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Pakistan reaching a mini-civil war state


I was struck by the photo of the Peshawar five-star hotel bombing in the print edition of today's New York Times, it looked very similar to the results of Tim McVeigh's work in Oklahoma City. It appears there isn't the exact same photo available with the online version of the story--this one comes close, but is more cropped and fuzzy, doesn't give the same impact.

The accompanying report,

Militants Strike Five-Star Hotel in Pakistan, Killing 11, by Ismail Khan and Salman Masood from Peshawar,

pretty much makes it clear how huge the bomb was and that greater human damage was only avoided by the parking lot barriers:

The blast, powerful enough to leave a crater 6 feet deep and 15 feet wide, collapsed the western wing of the hotel...The bombing Tuesday was the seventh in Peshawar since the military operation began.

It was by far the largest -- using an estimated 1,000 pounds of explosives, the police said -- making it the most spectacular against a Western target in Pakistan since the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in the capital, Islamabad, last September, which left more than 50 dead.

The Pearl Continental is set back from a main road that is also the location of the Provincial Assembly and the High Court, and its parking lot is a gauntlet of zigzagging barriers to prevent just such an attack.

But the attackers employed tactics similar to those used in the assault on May 27 against the headquarters of the Pakistani intelligence service in Lahore, which fell short of its intended target but killed 26 people at a nearby emergency-response unit.

The last paragraph is quite striking:

"We are the front line," said Farahnaz Ispahani, the media advisor to President Asif Ali Zardari. "This is really a fight for our way of life. This is a fight for Pakistan."

The Times has summarized some very interesting updates to the story in its news blog this morning--

Report: U.S. Planned to Buy Bombed Peshawar Hotel, by Robert Mackey:

As a colleague here at The Times points out, the Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan, which was partly destroyed on Tuesday by a massive car bomb, is well known locally as a meeting point for not just wealthy Pakistanis, foreign aid workers and journalists but also intelligence agents...

Given that reputation, the hotel was an obvious target for militants -- even before a report surfaced two weeks ago that the United States was planning to buy the hotel as part of a plan to greatly expand its diplomatic presence in the city. As the Press Trust of India reported on Tuesday, the Pearl Continental is currently owned by Sadruddin Hashwani, who also owns the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, which was bombed last September, resulting in more than 50 deaths.

According to a report by Saeed Shah and Warren P. Strobel of McClatchy Newspapers, the hotel was apparently at the center of an American plan to establish a long-term presence in Peshawar...

Also of serious note is this second report in today's print version--
Villagers Take on Taliban After Bombing in Pakistan,
by Sabrina Tavernise and Irfan Ashraf in Peshawar:

....More than a thousand villagers from the district of Dir have been fighting Taliban militants since Friday, when a Taliban suicide bomber detonated his payload during prayer time at a mosque, killing at least 30 villagers....

The uprising is not the first time that Pakistanis have formed their own militias to stand up to the Taliban, and previous efforts have often collapsed largely because the government and military did not come to their aid.

But the latest attempt is significant, revealing the determination of the people of Dir to keep out both the Taliban and the military and to prevent their area from turning into another war zone, like the nearby Swat Valley, where millions have fled fighting.

The rebellion, locals said, gives the government a chance to demonstrate to the Pakistani people that it is serious in supporting them this time....

Fayaz Ahmad Khan Toru, an official with the government of North-West Frontier Province, said that officials knew that the government response was being closely watched, and that they were working with local people. "Failure is not an option," he said.

Syed Muhammad, 30, a civil servant from the village of Mian Dog in the valley, said that without the military's help, the uprising would fail. The militants were dug in too deep for the local militia to dislodge them on its own with just guns.

But he expressed cautious optimism that the local people would not be ignored, as they had been in most other operations, and that the military, now pressing ahead with its campaign against the Taliban, might be learning.

"I think that the military has now realized that the locals should be involved in these operations," he said. "Without the support of the local people they cannot wipe out the militants."

Meanwhile, Defense Sec. Gates was reporting to the U.S. Senate on Aghanistan "more hopeful than he had been in a long time," noting that the price for wheat there was almost the same as for opium, and Adm. Mike Mullen expressed a U.S. priority to reduce civilian casulaties.


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Interesting side note from the NYT article --

"As the Press Trust of India reported on Tuesday, the Pearl Continental is currently owned by Sadruddin Hashwani, who also owns the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, which was bombed last September, resulting in more than 50 deaths."

Could just be coincidence (how many hotel-owning "tycoons" are there in Pak?).


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good post.

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Whipple has been predicting trouble in Pakistan for quite a while.

Currently, the most serious situations appear to be in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Both are nations with populations in excess of 150 million people that are ensnared in devastating power shortages that have destroyed their export industries. Both are facing water and agricultural problems that threaten their food supplies. Liquid fuels are running short and reductions in exports threaten their ability to import oil and natural gas. It was recently revealed that the Saudis already are forgiving $6 billion of Pakistan's $12 billion annual oil import bill.

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3301:the-peak-oil-crisis-the-blackouts-spread

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Thanks, it is quite interesting to see the story put in the economic context that way rather than the standard geopolitical one. From the day I saw Bush's "pre-emptive doctrine" announced (in fall, cause you don't sell new ideas in summer, as I recall) as a headline in the New York Times, I have always wondered the "what if,", what if a President Gore had done another kind of pre-emptive, pumping the once-outrageous sounding cost of an Iraq invasion (remember when we all freaked at the $60 billion budget for it or whatever it was? Hah, a pittance) into revving Pakistan's education situation and business economy at the same time. I remember thinking at the time, that is what we should be doing, that that had the best bet of working against Al Qaeda et. al...If a lowly citizen news reader like me had figured out that the ultimate source of the problem was there in 2003, others surely did as well. Instead they wandered off into this fantasy about somehow a Shia and Kurd Iraq of happy democratic capitalists was going to make the naughty Sunni contingent so jealous they would get to work trying to compete and behave, or something......

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The last quoted article re the revolt against the Taliban is a perfect opportunity for those practicing/advocating COIN to do their thing except for the fact that Pakistan would have to invite our participation.

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Who says they aren't? (Remember Charlie Wilson. Just because everyone official says they couldn't, wouldn't, not possible, the players wouldn't allow it without WWIII being started or whatever, doesn't mean much.) I recall seeing "administration officials" anonymice back a month or two implying they had just about had it with Zardari dilly dallying. A few months before that, they had just about had it with Karzai dilly dallying, but then all of a sudden it seemed they no longer were. Certainly the government of Pakistan is virtually never transparent about what is really going on, sometimes it seems it's almost like non-transparency is a specialty there, honed to a fine skill, you've got to be good at it just to be a low-level bureaucrat there...

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Speaking of Pakistan's economic and social situation:

US envoy cites growing refugee crisis in Pakistan

By ROBERT BURNS – 10 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Pakistan faces a "major crisis" in managing damage and dislocation from its U.S.-endorsed military offensive against the Taliban, the Obama administration's special envoy to the region said Wednesday.

Richard Holbrooke told reporters at the State Department that he visited refugee areas last week, met with Pakistani government officials and returned convinced that the real test is not so much Pakistan's military success as the way in which it handles reconstruction and resettlement of internal refugees.

Of the refugee camps he said, "It's not a good sight, but it has not yet reached the level of a situation where people are dying of cholera," he said. "There's no cholera epidemic yet. But the rainy season hasn't begun.".....

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Oops, the above was supposed to be a reply to Donal @ June 10, 2009 6:21.

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Lally, also see

Obama letter handed to India amid consultations on Pakistan 19 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AFP)

...."This administration believes that what happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan is of vital interest to our national security, and ...that India is a country that we must keep in closest consultation with," Holbrooke said....

It's that famous "vital interest to our national security" line that can cover a lot of various and sundry activities.

This Obma letter story also suggests some tit-for-tat talk going on. That presumes they are thinking they might have some tit for some tat. I.E., if you've got the Pakistani government finally fed up enough with jihadis that they don't want their help on the Kashmir front, either. Or, something along the lines of, if you'll just be patient, India, we're pretty sure that....

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aa.

In my (very) limited understanding, COIN ops are usually highly visible as the practicioners go through highly ritualized meetings with the appropriate elders, etc. Could we be funneling arms to the villagers? Sure, but COIN depends on building trust with the locals and visibility is a part of the process....the hearts and minds stuff.

Tactically, COIN isn't Charlie Wilson's War by another name. That was low profile and COIN (the way we did it in Iraq) was high-profile; the thought being that as one group was seen as gaining benefits by their association with US, others in the region would be more inclined to cooperate, too.

On second thought, perhaps the Dir situation is still too volatile and raw for COIN to work at this point in time. Another factor mitigating against employing that strategy is that the locals would have no reason to embrace the representatives of the American Entity, either.

Nevermind.

(By the time COIN was being implemented in Iraq, the locals had plenty of familiarity with US and the Brits. My impression is that implementing COIN in Afghanistan has been really problematic due to the nature of the place; in terms of it's fractious factional history, remoteness, terrain etc.)

Just in case you missed it, here's another possible/probable consequence of the Peshawar bombing:

"First a bit of background. When the Pakistani government began its offensive against Taliban militants in the Swat Valley last month, it warned civilians to get out of the way. And it's not hard to see why. The military has used heavy artillery, air fire, and other military tactics to "flush out" the bad guys. It's unclear if they've gotten any of the Taliban's top leadership, but what they have gotten is a homegrown refugee crisis. "After Rwanda, this is the largest movement of people [in the world]," International Crisis Group analyst Samina Ahmed told me.

