Why is The West in Afghanistan?
What are Western soldiers doing in Afghanistan? Is it to "reconstruct" the country as some of our leaders keep telling us? Is it to root out Bin Laden? Does it matter still? Is it in preparation for the impending takeover of Pakistan by the Taliban? Is it to act as a potential shield given the tensions between the neighbouring countries of Pakistan and India and their WMDs?
Listening to recent pronouncements from our leaders, one wonders.
First President Barack Obama admitted to the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) in a recent interview that a "win" in Afghanistan (I am paraphrasing here) meant preventing the country from becoming a launching pad for attacks on the US and its allies. That is a very scaled down version of the lofty goal of George W. Bush which was among other things transplanting democracy to the Land of Burqas and Poppies.
Then, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, speaking to Fareed Zakaria of CNN said: "Frankly, we are not going to ever defeat the insurgency! " Now that is as blunt as anybody can get. Then there are the increasingly reluctant European allies who view this mission as similar to that other doomed one in Iraq.
So why is the West in Afghanistan given all these parameters?
I will venture some explanations here although as a word of caution, I don't accept these as valid reasons for stationing thousands of troops in a foreign country. I simply think this is what is guiding our leaders' decisions. So here goes...
I think first there is the WMD factor. India and Pakistan are at loggerheads over Kashmir and other recent entanglements including the Mumbai attacks. Pakistan is increasingly shaky given the military's power over the executive branch and the Intelligence services' links to insurgent groups. So since the worse case scenario of this situation is either a nuclear Pakistan leaking secrets to insurgents or a nuclear Pakistan going after a nuclear India, the West deeems it necessary to be present and ready to intervene. Here's why this does not work however: preventing any conflict between these two countries is a matter of diplomacy. There is no military deterence for nuclear armed enemies. The presence of foreign troops in either of these countries has in the past only served to rally the population againts the foreigners viewed as "invaders".
2- The perenial "let's get them there so we don't have to fight them here" argument: The Taliban is based in Afghanistan & Pakistan. Al Qaeda and other affiliate terror groups are also based in the Middle-East. So if they were to be fought and destroyed as units there, they will cease to be a threat to the West in the West. This argument works if one assumes that the Taliban, Al Qaeda and all the other groups that hold a deep hatred of Western societies are units that once destroyed in a specific geographic location can essentially be eliminated and prevented from threatening societies anywhere. Ever. This assumption however ignores centuries of colonial adventures that prove the exact opposite. Nihilistic organizations or ones that view their mission as their people's overarching cause tend to be very loosely structured. The guiding principle being their message. Once it catches on, leaders can be killed or jailed, bases can be ransacked, the message lives on. It becomes like a virus that can only be completely destroyed if all the infected victims are located, except as more are located, more are infected. Think of the FLN in Algeria in the late 1950s and 1960s or the Mau Maus in Kenya in the 1950s or the ANC in South Africa or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in the days of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Insurgencies succeed against traditional armies because insurgents know their terrain, insurgents know the locals, insurgents know the local languages, culture and customs and more importantly because insurgents have the ability to easily disappear when the fight overpowers them and resurface depending on the conditions on the ground. The history of Afghanistan is littered with corpses of foreign generals who thought the size of their armies or the power of their weapons would allow them to conquer what they saw as mountainous savages. That is perhaps why Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper recognized that Afghans cannot be defeated in their own country.
So one has to wonder: why is Obama commiting lives and resources to Afghanistan when there are more pressing problems at home?
















"President Barack Obama told The Associated Press in an interview Thursday that he has a "very narrow definition of success when it comes to our national security interests" in the region. "And that is that al-Qaida and its affiliates cannot set up safe havens from which to attack Americans."
"I think we can measure it by whether or not they've got training camps where people are coming in and getting trained in explosives, being sent out and directed in carrying out terrorist activity," Obama said in Washington."
Al-Qaeda's safe havens are in Pakistan, are they not?
July 2, 2009 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, they are in Pakistan, which is why we have a combined Afghanistan/Pakistan strategy that includes support for Pakistani government efforts to rout the insurgency in their country. At the moment, they appear to be doing well. Conversely, from the Al Qaeda perspective, things are going very badly - their Pakistani sympathizers have lost the support of the people and are being pushed back by the military. Meanwhile, the Al Qaeda leadership has felt a need to mount an almost hysterical condemnation of President Obama in light of their perception that he is outcompeting them for the allegiance of many moderates in the Muslim world.
Total victory in these conflicts is impossible in a military sense, but failure to contain these insurgencies could endanger us severely. For the foreseeable future, we will live in a world with smoldering threats that we must keep from exploding into infernos. It's daunting, and there is no closure, but it's also vitally necessary.
July 2, 2009 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't 'attempting to rout the insurgency' in Afghanistan a little bit like attempting to 'rout' the Rethugs from the South?
The underlying susceptibility to Taliban reasoning exists in a high proportion of both Afghanistan and Pakistan so as McChrystal says minds have to be changed -- simply decapitating a hydra-headed leadership will not work.
July 3, 2009 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heading for Yemen and Somalia now that it's getting uncomfortable for them in Pakistan.
July 3, 2009 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
o al Qaeda in Afghanistan, less and less in Pak... then why the huge assault in Afghanistan?
July 3, 2009 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
that was "no al Qaeda in Afghanistan,' sorry.
July 3, 2009 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm one who believes we need to try to build up Afghanistan before we give up. I don't mean a democracy, I mean infrastructure, safety, jobs, etc. The better off we leave it the less likely it is to revert to a radical Muslim taliban regime that harbors jihadists. We also have the problem of Pakistan at the moment and the need to keep the radicals out of that country's nukes.
July 4, 2009 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not so sanguine about how well things are going in Pakistan:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/71076.html
It's "daunting," to say the least. The Taliban may be hated thoughout Pakistan, but in the tribal regions of pakistan, our policies of drone attacks- which McChrystal apparently has decided to review- have done enormous damage to our cause.
Pakistan seems to me to have been brought to the brink of collapse by virtue of its "alliance" with us. I don't know how much more of our "friendship" they will be able to survive.
July 2, 2009 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink