I’m sorry to be a dismal scientist, but the US economy appears to me and some other economists, including some big shots, to be entering a recession. Most people think we’re already there. (Given lags in data, recessions don’t get officially identified until after the fact.)

But what does recession mean to folks on the ground? How bad is it, really?

Pretty damn bad. Given recent historical patterns, three million more people could join the unemployment rolls, and middle-income families, already squeezed, and with income levels still recovering from the last recession, could lose another $2,500.

Here’s a quick summary of how things tend to go bad in a downturn.

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My colleague Dean Baker has a fine post up today on one good way to stimulate the economy out of its current doldrums, but I wanted to step back a pace and discuss some basic principles of economic stimulus. I provide this public service because a) there’s a lot of misunderstanding of the basic principles regarding economic stimulus, and b) it’s a good way to avoid doing stuff I should be doing.

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