What's unique about this refugee crisis is that 80 to 90 percent are not living in the camps the UNHCR is desperately trying to erect. They're living in the homes of strangers. Ahmed, who was recently in the area, recounts 30 to 40 people staying in a single room. These hosts have opened their homes for now, but their resources won't last forever. Ahmed believes that it will be at least a full year -- after the winter passes -- that the displaced will be able to return home. So, the hosts are going to need a lot of help caring for their unexpected guests.

Here's where the Peshawar bombing comes into play. The Pearl Continental housed many U.N. agencies -- including UNHCR. And just as the Islamabad bombings shut down the capital city this year, the Peshawar blast risks the same. If international staffs (understandably) go on high alert, they won't be going out to the displaced camps and host family homes. They won't be overseeing an aid operation on the scale that the situation demands -- or at best, they will have to do so indirectly."
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/09/an_other_consequence_of_the_peshawar_bombing

I guess it all comes down to who helps the locals with what they need and aside from the Pakistan government, Iran is more likely to be able to play that role as they have a history of knowing how to function effectively in the region and even beyond as the Lebanon example illustrates.

BTW, US knuckleheaded antipathy to Iran caused US to refuse to ally with the Lion of Pansir, Ahmed Shah Masood, who was the only man with a prayer of defeating the Taliban and uniting Afghanistan. He was a renowned warrior leader and a small "d" democrat but his links to Iran caused US to shun him.

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Kurds and Pashtuns: Kurdistan and Pashtunistan

How should we characterize conflicts/struggles/insurgencies where the ethnic grouping has been denied nation status by long-dead, pen-wielding, map-drawing European diplomats whose interests were none of theirs?

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Or to ask the question differently: Who says these Pashtuns are Pakistanis? And why would the average Urdu-speaking Pakistani care one whit for what goes on in the Tribal Areas or the Northwest Frontier?

N.B. A few million Pashtuns are hardly going to overrun 150+ million Pakistanis.

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150+ million Pakistanis

How did these Baluchs, Kashmiris, Punjabis, etc. suddenly forge a national identity, to go along with their country, the ancient homeland of the fiercely conhesive P(unjabi)A(fghan)K(ashmiri) people, Pakistan, land of the Paks. Visit while it still exists...

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Now that's something to meditate on
What a mess.
If borders were removed, what would happen?

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Yeah, except I often get the feeling that an awful lot of Pakistanis have bought into Pakistani nationalism hook, link and sinker. It's too late, too many fell in love the idea too much? The majority aren't especially crowing proud of their NW provinces backwoods hicks, but they are "their" backwoods hicks. Though I myself have sometimes pushed the equivalence, I've got to admit I don't think this is really the same thing as with the Kurds, there are too many Pashtuns who don't want to be Pashtunistanis but would rather be Afghanis or Pakistanis. Maybe it has to do with competing with India, which really has become strong nation-state-wise, I dunno?

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AA,to really make it unfathomable, don't forget that Pakistan has been a narco-state at least since 1990 - I've read that heroin processing and trafficking may account for thirty or forty percent of Pakistan's national economy. This makes analysis very difficult since it is all "off the books." Political analysis perhaps even more difficult, since motive might on the surface appear to be political, but beneath may be competition between various drug organizations.

The best source I've found on this is the South Asia Analyst Group in India:

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/

Type in "Pakistan heroin" on their search page. You should probably start with the oldest year, 1998.

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It's an honor to have tempted you to comment, nb. :-) Thanks for the recommend.

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Art appraisers always tempt me - I might get over my block and start painting again. I've been too quite in the cafe because the newer formats baffle me. I get totally lost trying to chase down comments and responses. I yearn for the good old days.

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New York Times's Thursday report is up
Bombing Challenges Aid to Pakistan Refugees, by Tavernise and Masood, with added input from 3 other reporters,

they quote the UN that (contrary to previous reports) they have not abandoned aid efforts even though workers were temporarily pulled out of Peshawar to Islamabad because so many aid people were victims.

Also Richard Holbrooke confirmed that the State Dept. was looking into buying the hotel.

The picture with this article shows the extent of the damage better than the one that is in my original post.

Note there are two Pakistani anonymice at work in the article:

Two Pakistani security officials said that prior to Tuesday security agencies had been tipped by a source to watch for attacks by the type of small truck used in the hotel bombing. Security agencies had warned high-profile sites to step up security, among them the Pearl Continental, the Pakistani security officials said. They asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Officials also said that the Toyota car that entered the security gate first was unrelated to the truck, and that all the attackers were in the truck. The driver of the car, from an upscale area in Peshawar, called Hayatabad, was wounded in the blast.


