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Apple Announces Investigation Into Factories; Advocates Cheer

2012-02-13T23:32:34Z

Apple on Monday announced it had requested third-party audits of the working conditions at the foreign factories where its most popular products, from the iPhone to the iPad, are assembled.

The audits, which are being conducted by "socially responsible" business trade group the Fair Labor Association (FLA), began on Monday and will run through "later this Spring," according to Apple. Audits will involve inspectors visiting production facilities, reviewing documents, speaking with workers one-on-one and through anonymous forms, and giving them business cards to allow them to follow up later, in case working conditions deterioriate or punitive action is taken against workers who speak up.

The results of the first inspections -- of two Chinese factories owned by Taiwanese manufacturing company Foxconn, where the bulk of Apple's mobile devices are assembled -- will be posted in "early March" on FLA's website. By the time the investigations are completed, FLA will have looked at facilities accounting for 90 percent of Apple's production.

"We believe that workers everywhere have the right to a safe and fair work environment, which is why we've asked the FLA to independently assess the performance of our largest suppliers," said Apple CEO Tim Cook, in a statement posted on Apple's website.

]]> "We care about every worker in our worldwide supply chain," Apple said in a statement provided to TPM, pointing out that the company has conducted its own internal audits of suppliers since 2006 and published the results online. However, the new audits will go into unprecedented detail about supplier practices, and are for the first time being conducted by an independent third party.

The move was greeted with a smattering of applause and a dose of skepticism by workers rights' advocates, who had stepped up protests against the company in recent weeks, following a series of reports detailing atrocious, in some cases fatal, working conditions at Foxconn's factories in the cities Shenzhen, China and Chengdu, China respectively.

On Friday, a few activists working under the banner of two organizations staged a protest at six Apple stores around the world, including those in New York City, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. and abroad in London, UK, Sydney, Australia and Bangalore, India.

The protesters varied in number (only four showed up in New York), but all hand-delivered printed copies of an online petition with over 250,000 signatures, calling upon Apple to create "a worker protection strategy for new product releases," and to release the "NAMES of the suppliers found to have violations and WHAT those violations are, so that there is transparency around the monitoring effort."

The author of the petition is Mark Shields, a D.C.-based consultant and Apple fanatic who was devastated to learn -- from a "This American Life," episode -- about the poor working conditions at Foxconn's Chinese factories, and decided to do something about it. He also participated in the D.C. protest.

The other two organizations involved in the protest were Change.org, a website launched in 2007 to facilitate online grassroots campaigns, and SumofUs, a non-governmental organization launched in late 2011 to "hold corporations accountable for their actions and forge a new, sustainable and just path for our global economy."

"We were very excited to see Apple's announcement this morning," said Amanda Kloer, director of organizing at Change.org. "It was an unprecedented step when it came to improving transparency."

"This new announcement shows the pressure is working -- more than a quarter million people have joined our call for an ethical iPhone 5 and Apple has clearly heard us," said Taren Stinebrickner-Kauffman, Executive Director of SumOfUs.org. "But instead of actually solving the problem, they're trying to whitewash it -- hiring a business-funded group with a long track record of serving as a corporate mouthpiece. Apple consumers want real action to improve workers' lives, not more spin. We're not going to be satisfied until the workers who make our iPhones have safe and healthy working conditions."

Apple's been under increased pressure lately over reported inhumane labor practices of its manufacturers, Foxconn in particular. Foxconn had already been the focus of international media scrutiny following a string of worker suicides throughout 2010. Foxconn told Wired magazine in February 2011 that the issues had been resolved thanks to new counseling programs and other benefits for workers (not to mention the installation of new suicide safety nets), but writer Joel Johnson noted that the work was still alienating at best.

But the story continued in 2012. On January 25 New York Times is startling in recounting the numerous vivid abuses reportedly suffered by workers while putting together iPads and iPhones, including under-age labor, fatal explosions, unpaid overtime, cramped worked housing and a deceptive and dishonest management that punished workers who spoke out, among other ills.

Before that, WBEZ's popular public radio show "This American Life," detailed the conditions at the factory from a firsthand account by contributor Mike Daisey (the creator of "The Agony and The Ecstasy of Steve Jobs").

Daisey took to his personal blog on Monday to express his thoughts on Apple's latest move, applauding the company for heeding the complaints but urging it, and the entire tech industry, to go further in demanding supplier accountability.

"This [Apple] press release was sent out in prime time on a Monday," Daisey wrote, "This indicates that Apple has had a change of tactics--they have begun to hear the outrage of millions of Apple users around the world, and they are starting to understand the danger they are in. They have begun to understand that their choices may have caused irreparable harm to their brand."

However, as Daisey added: "It's vital to remember that the entire electronics industry is being put on notice--horrifying conditions are everywhere in the supply chains of all our major electronics brands, and this is the moment to exert that pressure. Samsung, Dell, Amazon, Acer, Lenovo, Motorola, Sony...the list is very, very long. Reforming how Foxconn works will help millions, but it is going to take a real coalition to change this industry."

Foxconn's other major clients include Intel, Dell, Sony, Cisco, IBM, HP and Lenovo, according to files obtained after the Foxconn website was hacked in early February (by a group called SwaggSec) in protest of the Taiwanese manufacturer's working conditions.

Apple revealed its other major suppliers for the first time in January, publishing a list of 156 companies online. It's unclear at this time just how many of those companies the new audits will reach.

Apple also noted separately to TPM that it became "first technology company admitted to the Fair Labor Association" in January.

Still, advocacy groups are still holding out for Apple to publish a "worker protection strategy" in time for the reportedly imminent launch of the iPad 3, said to be unveiled the first week of March, according to All Things D.

