Should Obama declare a popular vote victory on Tuesday?
For better or worse, the media is paying attention to the popular vote totals. Regardless of your feelings about the relevance of "raw" popular vote as a metric in this primary, Sen. Clinton has been claiming a popular vote lead for a while now. And the MSM, for the most part, hasn't been challenging her on her claims (whether on the validity of citing popular vote as a relevant metric at all or on her method of calculation).
SIDE NOTE: For a nice discussion on how perceptions accompanying popular vote claims might impact the issue of legitimacy, I recommend taking a look at Genghis' recent post on the topic:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/importance-of-the-popular-vote.php
But if you look at the various ways of calculating a popular vote scorecard, it's clear that, at this point, either candidate could cite evidence to support a claim to lead in this metric. I'll refer here to the various scenarios calculated at RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
So far, Obama hasn't been claiming a popular vote lead, even though he has at least as strong a claim to it as Clinton does. It seems to me there are (or have been) a couple good reasons for not doing so:
1. To do so could be seen as an endorsement of popular vote counts as a legitimate metric in the nomination process
2. To do so could be seen as antagonizing Clinton and trying to diminish her attempts to "save face" as the primary season comes to a close, and some think room should be left her for a "graceful exit"
But, at the same time, once Tuesday night arrives and the primary contests are over, there also seem to be reasonable arguments for Obama pushing back a little bit on this issue:
1. It likely would increase the perception that Obama has clinched (or will clinch) the nomination without any ambiguity about the legitimacy of that nomination
2. It would, at the very least, serve as a counterargument to Clinton's claims and remind folks (the media especially) that there is more than one way to count the popular vote (again, assuming at this point that it's going to continue to be discussed at all)
I'm starting to wonder if, since Clinton's talking point on this has firmly taken hold in the media and therefore to some extent with voters, and since Clinton's claim to a popular vote lead isn't necessarily a strong one given the different methods of calculation available, maybe Obama should assert a lead in this metric during his speech on Tuesday. (I'm imagining a single mention to put it out there, not a dissertation that makes it seem like he's paying it an excess of credence.)
So, anyway, I'm wondering what others think about this. Again, I'm not trying to reignite a general discussion here on the relevance of popular vote as a metric on principle, but instead a discussion of how Obama should approach the issue and the perceptions surrounding it as they exist today, in the context of the realities and, yes, spin currently informing media discussion of the topic.
SIDE NOTE: For a nice discussion on how perceptions accompanying popular vote claims might impact the issue of legitimacy, I recommend taking a look at Genghis' recent post on the topic:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/importance-of-the-popular-vote.php
But if you look at the various ways of calculating a popular vote scorecard, it's clear that, at this point, either candidate could cite evidence to support a claim to lead in this metric. I'll refer here to the various scenarios calculated at RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
So far, Obama hasn't been claiming a popular vote lead, even though he has at least as strong a claim to it as Clinton does. It seems to me there are (or have been) a couple good reasons for not doing so:
1. To do so could be seen as an endorsement of popular vote counts as a legitimate metric in the nomination process
2. To do so could be seen as antagonizing Clinton and trying to diminish her attempts to "save face" as the primary season comes to a close, and some think room should be left her for a "graceful exit"
But, at the same time, once Tuesday night arrives and the primary contests are over, there also seem to be reasonable arguments for Obama pushing back a little bit on this issue:
1. It likely would increase the perception that Obama has clinched (or will clinch) the nomination without any ambiguity about the legitimacy of that nomination
2. It would, at the very least, serve as a counterargument to Clinton's claims and remind folks (the media especially) that there is more than one way to count the popular vote (again, assuming at this point that it's going to continue to be discussed at all)
I'm starting to wonder if, since Clinton's talking point on this has firmly taken hold in the media and therefore to some extent with voters, and since Clinton's claim to a popular vote lead isn't necessarily a strong one given the different methods of calculation available, maybe Obama should assert a lead in this metric during his speech on Tuesday. (I'm imagining a single mention to put it out there, not a dissertation that makes it seem like he's paying it an excess of credence.)
So, anyway, I'm wondering what others think about this. Again, I'm not trying to reignite a general discussion here on the relevance of popular vote as a metric on principle, but instead a discussion of how Obama should approach the issue and the perceptions surrounding it as they exist today, in the context of the realities and, yes, spin currently informing media discussion of the topic.
