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Week of November 4, 2007 - November 10, 2007

Block that Extrapolation


In a discussion of yesterday’s electoral wins for Democrats in Virginia, this AM’s Washington Post, suggests an uplifting possibility:

Yesterday's initial results showed that a more long-term structural realignment may be occurring and that voters are increasingly drawn by Democrats' promises to improve schools and ease traffic and away from Republican conservatism on such issues as taxes and social policy, particularly in fast-growing Northern Virginia.

The piece stresses the point that those who played the anti-immigration card fared worse than those who stressed better provision of the services people want and need.

I hope that’s true, but I wonder…

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Our “Look Good, Feel Bad” Economy


Consider this:

The last two quarters of economic growth clocked in at just below 4%, the best consecutive quarters of inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product in four years.

Yet…about two-thirds of respondents (64%) to an ABC News/Washington Post poll out today say the state of the nation’s economy is “not so good” or “poor,” the highest negative rating in two years. Large majorities (69% in the Post poll; 65% in a different poll) believe a recession is imminent.

But…the nation added 166,000 jobs last month, many more than were expected, and the best jobs showing since May.

Yet…the share of respondents (to a different survey) reporting that jobs are “hard to get” is also at a two year high, while the share saying “jobs are plentiful” is at a two-year low. Overall, consumer confidence has been falling sharply since the summer and it too sits at a two-year low.

What’s going on?

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« October 28, 2007 - November 3, 2007 | Home | November 11, 2007 - November 17, 2007 »

Jared Bernstein

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