Is Obama Underachieving? As the Numbers Tighten, So, Too, Must Our Onion Belts
Are you a poll number addict? I am. I must check the stats at www.fivethirtyeight.com and www.pollster.com a dozen times a day, just to see if there has been any kind of update in polling or analysis. If you haven't checked out Nate Silver's site at 538, do so, he's the wunderkind of new polling models this year, so much so, that even Keith Olbermann is having him on his show.
One of my favorite graphics at Nate's site is the "Win Percentage" pie-chart graphic in the upper left corner of the page. That percentage has slowly been rising for weeks or months now, but OH MY GOD! IT WENT DOWN 0.4% TODAY! I'm freaking out and losing it! Talk me down! (as Rachel Maddow would say). How can this be happening? Obama's numbers are only supposed to go up, Up, UP! Right?
Oh wait, calm down, this is what is supposed to happen at this point. The last debate is over, there are only twenty days left until the election, and the undecideds are finally getting off the fence (one hopes). Some of them will go to McCain, some will go to Obama, and the point spread is, yes it's true, going to tighten some.
So what about these dire pronouncements by some in the media and on the right, that Obama is underachieving, that given the current conditions, his numbers should be much higher? Why isn't he "closing the deal" as I saw one article title ask the other day?
Here's the conclusion from an article by someone much smarter than I am (which is why I stole his title), that anwers that question, and points out that Obama's numbers are exactly where they should be at this point in the race:
Despite the fact that pundits have claimed that Obama is not performing as well as he should be given the economic and political conditions, the models used by political scientists to predict election outcomes--models based on these very conditions--tell a different story. Obama is currently out-pacing the predictions made by some models and lagging only a few percentage points behind others. But his support does not stray more than 4.2% away from any of these predictions. Thus, there isn't much support here for the notion that Obama is greatly underachieving in this election. At least not at this point in the race.
So there you have it. Make sure you read the article. And make sure you tighten your onion belt, this pressure cooker we are currently travelling in is going to start popping like one of those deep-diving submarines you see in the movies, but this is exactly as it is supposed to be.
Agreed. Nate Silver has been saying that the polls will tighten. That will mean that some polls, due to sample variability, will likely show statistical ties in the days to come. We need to be aware that those national polls don't mean the sky is falling. The numbers that matter are the electoral vote numbers.
That said, this is no time to coast. Its not too late to donate--indeed, money is still needed. Its not too late to talk to friends and family. We need to stay vigilant!
October 17, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. But it's not just that we really shouldn't be paying attention to polls, things will shift etc. We really need to stay active or get even more active. We've got all of these maniac robocalls and sick mailers to debunk.
I am canvassing in CO for the first time this weekend. Before this just phone calls and online stuff.
Senator Obama said complacency is our biggest enemy now. We've got to RUN to the end of the race! He has also said a few times... the McCain camp has FOX News and their machine, Rove, etc.
and 'I have you!'... He has US!!
The people on the ground working for Senator Obama really care and are going out of their way... risking, willing to take risks, talking to people even if it is awkward or uncomfortable.
We deserve President Barack Obama! America deserves President Barack Obama!
We can make that a reality!
October 18, 2008 3:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the post Astral, and thanks for the Opus avatar. I entered the grieving process months ago with the first foreshadowing that the strip was coming to an end. I will miss him terribly.
With respect to the polls moving, a friend of my sister's switched sides to McCain recently because he bought into the lie that small business owners will pay higher taxes. I sicked my dad on him to straighten him out. Hopefully it worked.
We have to use all our resources. If we don't have the information to bring people who've been swayed by misinformation back to reality, let's make sure we put them in contact with someone who does. Every vote counts!
October 18, 2008 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama ground game in FL is excellent. Dem voters I'm visiting show no signs of sitting this out, that's for sure. We start early voting Monday, so the polls NOW are what matter. In my county, you can vote at any public library for the next two weeks regardless of your designed precinct. So canvassers next week take their folks right to the voting booths.
October 18, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel your pain Astral, for I too am battling poll addiction. If one were to make a graph of my mood over the past weeks (months?), it would be eerily similar to a graph tracking Obama's daily poll numbers of the same period.
That said, will the numbers tighten? I'd say not necessarily; obviously there is no reason to believe that a larger number of the fence-sitters will go McCain's way.
But! Let me add my voice to those here who are warning about the dangers of complacency: this thing t'aint over yet.
Robert
October 18, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the real test of whether the cool, laid-back, unconfrontational approach to this election---I call it the "Kumbaya strategy"---will actually work, against the fascist blitzkrieg and the on-going voter suppression activity. Personally I doubt it will. Senator Obama should have put Senator Clinton on the ticket (much as I dislike her and her husband's politics.) Then I think they would be 10 to 15 points ahead, which is where they should be and where they WOULD be if not for the corporate lying mass media. If the professional politicians in the Democratic party don't realize now how "deregulation" and also the end of the Fairness Doctrine have hamstrung them, then they are hopelessly stupid.
October 18, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just finished a canvass in the Tampa Bay area. We knocked on every door in our assigned territory and discovered one undecided voter, a libertarian couple, and two hard core McCain families. All the others who answered the door were for Obama. They appreciated that we came by. All in all a pleasant and productive canvassing effort. Definitely worth the time.
October 18, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink