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Week of October 12, 2008 - October 18, 2008

Economy helped Obama


Obama starts breaking out in the polls since the economy started to go under. Its clear William Ayers and Wright stuff would have been more hurting if it were not for the economy. It has made Obama's job that much easier. 

If Wright stuff were raised there might been m ore traction in the southern states. Obama was clearly most uncomfortable breaking with Wright than discussing Ayers where the connection much more tenuous. I am surprised they haven't yet broached that subject. 

May be these are left to mailers and 527s. 

can retail politicking help McCain?


When the election came down to wire in NH for John McCain in the primaries, he promised 100 townhalls and that turned things around for him. Since that primary victory in NH, McCain has nothing but constant praise for retail politicking through townhall settings. 

Firstly is it even feasible when all the states go to vote on the same day in a National Election? How much can he do even if he focused in any or all of the battle grounds states?none of which is as small as NH was. 

McCain seems to be focusing like Hillary did on White older voters. The entire Bill Ayers/ACORN tactic seems to be aimed at just that. Chuck Todd recently opined that McCain's economic plan seems to focused mostly on seniors. 

This is a place where Hillary and Joe Biden will be some help to Obama, who has seen seniors move slowly but steadily in to his column. 

Defining Obama



One of the reasons Republicans have been mad about in these final weeks is "How did a unknown quantity like Obama trump a known candidate like McCain". Thats what McCain had been tapping into these weeks using the phrase "Who is the real Barack Obama?" When you take a look at the Obama campaign strategy and their heavy use of Ads through out their campaign, it becomes very clear how anticipatory the Obama campaign had been in their strategy. 

Very early even during the primary season it became apparent that only one candidate was new and unknown. If Obama didn't move quickly to define himself to the public others would do it for him, and in not so benign ways. The latest article in the Christian Science Monitor on Obama expenditure in Ads is making this effort on part of Obama campaign apparent. As the article quotes: 

Obama has outspent McCain 3 - 1 last week and 2 - 1 when combining McCain's spending with the Republican National Committee's independent expenditures.

Howard Wolfson in the same article mirrors this view. 

"Make no mistake -- all the wonderful bio ads that the Obama campaign has been running have had an impact by allowing the campaign to impart critical information about their candidate that voters would not now otherwise be hearing or seeing," he writes on his blog at the New Republic.

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bharath

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