"We hope Apple continues to honor and expand upon its commitment, including a proactive worker protection plan," said Change.org's Kloer. "It's important that Apple takes steps as new products are rolled out, especially the iPad 3."

Day In 100 Seconds: Severely Monday

2012-02-13T22:48:48Z

Mitt Romney gave an insight in to what his general election message will be if he makes it, by branding himself as conservative so many times he had to branch out and identify as "severely conservative".

If today's cable news is any indicator, he has a winning strategy on his hands, as chattering heads across the spectrum expressed alarm and confusion over his choice of words.

Also, when people had stopped chuckling, President Obama snuck in a budget proposal for 2013. And guess what - Republicans hated it and couldn't wait to tear in to it. But who saw that coming?

]]>

Reddit Bans 'Sexual Content Featuring Minors'

2012-02-13T20:29:40Z

The social news website Reddit announced a swift policy change on Sunday night, implementing a new rule: "No suggestive or sexual content featuring minors."

While the rule itself would seem to be one that even the most libertine Internet user could support, it came with a fundamental change in Reddit's burgeoning number of user-created subsections, called "Subreddits."

Reddit is a content sharing website where users can post links to websites and/or plain text, and carry on discussions with other users below the original posts. Users are encouraged to vote on a post based on its quality, using up or down arrows. The website surfaces the most popular posts at the top of its front page. But the website also contains many distinct "Subreddits," other pages where users can post content centered around various different topics.

As Reddit's administrators wrote in a post on the website: "As of today, we have banned all subreddits that focus on sexualization of children."

Each subreddit is generally organized around a specific topic, and users can subscribe to see all the updates from a particular subreddit.

Aside from that, each subreddit acts very similarly to the parent website, allowing users to anonymously post text and links to content from around the Web. The user who creates a particular subreddit is automatically made the top moderator of that subreddit, and can remove content and ban users. Reddit's administrators communicate with moderators via private messages on the websites.

]]> As a result of the new policy, at least 29 subreddits, with titles ranging from "r/Teen_girls" to "r/preteen_boys," were immediately removed from the website, according to a Reddit user who tracked the changes.

There are over 100,000 subreddits on the website currently, Reddit's General Manager Erik Martin told TPM in a telephone interview, and the majority are not dedicated to the content that's now been banned.

"Most of them are completely appropriate for all ages," Martin said, "There are subreddits about everything from grilled cheese to NFL teams."

Indeed, among the most popular subreddits (by number of subscribers) are "r/pics" -- which is a subreddit dedicated to pictures that expressly forbids "not safe for work" (NSFW) content, and "r/aww," which is described as "Things that make you go AWW. Like puppies. And bunnies... and so on..." Sad posts, like those about "pet loss" aren't allowed, let alone anything more salacious.

But the new change also sparked lengthy, ongoing debates on Reddit itself and other social news websites, with some arguing that Reddit didn't move fast enough over complaints that some subreddits contained child pornography, or didn't go far enough, or was focused on the wrong socially repellant content that's being shared on the website.

Others argued that the changes marked a worrisome new era of editorial control by Reddit's administrators, a "slippery slope" toward censorship of the freewheeling website.

"Freedom of speech is a good thing. Common sense, tact and dignity is even better. Bravo admins. Long overdue," wrote one Reddit user.

"Common sense, tact, and dignity ARE NOT BETTER THAN FREEDOM OF SPEECH," countered another user.

"Why is a subreddit that has legal pictures of 15-17 year olds in sexually suggestive situations banned, but /r/beatingwomen is still up?" asked another user.

Still, there's no denying Reddit had been moving in this direction. The recent change in Reddit's policy came after Reddit shut down a particularly inflammatory subreddit, "r/jailbait," in September 2011.

The "r/jailbait" Reddit, which was dedicated to sharing sexually suggestive images of prepubescent and adolescent boys and girls, was one of the most popular subreddits at the time of its shutdown. But it attracted the ire of the mainstream media and the online social news space alike in late 2011, after Gawker first reported on the section, later detailing how a 14-year-old girl's photos meant for her boyfriend ended up passed widely around several subreddits and other websites.

Yet in the wake of the "r/jailbait" takedown, that type of content didn't leave Reddit entirely. In fact, it simply dispersed to a host of new, similarly-named and themed subreddits, created by users intent on exchanging links to such photos.

Outraged by the reappearance of such content and the apparent complicity of Reddit's administrators, users of the comedy website SomethingAwful.com, who had since September been protesting Reddit over the content, on Sunday called for a new, unified strike, a: "Redditbomb." In short, SomethingAwful asked all of its members to complain to local Parent Teacher Associations, politicians, churches, news outlets and the FBI about the underage sexually suggestive content on Reddit.

"Send the 'Redditbomb' to local politicians schools and churches," read one line of SomethingAwful's post, "Let them see that their children are using a website that exploits and sexualizes children, requesting that children submit their own nude photos."

"The Redditbomb came together in a few hours, and was widely disseminated to various media sources and such," explained one of the authors of the Redditbomb post on a different social news website, Metafilter. "The [Reddit] admins had their chance to fix it; they didn't just fuck up, they actively refused, doing nothing beyond what was necessary to get the spotlight off of themselves. This was the next step; if they will not voluntarily take responsibility for the fact that Reddit is used to trade child pornography, then goddammit they will be forced to take responsibility."

But as Reddit pointed out in its post announcing the new "no underage suggestive or sexual content," rule, it has never allowed child pornography on the website. In fact, Reddit doesn't allow any original content to be hosted on its website aside from text. The rest of the content that appears on the website is just thumbnail images of links to other websites, including image hosting servers. If child pornorgaphy had been posted "on Reddit," the actual file would have been located on another website.

