I don’t like to be dismal, but recessions just bring me down. They also bring down the number of jobs in the labor market, down 80,000 last month, the third month in a row that employment contracted and the largest monthly loss in five years.

The unemployment rate jumped up from 4.8% to 5.1%, the highest jobless rate since September 2005,

Since employment peaked in December, payrolls have contracted by 232,000. Private sector payrolls were down 98,000 last month, and 109,000 in February. Since hiring in the government sector is less susceptible to cyclical swings in the overall economy, private sector job patterns provide a clearer signal of the weakening labor market. Since they peaked in November, private sector jobs are down 300,000.

It is often the case that once they get around to it, the official recession is declared to have started at or near the payroll employment peak. Thus, there’s a good chance that the recession will ultimately be recognized to have begun in December or January.

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