From the Reno Gazette-Journal, as reported by The Field:

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama succeeded in driving more supporters to the Nevada state convention than his opponent U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, who had won the state in the Jan. 19 caucuses. Obama essentially reversed Clinton’s lead from the caucuses, capturing 55 percent of the state delegates to Clinton’s 45 percent.

The heavy turnout earned Obama one more delegate to the national convention, than previously expected based on the caucus results.

The final tally: Obama won 14 national delegates and Clinton won 11 national delegates. Under the caucus results, Obama was expected to win 13 national delegates to Clinton’s 12. Although Clinton won the caucuses, Obama out-performed her in rural Nevada and Washoe County.

From Politico.com:

Mike Allen reports:

The schedule still says 'TBA.' But barring a last-minute change, Sen. Obama plans to be in IOWA on Tuesday night when he clinches a majority of available pledged delegates. This is a red state he's hoping to turn blue, so the intended message is that he's getting to work on the general – NOT taking a victory lap. Political Geographer Jonathan Martin says the Hawkeye State appears to be Obama's BEST chance to flip a state that went for President Bush last time. In 2004, Iowa went Bush 50, Kerry 49. In 2000, it went Gore 49, Bush 48, Nader 2.

Iowa does feel like a long time ago.

If you need a laugh today, here it is. I am so jealous of the Youtube talent that is out there. Check out the "Bill O'Reilly's Producer" video:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/16/135957/656/640/517007

and make sure you scroll down to the Comments for the "Dance Remix" (warning, it's Bill-O explicit!), or just click here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5j2YDq6FkVE

With "Bitter" and "Sweet(ie)" under our onion belts, it's inevitable that the next video clip of an Obama gaffe will delight us with another of what scientists describe as the five basic tastes: bitter, salty, sour, sweet, and umami (described as savoury, meaty, or brothy).

Until then, here's your Daily Delegate Update:

Superdelegates:
Rep. Pete Stark of California

Pledged Delegates:
NBC NEWS has adjusted the pledged delegate split out of North Carolina, resulting in two more for Obama and two less for Clinton. Obama gets a net of 19 delegates, a 67-48 split, out of the Tar Heel State

A delegate for John Edwards says she’ll switch her support to Barack Obama when she gets to the national convention in August. Arlene Prather-O’Kane, who is from Cedar Falls, told me yesterday she’s sticking with Edwards for the moment, but plans to switch at the DNC in in Denver.

John McCain appears to be sticking to his pledge to run a clean campaign (somewhat clean, as we have seen), and this evening it was announced that another campaign advisor has been removed, this time over their association to a 527 group.

Politico.com has the story in it's article McCain adviser ousted in conflict uproar:

John McCain's campaign asked a prominent Republican consultant, Craig Shirley, to leave his official campaign role Thursday after a Politico inquiry about Shirley's dual role consulting for the campaign and for an independent "527" group opposing the Democratic presidential candidates. The campaign also released a new conflict of interest policy barring such arrangements.

Shirley, a conservative public relations veteran, doubled as a consultant to McCain and to the group Stop Her Now, a 527 group barred from coordinating its activities with presidential campaigns. He is not currently on the McCain campaign’s payroll, but would also step down from his role on McCain’s Virginia Leadership Team, a McCain spokesman, Brian Rogers, said.

"If you're working for a 527 involved in the presidential race, you won't have a named role in our campaign,” said Rogers.

I'm not sure what having an "un-named role" would constitute, but I'm guessing that as in the past, the 527s will do their work, McCain will say "Don't do that", and then will turn his back while the dirty work continues, as we saw in North Carolina.

The article also contains a summary of an animated 527 spot by Craig Shirley's group featuring Obama and Rev. Wright in the Oval Office:

One recent anti-Obama cartoon features an Oval Office exchange between President Obama and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, whom Obama summons as his “spiritual advisor.”

“How may I serve you my brother?” asks the animated Wright.

“Is love black and white?” asks the fictional Obama.

“No – it is black,” shrieks Wright.