As Reddit's administrators wrote:

In the past, we have always dealt with content that might be child pornography along strict legal lines. We follow legal guidelines and reporting procedures outlined by NCMEC. We have taken all reports of illegal content seriously, and when warranted we made reports directly to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, who works directly with the FBI. When a situation is reported to us where a child might be abused or in danger, we make that report. Beyond these clear cut cases, there is a huge area of legally grey content, and our previous policy to deal with it on a case by case basis has become unsustainable.

Reddit's Martin elaborated to TPM: "The legal definition of child pornography doesn't even cover alot of things that we've now elected on our own to ban. To imply that we've ever allowed things that are illegal is inaccurate."

However, as Martin also explained, Reddit's administrators are walking a fine line, attempting to enforce minimum standards as the website grows and gains a new audience, while allowing the users to retain the ability to post anonymous and engage in free-for-all discussion, attributes that have characterized the website since it was launched in 2005.

"We don't impose our own moral judgement on the platform," Martin said of the website's administrators, "We try to have as few rules as possible, because the more rules you have, the more you move away from being an actual platform. That's not something we're interested in doing. There's a lot of stuff on Reddit that I find personally offensive, but we don't make policy changes based on what I or anybody else finds offensive. There's lots of things on other social media websites I find offensive, too."

Speaking of which, there's still plenty of nudity and sexual content to be found on Reddit following the ban, perhaps the most notable of which is Reddit's "GoneWild" subreddit, which features a steady stream of what amounts to amateur pornography. However, that website and other related sexual content on the site is marked with a disclaimer "you must be at least eighteen to view this reddit." Martin said that these websites would remain up, but pointed out that there were other sections that where family friendly as well.

"There are a few great parenting subreddits, where parents can post videos for and of their kids and other advice" Martin told TPM, "Our goal for Reddit is to make it a platform for all different kinds of communities. We hope parents want to come...One of the things we're working on is helping people navigate to different subreddits more easily, based on their interests."

Martin said that Reddit would continue to enforce its new policy against underage suggestive and sexual content by relying on a combination of administrator and moderator vigilance, as well as letting users flag inappropriate content using the "report" button that's been available on Reddit since shortly after its inception.

However, Martin also shied away from making any broad changes to Reddit's overall simple, anonymous-friendly architecture.

Anonymity is "absolutely a cardinal value," Martin told TPM, "There are lot of things people don't post on Twitter or Facebook that they post on Reddit, because they don't want to have to deal with blowback from their employer, or have to explain it to some relative. It's just a different experience. We don't want to have it tied to your real world connections, unless that's what you want. We're never going to add Facebook connect to Reddit."

In that sense, at least, when it comes to online identity, Reddit remains closer to notorious website "4 chan" than it does Facebook.

In January, Reddit reported 2 billion pageviews, a new record for the website. The website was also the spawning grounds of the Web's mass blackout in protest against the antipiracy bills known as the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and the PROTECT IP Act (PIPA).

Santorum Leads Romney In Michigan

2012-02-13T16:25:34Z

Two new polls show former Senator Rick Santorum with real strength ahead of Michigan's February 28th Republican primary. Santorum has a six point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a new American Research Group survey of the state, and new Public Policy Polling (D) numbers show an even bigger advantage for Santorum -- fifteen points.

"Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling in a release. "But it's important to note that more than 50% of voters say they could change their minds in the next 2 weeks. There's a lot of room for this race to shift back toward Romney in the coming days."

]]> Momentum is the key word. Santorum took the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses on Tuesday of last week, two major wins for the lesser-known and lesser-funded candidate, who was expected to do well in Minnesota but came from behind in Colorado. Santorum also won the non-binding Missouri primary last Tuesday, and while Romney took the Maine caucuses over the weekend, although that result remains muddy as some Maine votes have yet to be counted.

Following his wins last week, Santorum surged in national polling, moving past former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has faded since his win in the January 21 South Carolina primary. Santorum finds himself grasping the very conservative bloc from Gingrich, who was able to overtake Romney by monopolizing the right as candidates started to drop out of the race. From PPP:

Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.
Republican voters aren't just declining to vote for Gingrich at this point- they don't even like him anymore. Just 38% have a favorable opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. His numbers are inching back closer to what they were before his surge in the polls began in November.

But this is a starting position. The key will be how the next two weeks of campaigning goes in the Great Lakes State and in Arizona, the other state with a GOP primary on the 28th. As PPP pollster Tom Jensen tweeted, "Much of Santorum's support still built on personal popularity -- 67/23 fav in MI -- millions might change that," meaning that Romney's campaign and allied super PACs ability to attack Santorum on TV will be a major, major factor. And he may have to fall back on negative ads to ensure a victory in the state he grew up in and where his father was governor.

"Michigan is perceived as a state where Romney really has a home field advantage, but only 26% of primary voters actually consider him to be a Michigander while 62% do not," PPP wrote in its analysis. "Only 39% have a favorable opinion of George Romney with a 46% plurality having no opinion about him. Romney really doesn't have some great reservoir of goodwill in Michigan to fall back on."

The current TPM Poll Average shows Santorum opening up a lead in the state.

The PPP poll used 404 automated interviews with likely Michigan Republican primary voters conducted between February 10th and 12th. It has a sampling error of 4.9 percent.

Today On The Trail: February 13, 2012

2012-02-13T12:51:23Z

The pace of the presidential campaign is slowing as we wait for the next primaries at the end of the month. Here are ten things you need to know today.

New Michigan poll will likely show Santorum ahead: Public Policy Polling is releasing its Michigan poll later on Monday. On Twitter, they previewed that they are expecting Santorum to be ahead by 10 to 15 points. Santorum has been hinting that he thinks he can win Michigan, which is Romney territory, though PPP downplayed the importance of a lead still two weeks before the Michigan primary on February 28.
Did Mitt Romney really win Maine?: Probably, but Ron Paul's campaign is crying foul because one county wasn't included in the final results. Romney was declared the winner by just 194 votes even though Washington County's caucus was postponed due to a snow storm. Still, as the New York Times's Nate Silver explains, the odds of Paul overtaking Romney from just that county are slim.
George Soros undecided on how he will support Obama: On CNN on Sunday, billionaire George Soros said he was still deciding whether or not to start a super PAC to support President Obama's reelection. Soros stressed he is always transparent about how he uses his money, "so whatever I decide, I will state what I'm deciding."
Obama releases budget Monday: The White House's proposed 10-year budget to be released Monday is a political document, particularly in an election year. The President will use the budget to push for a progressive alternative to the GOP's budget, including tax reforms that enshrine the "Buffett Rule."
Gingrich campaign strapped for cash: Newt Gingrich will spend the next two days in California, largely to raise money for his struggling campaign. Gingrich has eased up on campaigning recently to focus on raising money.
Perry tried to raise money for Gingrich: A New York Times story Monday mentions that Rick Perry, who endorsed Newt Gingrich, recently made appeals to his former fundraisers on Gingrich's behalf. On a conference call with his 'bundlers,' Perry asked them to give to Gingrich.
Obama campaign launches 'Truth Team': The Obama campaign announced an initiative Monday morning called the Truth Team that will "promote the President's achievements, respond to attacks on his record and hold the eventual Republican nominee accountable." The announcement says they anticipate attack ads from the GOP nominee that will distort the facts.
Obama's ratings go positive: The TPM Poll Average shows President Obama's approval going positive for the first time since June 2011. Obama has been on a steady upward trend for months.
Santorum under increased scrutiny: Rick Santorum's rise to #2 in the fluid GOP race means the media are asking more questions. On Sunday, he faced several questions about a passage in his book which attacks "radical feminists" for hurting the family.
Democrat in Nevada Senate race runs against Republicans' social agenda: Rep. Shelley Berkeley of Nevada, who is running to unseat Sen. Dean Heller, is using Republicans' social agenda against him. At an event in Reno Monday, Berkeley will appear with a woman who is at-risk for breast cancer to discuss why "Republicans like Dean Heller" should stop their "radical social agenda that attacks women and focus on job creation."

Republican Enthusiasm Gap Could Spell Trouble For Party In November

2012-02-13T11:02:00Z

It's now clear that questions about former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's inevitability as the GOP nominee are real. Not that there remain many plausible ways to see how he doesn't ultimately get the nod -- but Republicans are truly getting dragged into this thing kicking and screaming.

And in the end, even if the very conservative Tea Party faction of the party does (very grudgingly) accept him, it could dampen the party's ability to get energized and organized when it comes November.

"There's no doubt that turnout is low. That's evidence of a lack of connection there," said Dr. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College in an interview with TPM. "There's an anti-Obama sentiment out there and a strong Tea Party sentiment. But they haven't found a home. Romney has no provided that energy to the GOP."

]]> The question of turnout reflects a more general theme about the race. Iowa and New Hampshire saw increases in Republican turnout in the first caucus and primary -- but they were slight. South Carolina has been the outlier so far -- with an increase of nearly 150 thousand voters from 2008. But Florida saw a big drop off, turnout down around 275 thousand, and the numbers for Nevada were even worse -- Silver State GOPer's went from 70 thousand caucus attendees in 2012 to 44 thousand in 2012.

For some analysts there was a clear connection -- in the states Romney did well, Republicans aren't exactly pumped. But that could change when Romney, despite the recent bumps in the road to the nomination, finally wraps up the nomination, right?

"I think the lack of enthusiasm among Republicans is partially about Romney, but more broadly a reflection of their discontent with the field as a whole," said Public Policy Polling (D) pollster Tom Jensen in an email to TPM. In addition to PPP, Pew numbers from early January found the same trend. "We did a national poll last week that found only 47% of GOP voters were satisfied with their choice of candidates, while 41% wished someone else would get into the race. That compares to 73% of Democrats who said they were happy to have Obama as their candidate."

"Republican voters aren't ready to run through a wall for any of these candidates, in contrast to the way Democrats felt about Clinton and Obama in 2008," he went on. "That may change once they have a nominee and the focus shifts to beating Obama, but for now Democrats are more excited for the fall."

Theoretically, it would be quite a challenge to dampen Republican spirits to the point that they could lose the edge on enthusiasm heading into November of 2012 -- but the last few weeks suggest it could happen. The economy has ticked up bringing the President's approval along with it, something Miringoff said is "More of a motivator if the approval rating is tanking -- it's not a great strategy if the worst is behind us." The GOP primary process is getting more negative and disruptive, continuing on even though there's a candidate with the most money and organization, not to mention the support of several well-funded super PACs. And Obama himself has made a successful pivot to jobs and the economy, coupling it with foreign policy successes that provide a supporting argument on his competency as President.

It is more likely that Republicans will rally around Romney or whomever is the candidate -- the smart bet is the anti-Obama sentiment will be a major motivator after Americans suffered through a three year recession. But will that be enough to elect a bland or flawed GOP nominee? This is where Miringoff says the GOP may run in trouble when the height of the campaign comes in the fall.

"You do want to energize your base," he said. "If in September and October there's a lot of frustration with independents, who to turn off the campaign because they aren't satisfied with the candidates, it may become a base election. Obama' recent decisions certainly seem to show he understands that."

Long Time Coming: Obama's Approval Rating Goes Positive

2012-02-13T10:37:00Z

It was a long road back, but President Obama is now back in positive territory in our TPM Poll Average.

The shift comes on the heels of a completed Iraq withdrawal, a legislative win on the payroll tax cut before Christmas, and perhaps most importantly, good economic numbers in January and early February. The President's numbers have jumped in the last few days in both Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls as well as individual national polls.

