C)
NC (57-43) . . .  66 (O) - 49 (C)
WV (33-67) . . . . 9 (O) - 19 (C)
KY (31-69) . . . .16 (O) - 35 (C)
OR (55-45) . . . .29 (O) - 23 (C)
PR (42-58) . . . . 42 (O) - 58 (C)
MT (39-61) . . . . .6 (O) - 10 (C)
SD (56-44) . . . . . 8 (O) -   7 (C)

Subtotals: 472 (Obama) - 509 (Clinton)

Projected Pledged Delegate Totals: 1679 (O) - 1551 (C)

Note:
The analysis by Congressional Quarterly  states that Hillary will not get anything close to the delegate numbers that Slate projects with a 55%/45% win because of the vagueries of how Pennsylvania allocates delegates on a proportional basis.

Note: If the Florida & Michigna delegations were seated as voted in January, that would give Clinton a net gain of 50 delegates, leaving Obama with a lead in pledged delegates of 78.

What do you think?







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Bill Marshall

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