“Really?” asks Obama.

“Goddam right,” the minister replies.

"That's what I'd thought you'd say," says a reassured Obama.

The article goes on to detail some of the grey areas of FEC laws regarding conflict-of-interest that McCain's campaign hopes to avoid with Shirley's dismissal.

Read the entire article here.

Tonight on MSNBC's Hardball, Chris Matthews was discussing the recent comments made by Bush in Israel about the "appeasement" of terrorists. His guests were Mark Green of Air America Radio (a major HRC supporter) and right wing radio host and mouthpiece Kevin James.
 
James started going off on the appeasement issue and Neville Chamberlain was brought up as an example. Turns out Kevin James doesn't know any history past his own GOP talking points. Say what you will about Chris Matthews (and I'll probably agree with you), but Chris nails this guy unlike anything I've seen on the MSM, ever.

Watch the sparks fly, about one minute into the clip:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24643905#24655385

So far:

Super Delegates:

Obama +4
Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA)
Larry Cohen, the president of the Communication Workers of America and a super-delegate from D.C.
Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA)
Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA)

Pledged Delegates:

Obama +7 from Edwards' Delegates.  
Reportedly the breakdown is
(1) - NH
(6) - SC

Daniel Boan, Christine Brennan-Bond, Robert Groce, Susan Smith, Mike Evatt and Lauren Bilton are the South Carolina Edwards Pledged Delegates confirmed by CNN as supporting Obama.

Pittsburgh – The United Steelworkers today issued the following statement of endorsement of Senator Barack Obama for President:

"When the presidential primary contests began last year, our Union felt strongly that because of Senator John Edwards’s deep commitment to working people and because of our shared beliefs, he deserved our strong endorsement.  His belief that unfair trade policies must be changed, his commitment to pass the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) to restore workers’ rights to freely choose workplace representation, and his proposal for universal health care were widely shared by our members.

"Today, by virtue of a unanimous vote of our International Executive Board, we find ourselves once again in agreement with Senator Edwards, this time with his decision last evening to endorse Senator Barack Obama.  And thus today, the United Steelworkers enthusiastically endorses Senator Barack Obama to be the next President of the United States.

Here's the first Edwards delegate to switch to Obama:

PORTSMOUTH, N.H.—A New Hampshire Democratic Party delegate who had supported John Edwards says he will support Barack Obama, now that Edwards has endorsed his former political rival for the party's presidential nominee.

Joshua Denton of Portsmouth, 26, an Iraq war veteran, says he thinks that both Obama and Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Republican nominee John McCain. He thinks that Obama is the change the country needs, along with having the best chance of beating McCain in the general election.

"My fear with Hillary was just because she is who she is -- for better or worse -- she would sink, not just lose the presidency," but Democrats in Congress, Denton said Wednesday.

read the rest here

Isn't it past time that we all unite and turn our attention to the real battle? Keith Olbermann thinks so, and has offered up a preview of his Special Comment for tonight's Countdown on MSNBC at 8pm.

excerpt:

  "Mr. President," he was asked, "you haven't been golfing in recent years. Is that related to Iraq?
   "Yes," began perhaps the most startling reply of this nightmarish blight on our lives as Americans -- on our history.
   "It really is. I don't want some mom whose son may have recently died to see the Commander-in-Chief playing golf. I feel I owe it to the families to be as -- to be in solidarity as best as I can with them. And  I think playing golf during a war just sends the wrong signal."
   Golf, Sir?
   Golf sends the wrong signal to the grieving families of our men and women butchered in Iraq?
   Do you think these families, Mr. Bush - their lives blighted forever -- care about you playing golf?
   Do you think, Sir, they care about you?
   You, Mr. Bush, let their sons and daughters be killed.
   Sir, to show your solidarity with them - you gave up golf?
   Sir, to show your solidarity with them - you didn't give up your pursuit of this insurance-scam, profiteering, morally and financially bankrupting war.
   Sir, to show your solidarity with them - you didn't even give up talking about Iraq - a subject about which you have incessantly proved without pause or backwards glance, that you may literally be the least informed person in the world?
   Sir, to show your solidarity with them, you didn't give up... your
   4,000 dead Americans and your response... was to stop playing golf!
   Golf.
   Not "gulf" - golf.