This isn't the first time that Obama has been in positive territory in the last calendar year. But the other periods of sustained approval were triggered by individual events -- the President's rating went over water after his response to the shooting of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), and continued as the first events of the Arab Spring transpired. After his rating went into negative territory during late February of 2011, it peaked again after he announced a successful strike against Osama bin Laden. Then it trailed off again and fell deeply when Congress and the White House fought viciously over raising the debt ceiling.

]]> Since the early days of the debt fight in early June, Obama has been underwater, hitting a low of around 42.6 percent approval to 52 percent disapproval in early August. It was then the President started toward a slow recovery, based on a pivot to jobs and economy. He proposed a jobs package that didn't put a dent in Congress's intransigence, but helped him make a pitch to the American people. As you can see in the chart below, things steadily improved as the Republican presidential nomination process heated up, and as the economy showed signs of improving. Here's the chart, since January 1st, 2011.

National approval rating, President Barack Obama

The number finally went positive with the release of Saturday's Gallup tracking poll. Things could change tomorrow. But the general trend is more than clear -- as the economy moves up and stubbornness in Congress continues, President Obama's numbers look up.

What Are The Rules If The GOP Contest Goes To Convention?

2012-02-13T10:36:00Z

It's the scenario every political reporter, and every West Wing fan, wants to see for real: a brokered convention. And after a week in which the GOP's presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney sucked up three defeats, two CPAC polling wins, and a muddy apparent victory in Maine, people are talking about the prospect once again.

Take Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). "It could very well go to the convention," he told CNN at CPAC Thursday.

Two questions arise: could the delegate-allocating process really not be resolved by the time the party meets for its convention in Tampa? And what are the rules for how things play out if it does?

]]> A legitimate contested convention is still unlikely, but it's not impossible if Santorum keeps up his strength in the Midwest, Gingrich keeps winning the South, Ron Paul keeps winning his consistent minority share of delegates, and Mitt Romney can't rally the party behind him. While the rules governing each state's actual delegate selection methods are complex and varied, The Washington Examiner's Phillip Klein has a pretty broad rundown of how Romney's strongest states alone may not be enough to put him over the 1,144 delegate mark needed to secure a majority. Real Clear Politics also has a more detailed dive into just which states and demographics might play a role in keeping the process going to Tampa. Others are more skeptical: Ed Kilgore, a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, notes that the delegate rules still favor Romney if he can keep winning a weak plurality in states.

The next question is just what happens if they get there. For months, Republican pundits speculated (or hoped) that a late entrant to the race might rescue the party from having to rally behind a disappointing frontrunner. Rick Perry was the only one of these candidates to take up the task and his campaign imploded within weeks. Other big names like governors Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels as well as House GOP Budget Chair Paul Ryan all declined to run despite efforts by prominent Republicans to draft them into the race.

While it's way too late for any of those candidates to get on the ballot in enough states to win, they could potentially be nominated from the floor of the Republican convention. According to the RNC rules adopted in 2008, a plurality of delegates from five states need to declare their support for a candidate in order to bring them up for a vote on the nomination.

The next question is whether enough delegates would go along with an arrangement like this to make it work. While many delegates are "bound" by state rules to vote for a specific candidate based on their showing in a primary, caucus, or convention, these delegates are usually released under the same rules if the contest goes on after several ballots. Other states, like Alabama, can unbind their delegates if 2/3 of the group agrees, or if the candidate "releases" them, as is the case in Mississippi. And it's not clear the whole "bound" rule can even be enforced by the states in the first place -- the RNC codes prohibit state chairs from forcing individuals to vote with the majority of their delegates.

"The truth is our rules are set up so the delegates of the convention are all independent," RNC committee member Curly Haugland of North Dakota told TPM.

So bringing in a dark horse candidate as a compromise offer isn't impossible procedurally. But in practice it may be near impossible. Political scientist Jonathan Bernstein notes that the old "brokered conventions" before the modern primary age relied on powerful party bosses, such as those from the famed Tammany Hall machine in New York, to deliver their delegates en masse to a candidate. But in the current age it's not clear there are any leaders with that kind of pull over groups of delegates, making credible negotiations more difficult to work out.

"Basically, if we ever get there, it's up for grabs and we have no idea who the delegates will be loyal to," Bernstein told TPM. "They may just be an individual case by case basis."

In addition, even if by some miracle a consensus emerges around a new candidate, their problems are severe once they accept the nomination. Without any organization ready, they'd likely have to accept limited federal funds to run their effort and then hope to cannibalize from the losing contenders immediately to create some kind of functioning campaign. President Obama, a prodigious fundraiser who will not be encumbered by these restrictions, will be able to outspend them by a huge ratio. He'll also have a strong ground game primed and ready to roll out. While conservative Super PACs might be able to help make up the spending difference on TV and radio ads, overall the Republican would be at a deep disadvantage.

Republican consultant Soren Dayton suggested that because of this, any hopeful deus ex machina candidate would have to declare their run now and start fundraising with the expectation of a brokered convention in order to compete.

"The concrete logistics are incredibly complicated, Dayton told TPM. "To compete financially, people need to start raising money now so they can pay for things like the jet the candidate and press corps fly around in. That's the discussion you have to have, and I don't see anybody doing it now."

The more realistic scenario is that Romney has to find a way to top off a delegate majority after several deadlocked ballots. One way to do this would be to recruit Republican officials who are automatically sent to the convention, the so-called "super delegates" who became a major story in the 2008 Democratic race, and make the case that you need their votes to prevent a party disaster. But even if they were sympathetic, there are fewer of them up for grabs on the Republican side -- 111 by the AP's count -- meaning they might not be enough to settle the nomination.

