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Colin Powell to Give Obama a "Soft" Endorsement Tomorrow?


Here's the latest on what has to be the weekend's most anticipated story:

Sources close to the retired four-star general and American icon cautioned that Powell's support for Obama over John McCain might stop short of a formal endorsement when he's interviewed on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday.

Given Powell's cautious nature, he might decide to make his endorsement of Obama implied, rather than explicit. Even so, a well-informed source told the Daily News:

"After Sunday people aren't going to have any doubt who he's voting for."

Two other colleagues Powell has consulted in recent weeks told The News that while Powell admires McCain, he's roubled that the GOP candidate has surrounded himself with hardline national security advisers.

"McCain has too many neocons working for him," said one Republican source familiar with Powell's thinking. 

***

"He wishes McCain could give him a reason to vote for him, but he hasn't yet," a Powell associate told The News.

The entire post can be read at Jonathan Martin's blog at Politco.com 

 


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On the other hand Steve Clemons reports

This morning, long term Colin Powell aide and former State Department Chief of Staff Lawrence Wilkerson sent me a note seeming to downgrade the chance that General Powell might endorse Barack Obama (or John McCain).

Wilkerson wrote:

Steve:

By the way, this is how I see today's TV appearance.

I see CLP making comments about the financial situation, about the national security and foreign policy issues of the day, and, most importantly, about the need not to return to 1968 (RFK and MLK, Jr. were assassinated, as you'll recall) and to remain calm and appeal to the better angels of our nature -- and not be saying things like "Kill him" or "He's a terrorist" about the candidates.

But no endorsement. The endorsement part is being played up so the maximum amount of people will watch what he believes is the greater message about tolerance, etc...

lw

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Good catch! And then there's this from the same link:

Wilkerson always said the same thing: with Powell, it's all about the 60-percent rule--that is, the general manner in which he makes big decisions. Wilkerson explains:

Powell has a continuum he uses. It's based on time and information. Most people make mistakes because on this time/information continuum, they either decide too fast, with too little information, and thus make a bad decision, or they wait to get perfect information and then are a day late, and a dollar short--too late with their decision to influence events. Powell believes the optimum point is 60 percent. That is, if you have roughly 60 percent of the available information--and, in a perfect coincidence--are at about 60 percent of the elapsed time--that is when you are most apt to make the best decision. In the case of this political campaign this process translates into Powell's having at least a 3-2 chance of being on the winning side were he to endorse, and that he does it early enough to still influence the result.

Voila! Obama has opened a wide enough lead in the polls that he has become a betting favorite. A 3-to-2 favorite? Maybe. And if you start the clock at the conclusion of the GOP convention, the general election hit the 60-percent point last Sunday.

By Wilkerson's explanation, the circumstances are indeed in place for a Powell endorsement this weekend.


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So Powell is basically being a pussy. Typical.

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I take this back!

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It's fun to watch the expectations game play out. In my opinion, it doesn't sound right that Powell is weighing in at this point just to say "you kids play nice." He's never been one to seek the spotlight. It seems that if there was one thing he would want to do, it would be to make up for that "spot" on his record, and help support the Obama effort to pull us out of this mess.

Of course, that's just wishful thinking on my part.

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Maybe wishful thinking but this is the best I have seen. Powell is not high on my list for numerous long held reasons(pre-Bush) but this is an opportune time to redeem some of his prior reputation. Another will not come along anytime soon, and is could be argued he can have some role in the wider foreign policy debate in any future administration. A soft or hard announcement would achieve this end; nonetheless, am not a big fan but he does have relationships and credibility in many countries that many lack. Politically, this is not a bad approach for all sides.

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Right: Powell isn't one to seek the spotlight. That's why he refused to appear, and knowingly lie, at the UN in order to grease the skids for the Bushit criminal enterprise's illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq.

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To which "spot" on his record do you refer? His lying to the electorate, the Congress, and the UN and world, even knowing he was throwing his troops away for a lie and a lost cause?

Or the fact that he was the first to investigate -- and cover up -- the My Lai massacre?

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I'd like to see him endorse Obama tomorrow. As much to restore some credibility to his own name, as to help Obama.

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Whether Powell endorses or not, it's been weird to see columnists on the right (Novak, Kristol) advancing the notion that Powell would endorse Obama. Strange too that this is a decision subject to this 60% criterion, interesting as that criterion is. When is/was this supposedly crucial 60% mark? This summer, when Novak reported it? Or now?

The 60% Doctrine, btw, is a nice post-facto justification for the UN appearance.

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astral66

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