ABC News' Kate Snow, Raelyn Johnson, Sunlen Miller, and Rick Klein Report: Former Sen. John Edwards is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy Wednesday evening, in a dramatic attempt by the Obama campaign to answer concerns regarding Obama's appeal to working-class voters, several senior Democratic sources tell ABC News.

The Obama campaign confirms Edwards will endorse Obama at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan Wednesday. The event was originally scheduled to start at 7pmET, but was moved up to 6:20pmET, presumably to have the announcement make the evening news.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/edwards-to-endo.html

What does Mark Halperin know that we don't?

Hillary Clinton's advisers continue to insist that the candidate's prospects are very much alive, but the press isn't buying it. Exhibit A: There are two press buses waiting at the hotel here for Clinton's trip to her victory rally in West Virginia, but the entire press contingent doesn't quite fill one. It isn't until the entourage arrives at Dulles Airport that Clinton aides learn that the second bus is still idling, empty, at the hotel.

Dana Milbank's Washington Sketch column "This is and Ex-Candidate" takes a cold hard look at the state of the HRC campaign by, among other things, comparing it to the dead parrot sketch from Monty Python. But it is his observation of the loss of interest by the press, and the lack of cheering supporters at the airport that really drive the point home:

2:57 p.m., Yeager Airport, Charleston, W.Va.: A steep descent brings Clinton's plane to Charleston's hilltop airport. After an appropriate wait, she steps from the plane and pretends to wave to a crowd of supporters; in fact, she is waving to 10 photographers underneath the airplane's wing. She pretends to spot an old friend in the crowd, points and gives another wave; in fact, she is waving at an aide she had been talking with on the plane minutes earlier.

Empty buses and photo-ops of the candidate waving and pointing at a crowd that isn't there. Not only is there no one behind the curtain, the curtain itself has been removed and has been sent off to a storage unit in Foggy Bottom.

Parrots seem to be the theme of the day. Anyone seen the Obama Parrot clip?

Two more Superdelegates came out late Tuesday to endorse Obama: 

Awais Khaleel, College Democrats
Lauren Wolfe, College Democrats (MI not seated)

Only one counts at this point, as Wolfe is from Michigan and won't be seated until that mess is sorted out.

So that's a plus 5 on the Super count for Obama Tuesday.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/13/233315/650/418/515195

Well, I spent the day out and enjoying some fantastic weather. I'm surprised to be checking in and to see my previous post up on the Rec list, so thanks to those that found it pertinent.

It appears that Obama has a big problem in Appalachia. I wrote about this back before the PA primary (western PA runs along the foothills of the Allegheny Range of the Appalachian Mountains), and it appears that the sentiments that run through West Virginia are pretty much the same as those I've experienced first hand here in PA.

I just read Josh's excellent piece on the front page, and I'm glad he printed the maps of the Appalachian region. It's a pretty clear overlay when you compare the area where Hillary received over 65% of the vote, and the region that the Appalachian Mts. run through.

This is a region that has known poverty and isolation for a long time. The industries that used to exist here are long gone, the educational systems are some of the worst in the country, and the decay that has set in is older and worse than probably anywhere else in the country.

Josh also posted these stats on the front page:

RACE, GENDER AS VOTING FACTORS
One in four Clinton voters and about one in 10 Obama voters said race was an important factor in their vote.
About one in five Clinton voters said gender was an important factor in their vote. Nearly as many Obama voters said that.

25% of Hillary's supporters in WV openly admit that race played a factor in their decision. One has to imagine that the number is actually a bit higher, as not everyone is as honest about this.

I many ways, it's Obama's "bitter" observation in a nutshell. There is a lot of fear and mistrust that is born of extreme poverty. Just check out the CNN or NY Times county maps of WV to see just how low the median income is in most of the WV counties.