Another option is to get a different campaign to play kingmaker. Here is where Ron Paul could play a major factor. Not only is he racking up a loyal group of delegates, but his followers have been known to try and take over state conventions which are usually low turnout affairs, in order to select more Paul delegates than were won proportionately in the caucuses. They nearly succeeded in Nevada in 2008, long after McCain was the presumptive nominee. While these "stealth" delegates might be bound under state law to support the state winner, if the convention is deadlocked they'd be released and could bolster Paul's clout even further.

The Washington Post recently noted that Romney has gone out of his way to befriend Paul across the last two campaigns and the two seem to have a relatively warm relationship. Perhaps he could win a major platform concession from Romney in exchange for agreeing to deliver his delegates?

Again, these scenarios are unlikely to play out, but if it were to come down to it, these are the situations that the rules would permit to arise.

Image from Carsten Reisinger/ Shutterstock

Santorum Pulls A Newt: It's A 'Two-Person Race!'

2012-02-12T20:31:06Z

Rick Santorum was on a mission Sunday to portray himself as the only alternative to Mitt Romney. Making the rounds on the morning talk shows, Santorum hammered on the point that the primary is now a "two-person race" between him and Romney.

It's a strategy we've seen before. After Newt Gingrich lost Florida to Romney, he spun the results to argue that Florida cemented his role as the number two over Santorum. After South Carolina and now Florida, "it is now clear this will be a two-person race," Gingrich said.

]]> Now that he has the wind at his back, it's Santorum's turn to make the same argument. "I feel very good that this is a two-person race right now," Santorum said on Meet The Press. On CNN's State of the Union he repeated it: "We think this is a two-person race right now." Like Gingrich before, Santorum's goal is to convince the GOP base that he is now the only alternative to Mitt Romney because if GOP voters believe him, he has the chance to close ranks against Romney with the backing Newt Gingrich's supporters.

Santorum has evidence to back up his assertion. A Public Policy Polling (D) survey has Santorum leading Romney nationally by 15 points; Gingrich lags in third place. Santorum's big night on Tuesday included him stealing Colorado from Romney's column.

Santorum sought to cast off doubts about his performance in Maine as well as the CPAC straw poll by, again, bringing the narrative back to the idea of a narrowing field. "We didn't really participate in Maine at all," Santorum told George Stephanopoulos on This Week, arguing that given that fact, results there prove it's a two-man race: "You know, we ended up with 18 percent, really having not appeared up there or done anything in Maine, which was three times, you know, where the speaker was." His focus now, he says, is to compete with Romney in Michigan and Arizona which will "really make this, you know, a two-person race."

But Santorum took a few shots at Romney as well on Sunday. On CNN, Santorum dismissed the importance of Romney's win by saying that Mitt Romney bought his CPAC straw poll win by investing resources in bringing his supporters to the conference. "For years, Ron Paul's won those because he just trucks in a lot of people, pays for their ticket, and they come in and vote and then they leave," Santorum explained, "you have to talk to the Romney campaign and how many tickets they bought. We've heard all sorts of things." Santorum later backed off by saying that this was "standard procedure" for straw polls.

The Romney campaign responded to Santorum's accusation in a statement to the Huffington Post:

Rick Santorum has a history of making statements that aren't grounded in the truth. Yesterday Mitt Romney won the CPAC straw poll and won a separate nationwide survey of conservatives conducted by CPAC organizers. Also, Mitt Romney won the Maine caucuses. Conservative voters recognize that in order to change Washington, we need someone who isn't a creature of Washington.

But the fact that Santorum lost a few rounds to Romney on Saturday doesn't hurt his ability to present himself as the anti-Mitt Romney. What matters is his ability to knock out Newt Gingrich and capture the non-Romney vote. Luckily for Santorum, Newt Gingrich -- who routinely appears on several Sunday shows -- was absent Sunday and not there to defend himself.

Today On The Trail: February 12, 2012

2012-02-12T14:36:35Z

Romney wins Maine caucuses and CPAC straw poll by small margins. Here are ten things you need to know.

Sunday shows lineup: Rick Santorum and White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew will both be on NBC's Meet the Press, CNN's State of the Union, and ABC's This Week. Ron Paul will also be on This Week. Sarah Palin and Jack Lew will be on Fox News Sunday; Ron Paul, Mitch McConnell and Jack Lew will be on CBS's Face the Nation. Priorities USA Action director Bill Burton makes his Meet the Press debut as part of the round table.
Romney wins CPAC straw poll and Maine caucuses: Mitt Romney won both the CPAC straw poll and the Maine caucuses on Saturday, though neither by a wide margin. He won Maine with 39% to Ron Paul's 36%. Santorum took 18% and Gingrich took just 6% with 84% of precincts reporting. At CPAC, Romney took 38% to Santorum's 31% and Gingrich's 15%. Marco Rubio was the choice for vice president.
Maine Democratic Party says Romney had a bad night: In response to Romney's win in Maine, the state's Democratic Party chair Ben Grant argued that Romney had actually had a bad night: "Tonight was another bad night for Mitt Romney. Following a string of losses this week in Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota, the Republicans lack of enthusiasm for their front runner continued tonight in Maine - where we saw staggeringly low turnout. In 2008 Romney won Maine easily with over 50% of the vote but today he wasn't even able to break 40% despite living in the neighboring state."
Rick Santorum takes lead in national poll: Mitt Romney may have won a contest and a poll Saturday, but Rick Santorum took the lead in a national survey from Public Policy Polling (D). The survey has Santorum leading the pack by 15 points, with 38% to Romney's 23%. Gingrich has 17% and Ron Paul got 13%.
New poll shows Santorum rising in Gingrich's home state: As yet another sign that Newt Gingrich is fading, a new poll shows Santorum closing in on Gingrich in his home state of Georgia. The Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone poll of Georgia GOP voters has Gingrich ahead with 35% and Santorum with 26%.
Did Obama win the contraception controversy?: A survey of Catholics by Public Policy Polling Friday night showed Catholics approve of the presidents rule change to accomodate religiously-affiliated organizations' concerns about covering contraception 57%. Of the 34% who disapprove, 5% disapprove because they felt the change wasn't necessary. This may be good news for Obama and bad news for Romney. Respondents preferred Obama's position over Romney's opposition to any birth control coverage requirement 51% to 38% and Hispanic Catholics preferred Obama's 59% to 32%.
Bachmann campaign spokesperson joins Santorum: According to a tweet from Mark Halperin, Bachmann campaign spokesperson Alice Stewart has joined the Santorum campaign as his national press secretary.
Santorum says he can win Michigan: Mitt Romney, who grew up in Michigan and whose father was governor of the state, is the frontrunner there. But Rick Santorum said on Fox News that he thinks he can win and will make an effort to win Michigan. Santorum thinks his message about manufacturing will resonate in the struggling state.
Romney heads to Arizona on Monday: Mitt Romney will hold a get out the vote rally in Mesa, Arizona on Monday. The Arizona primary on February 28 is the next primary contest.
Santorum heads west: After blitzing three morning shows Sunday, Santorum will campaign out west. He has one event scheduled for Monday in Washington and two scheduled in Idaho Tuesday.

Day In 100 Seconds: CPAC Day Three

2012-02-12T00:18:26Z

Alas, CPAC 2012 is no more. If you skipped days one and two because you were saving yourself for the main event - Palinmania - then today is your lucky day.

The conservative faithful rose as one to salute their idol - someone who spent half a term as governor before making money riding round the country in a bus.

Amongst all that, Mitt Romney, who'd spent much of the week suffering barbs about not being a "real conservative," won the conferences two polls. Oh, and Grover Norquist spoke. Now we have to wait till CPAC 2013 to experience the joys all over again.

]]>

Mitt Romney Wins Maine Caucuses

2012-02-12T00:10:37Z

Mitt Romney received welcome news on Saturday, as he won the Maine caucuses with 39 percent of the vote. It was a welcome success for the former Massachusetts governor after he lost three presidential nominating contests earlier in the week.

]]> Out of the little more than 5,000 votes cast overall, Ron Paul came in second with 36 percent, Rick Santorum came in third with 18 percent, and Newt Gingrich trailed with 6 percent of the vote. Romney edged Paul by just under 200 votes. At stake in Maine are 21 delegates, but this particular vote doesn't actually determine who gets the delegates -- which is one reason voter turnout was so low.

Paul and Romney were the only two candidates to actively campaign in the Pine Tree State. Paul, in a defiant speech, claimed the contest could essentially be called a tie, adding that "the revolution is just beginning." He sounded confident that he will eventually win the majority of the state's delegates.

Romney made several last-minute campaign stops in Maine after speaking at the CPAC conference in Washington. Just before the Maine Republican Party announced Romney the winner, he also won the CPAC straw poll and a CPAC national poll.

A statement on the results sent out by the Romney campaign thanked voters for their support. "I'm committed to turning around America. And I'm heartened to have the support of so many good people in this great state," the email read.

CPAC Results Give Romney Some Much-Needed Breathing Room

2012-02-12T00:04:51Z

CPAC -- By slim majorities, Mitt Romney won the CPAC straw poll Saturday as well as a national poll of conservatives sponsored by the organizers of the massive conservative conference.

So does that mean Romney has rekindled his connection with conservatives after earlier losing three primaries to Rick Santorum in one night?

Well, not exactly. CPAC had its ups and downs for Romney, the man who still struggles with his conservative credentials.

]]> The surprising poll wins were certainly an up -- but it's worth remembering that while Romney beat Rick Santorum by seven points in the straw poll (which was an unscientific survey of around 3,400 attendees at the conference who likely as a group skew much younger than the real conservative electorate), he only came out two points ahead in the real, more scientific survey of 600 self-identified conservatives nationwide. In that poll, Romney earned 27% support to Santorum's 25%. And that poll was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday, so half of the questioning came before Santorum's triple wins in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado on Tuesday night.

GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who ran the poll for CPAC, confirmed that the results may not reflect the current climate for Romney.

"I will tell you that if I think that if we had conducted it Thursday and Friday instead of Tuesday and Wednesday it may have been different," he said at press conference following the conference. "Because it takes a little time for the momentum to pick up."

Fabrizio also pointed out that the national poll's sample of self-identified "conservative" voters could include Democrats and Independents, not just Republicans.

People in the hall were less than impressed with the results. Supporters of other candidates accused Romney of stacking the CPAC deck and said Romney's win here doesn't mean he's won conservatives where it counts.

Todd Zirkle, a real estate appraiser supporting Santorum, said he was surprised to see Romney win given the conservative activist bent of CPAC.

"Romney's not terrible, but he's not really a movement conservative," he said.

Zirkle added he had grown more concerned about Romney's viability in the general election since Obama began employing a more populist tone in speeches. "Obama's laying the groundwork to run against Romney with an Occupy message, but Santorum's blue collar roots frustrate that attack."

Paula Bedner from Oak Hill Virginia, a Gingrich supporter, talked up the idea of conspiracy behind the Romney win at CPAC. "I don't know whether he bought it, but he's got a lot of big financial backers," he said. Bedner continued that either Gingrich or Santorum would eventually emerge as the conservative alternative to Romney but didn't seem in any rush for that process to wrap up. "We need to let it play out," Bedner said.

Before CPAC began, American Conservative Union chair Al Cardenas (who, for the record, was a Romney supporter in 2008 but is not endorsing anyone this time around) said no one was buying up tickets the way Ron Paul had done in the past ahead of his straw poll victories in 2010 and 2011.