The big question now, of course, is what can the Democrats and presumptive nominee Obama do to help the people of Appalachia? The GOP still owns the guns and religion demographic, regardless of how well Hillary did among Democrats in WV tonight.

Before you start celebrating Hillary's win in West Virginia tonight, perhaps you should read this post by a West Virginia voter today on Daily Kos, and ask yourself what it is that you are celebrating.

wvtrailerdweller writes:

I went with my son, his first election,and my retired neighbors.  I know my son and I voted for Obama, and I believe they both did, also, because they mentioned NOT voting for Hillary.  There are two polling places in our tiny town, and people were at both, with the line actually growing as we were waiting at ours.  There was talk that they'd never seen so many people for a primary.

I don't take that as too positive a sign, as everyone was over 60.  I heard one man say that as a republican he had no one to vote for, so either he voted democratic, or was registered independent, not sure if you can cross parties, but independents had their pick of ballots.  

We went into the oldest restaurant in town for breakfast, and I was trying to listen to the conversations, all among retired locals.  They were joking about voting for Obama before they started hammering on the same old "talking points"(he's muslim, he's embarrassed by his horrible wife can you imagine her in the white house..., he doesn't face the flag...etc.) I didn't wonder if so many of them are riled by how well he's doing, that's what is driving turnout. As one old farmer got visibly upset I could see how frustrated he was by "those stupid, stupid people" as he described, well, us, I guess.

Oddly, we have a good sized gay community, and while many are weekenders, quite a few live up here, so I remain hopeful!  

As to the racism issue, while eating our neighbor told us he had come there several years ago with men who were working on constructing a house, one of whom was AA, and he told the others they wouldn't be served as they walked in the door.  The others including my neighbor were all from No. VA and thought he was being paranoid.  Sure enough, no one ever came to their table.  My neighbor's daughter raised hell before they left (and she's great at that!) but I was surprised at how recent that was AND that he was willing to return :(

I have say, both my neighbors said it was their first primary and they felt the need because they wanted to be a part of history being made, which I have to say I felt too.  First time I ever got choked up when filling in a bubble.(We had a choice of electronic touchscreen or paper) It's a beautiful spring day, and there's excitement in the air!

One of the most formidable number crunchers over at Daily Kos is PsiFighter37. His district by district analysis is now up and he gives the breakdown for each WV congressional district, as well as the best- and worst-case scenarios for Obama tomorrow. There are plenty of maps and graphics, so make sure you check out the link.

Best-case scenario for Obama
Simply put, Obama has to outperform by a healthy margin to narrow the delegate loss he faces in the state. However, if he is able to perform better-than-expected in WV-02 to earn a 3-3 split (similar to how NC-11 turned out) and can get more than 25% in WV-03 to only lose 2 delegates, he will pick up 2 more delegates. Additionally, if the activist base really turns out and boosts Obama above 35.6% of the vote, he will net an extra at-large delegate. This would lead to Obama only netting a loss of 6 delegates, 17-11

Worst-case scenario for Obama
It's hard to do worse than I've already projected, but WV-01 could possibly go to Clinton for a 5-1 split if she breaks 75%. She will probably get within 5% - I can see her scoring in the low-70% range easily - but if she couldn't do it on a consistent basis in the bordering counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania, I don't see it happening here. That's really the only area of improvement I see, and that would lead to a 21-7 delegate split in favor of Clinton. As I noted above, netting an extra at-large delegate with more than 78.57% of the vote is extremely likely. One has to consider that Obama's polling - which puts him somewhere in the mid- to high-20% range - is his floor. If his supporters in West Virginia stuck with him through the tough times he faced the past few weeks, I can't see him losing support at the polls.

So according to PsiFighter37's breakdown (and he has been spot-on in his analysis this election), Obama is looking at 17-11 split with a 6 delegate loss under the best conditions, or 21-7 split with a 14 delegate loss under the worst conditions tomorrow.

Considering that Obama has picked up 25 delegates in the past week, even a 14 delegate loss tomorrow  isn't going to hurt his numbers much. The media spin cycle will no doubt be negative, but by the time we get to Oregon, this will all be forgotten anyway.

Go Obama!

Two Superdelegates have come out for Obama so far today:

Rep. Tom Allen of Maine
Dolly Strazar of Hawaii.

Obama has now surpassed Hillary in the Superdelegate count. Strazar marks Obama's net 23rd delegate since last week. West Virginia votes tomorrow and brings 27 pledged delegates to the count. With the past week's superdelegate endorsements, Obama has already erased any overall delegate pick-up Hillary may achieve tomorrow.

<blockquote>*** UPDATE *** Another super to announce
Idaho Democratic Party Chairman Keith Roark, currently uncommitted, will endorse a presidential candidate at a press conference in Boise at about 2 p.m. ET, the state party confirms. The party was mum on who he’d endorse, but at least one Idaho blog’s speculation is he’d be for Obama. Obama won the state’s caucus overwhelmingly, 80%-17%. Obama netted 12 delegates in the state, which the Obama campaign famously touted as a larger gain than Clinton got out of New Jersey. Clinton netted 11 out of the Garden State. </blockquote>

Richard Wolfe and Evan Thomas weigh in on the Obama and McCain campaigns' strategy for taking each other on this summer. From the upcoming May 19, 2008 issue of Newsweek:

Sit Back, Relax, Get Ready to Rumble 

Great late-night reading for all of you insomniacs!

More West Virginians weigh in on Obama, from today's Financial Times article, Democratic Country Keeps Its Distance from Obama.

Leonard Simpson is a lifelong Democrat. But given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain in November, the 67-year-old retired coalminer would vote Republican. “I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife’s an atheist,” said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.

“If he is the nominee, the Democrats have no chance of winning West Virginia,” said Missy Endicott, a 40- year-old school administrator. “He doesn’t understand ordinary Americans.”

“The American people want a president who loves their country as much as they do,” said Whit Ayres, a Rep­ub­lican strategist.

Josh Fry, a 24-year-old ambulance driver from Williamson, insisted he was not racist but said he would feel more comfortable with Mr McCain, the 71-year-old Vietnam war hero, in the White House. “I want someone who is a full-blooded American as president,” he said.

The article goes on to point out the difficulties that Obama faces in West Virginia:

- No Democrat has been elected to the White House without carrying West Virginia since 1916
- West Virginia has the lowest college graduation rate in the US
- West Virginia has the second lowest median household income in the US
- West Virginia has one of the highest proportions of white residents, at 96 per cent
- West Virginia is hostile territory for Mr Obama because it has few of the African-Americans and affluent, college-educated whites who provide his strongest support.

Read the entire article here.

Doesn't John McCain have anyone do background checks on his aides? Meet Doug Davenport:

 

Doug Davenport, the regional campaign manager for the mid-Atlantic states, founded the DCI Group's lobbying practice and oversaw the contract with Myanmar in 2002.

"Doug has tendered his resignation and we have accepted it," Jill Hazelbaker, McCain's communications director, wrote in a e-mail.

He joins former DCI Group CEO Doug Goodyear, who resigned yesterday from the post of convention CEO after Newsweek reported that DCI was paid more than $300,000 to represent Myanmar's ruling junta.

read more:
A Second McCain Aide Resigns

So that makes three members of McCain's campaign who have been dismissed or have resigned in the past two weeks after questionable lobbying ties have been exposed.

The previous two figures, Doug Goodyear and Ali Jawad, are detailed in my previous post:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/what-do-hezbollah-and-the-myan.php

Any pilot or sailor knows that "losing one's bearings" means that you are lost and headed in the wrong direction.

Today's score:

Obama: 1    Hillary: 0

CHICAGO, IL – Today, Young Democrats of America Board Member and Former California Young Democrats President Crystal Strait pledged to vote for Barack Obama for president. Strait is a superdelegate and Democratic National Committee Member from California. Strait is the 276th superdelegate to endorse Obama. Obama is 155 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.

read more:
http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-obama-endorsement/