Santorum supporters expressed disappointment. Take Stephen Ontko from Ohio, a Santorum supporter wearing a rosary. "It did surprise and disappoint me," Ontko said, adding that he thought too many people were deciding on who they thought was most electable rather than "ideology or principles."

"Romney is vague," Ontko said. "It's hard to know what his core beliefs are."

On stage, Romney had tried to fight off that vague claim with a fiery speech that focused on what he said was his conservative record as governor of Massachusetts. But he stumbled when he called his time in Boston "severely conservative", a line that drew laughs from conservative leaders, who saw it as a pander. Democrats jumped on the line, too, suggesting it will make for a nice general election contrast.

Romney, who won CPAC in 2008 back when he was trying to solidify his role as the conservative alternative to John McCain, also took time during his visit to the conference this year to host a private session with conservative leaders. CNN reported it as "an effort to reassure Republicans who remain skeptical about his candidacy."

So, all in all, the CPAC news for Romney was decidedly mixed. The campaign didn't see it that way, however. After the results of the polling were announced, the campaign blasted them out to reporters. Team Romney pointed to this line in the Washington Times writeup of the results:

"Romney's win in both polls signals he can compete on the conservative ground that the other three candidates claim to have locked up."

But of course Romney's problem is that other candidates keep making inroads on ground he's supposed to control already, not the other way around.

Ryan J. Reilly and Benjy Sarlin contributed.

Sarah Palin Unleashes GOP Id On Worshipful CPAC Crowd

2012-02-11T23:47:05Z

Sarah Palin, surrounded by as like-minded an audience as she could hope for, delivered an eruption of conservative resentment to close CPAC on Saturday.

Hundreds of conference participants waited in line more than two hours before her speech to get into the main ballroom. A blue haired CPAC volunteer roamed the aisles searching for empty seats as private security guards paced the room and audience members waited anxiously for Palin's arrival. An elderly man wearing a red "FIRE OBAMA" hat sat near college students sporting Romney stickers.

Amid wild cheers as she took the stage, audience members joined to serenade her with a cacophonous "Happy Birthday" for her 48th that day. She proceeded with a culture war jeremiad reminiscent of her 2008 convention speech that slammed elites, liberals, and especially the city in which she delivered her speech, Washington, DC.

]]> "While America struggles, Washington prospers," she said. "While our real-estate market's crash, Washington is strong. Washington is hiring, but they are hiring for what? They do not manufacture. They do not drill. They produce nothing. The services that they provide, they increase dependency, not freedom. They do not create wealth, they take it."

Calling it "Obama's Washington," she went on to note that the city has abnormally high per-capita income in its surrounding counties and a real estate market that's weathered the economic downturn far better than the nation at large, accusing politicians of being seduced by monetary gains upon arriving.

"This is the playground of for the government rich," she said."They are hoping you work really hard to keep it going."

Even for a party that's made anti-Washington sentiment its number one talking point, It was an especially provocative passage given that two of the current GOP presidential frontrunners, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, have had post-Congress careers working for special interests in Washington.

Palin was interrupted briefly by a small group of young Occupy protestors, but their chants were almost immediately drowned out by the audience shouting "USA! USA! USA!" and "Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!" Security escorted them out within minutes and Palin returned to the speech with the crowd more energized than ever.

Palin referenced the presidential primary without mentioning any of the candidates by name, asking GOP to both keep the campaign positive and, in what could only be interpreted as a dig at nominal frontrunner Mitt Romney, lengthy.

"Competition will lead us to victory in 2012," she said. "I believe that the competition has to keep going. Let's make sure this competition brings out the best in our party. We know that the far left and their media allies cannot beat us on the issues. They will smear our record and smear our reputations. They will attack our families. Let's not do the job for them. Okay, Republicans?"

"Frankly, it was one of the best speeches I heard her give," American Conservative Union chairman Al Cardenas, the event's principle organizer, said afterwards.

In the audience, Nadine Thurman, 84, a veteran Missouri Republican official who has seen and met Palin numerous times, said she thought it was a standout moment.

"She was on today," Thurman said "It was typical Palin -- guts, godliness, genuine love for country."

The Charged Politics Of Dining At CPAC

2012-02-11T21:22:55Z

What counts as "dinner"? That can be a charged question, depending on who you're having it with.

On Friday night, the twitter feed for ProEnglish, a group that advocates only teaching classes and conducting all legislative business in English, indicated that their executive director had dined with presidential candidate Rick Santorum while at CPAC.

That director, Bob Vandervoort, has in recent days been dubbed a "white nationalist" by the Institute for Research and Education on Human Rights, who note that he was once involved with a group called the Chicagoland Friends of the American Renaissance. That group describes itself on its website as "racial-realist," and advertizes a book on racial genealogy that says, "orientals fall at one end of the spectrum, blacks at the other end, and whites in between." Mother Jones' Adam Serwer was among the liberal critics who raised an eyebrow over Vandervoort's attendance at CPAC.

TPM caught up with Vandervoort at a pub outside CPAC on Friday night. He said he had indeed eaten with Rick Santorum, and he pushed back at the "white nationalist" charge.

]]> "I've never been affiliated with any group that promotes hate or violence," he said.

Vandervoort called the idea that he was a white nationalist a "distortion" that come from "left-wing groups that are against our agenda."

As for the dinner with Santorum, the candidate's camp played down the event, telling Buzzfeed that Vandervoort was "one attendee in a much larger group of 85 people" and that the luncheon guest list was put together by fundraiser Richard Viguere.

Vandervoort said that he thinks that conservative candidates "understand that [promoting the use of English-only education and legislation] is an important issue which they need to get behind." Rep. Steve King appeared at a CPAC panel hosted by ProEnglish on Thursday.