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Sigh, I screw up link code again. Here it is:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/11/world/asia/11pstan.html

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more hopeful than he had been in a long time," noting that the price for wheat there was almost the same as for opium

Yessiree, nothing says progress like the price of food pushing an addictive substance...

The shots of Pakistan look like the shots of Havana in Godfather II, when they're carving up the cake inside and Fidel is carving up the Guardia Civilia outside...

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You so funny. I see the analogy, but who is playing what role is not clear, who are the ones who are still thinking they have power but are in the process of losing it? At least to me--if you know, Richard Holbrooke mebbe wants to talk with you! (If that's the case, you shouldn't bother with such underlings, demand that if you are going to talk, the lowest you'll settle for is Hillary.)

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the ones who are still thinking they have power but are in the process of losing it?

I don't know their names (but they end a lot in Sayed, Khan, and Shah); lots of them went to school either in England or the anglophone schools that go back to the days of the Raj.-

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the lowest you'll settle for is Hillary

True fact. When I went to Afghanistan, Idries Shah sent me to Karzai's (uncle, I think? Sheikh Abd'ul Ahad)--anyway, the bandits on the Kandahar road, the bedbugs in the Hotel Jami (Herat) and the stomach bug my (then) wife caught intervened.

So, I'm holding out for Wali Karzai--I hear he has the primo dope hookup.

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CIA chief says bin Laden in Pakistan

Reuters - ‎Jun 11, 2009‎

* Sources in Pakistan providing info on al Qaeda targets

* Says al Qaeda still most serious security threat to U.S.

WASHINGTON, June 11 (Reuters) - CIA Director Leon Panetta said on Thursday the U.S. intelligence agency believes al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan and hopes joint operations with Pakistani forces will find him.

Asked whether he was sure that bin Laden was in Pakistan, Panetta told reporters: "The last information we had, that's still the case....

Finding bin Laden is "one of our major priorities," Panetta said. "One of our hopes is that the Pakistanis move in militarily, combined with our operations, we may be able to have a better chance" to find the al Qaeda leader, he said.

Panetta said al Qaeda "remains the most serious security threat" to the United States and its leaders, particularly in Pakistan, continue to plot against America....

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN11512545


Pakistan Pounds Militant Hideouts Following Mosque Attacks

Voice of America - ‎6 hours ago‎

Pakistani warplanes pounded militant hideouts throughout the northwest Saturday, following two suicide bombings on mosques that killed at least seven people, including a prominent cleric.

Military officials said at least seven militants were killed in the airstrikes targeting the South Waziristan tribal region, where Taliban-linked militant leader Baitullah Mehsud is based.

A spokesman for Mehsud claimed responsibility for Friday's attacks on mosques in the eastern city of Lahore and the northwestern town of Nowshera. The Taliban also said it carried out Tuesday's bombing of Peshawar's Pearl Continental hotel....

In a televised address hours after the attacks, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said the Taliban is trying to take over the country, and he pledged to fight the militancy "to the end."...

US officials say Pakistan is planning a new offensive in South Waziristan, which borders Afghanistan. But Pakistan's government has yet to formally announce....

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-06-13-voa5.cfm

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Pakistan's Zardari vows to fight 'until the end'

By Masroor Gilani – 22 hours ago

ISLAMABAD (AFP) — President Asif Ali Zardari said Saturday that Pakistan was battling for its "sovereignty" a day after scores of people were killed amid an escalating offensive against the Taliban.

Zardari said Pakistan would fight "until the end," as US defence officials in Washington confirmed that Islamabad was stepping up its operations against militants in the country's troubled northwest.

"We are fighting a war for our sovereignty," Zardari said in a television address. "We will continue this war until the end, and we will win it at any cost.

"The Taliban are the enemies of innocent people. They want to terrorise the people and to take control of the country's institutions."....

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hgT9cJkly37B7HSVwKxCKS9_qVFg

Zardari hikes pay for front-line soldiers

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, June 13 (UPI) -- Pakistan is building an army garrison in the Swat Valley and raising the pay of soldiers fighting militants in Malakand, President Asif Ali Zardari said.

Soldiers in Malakand are to receive an increase equivalent to one month's pay, Zardari said in an address Friday.....

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/06/13/Zardari-hikes-pay-for-front-line-soldiers/UPI-42931244907618/

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The Obama adminstration was apparently bothered so much by how this New York Times Friday front page story turned out:

Some with Qaeda Leave Pakistan for New Havens/'

A Steady Trickle Seen/
U.S. Effort Cited, but So Is Call in Somalia and Yemen to Jihad

by Eric Schmit and David E. Sanger

American officials say they are seeing evidence that a handful of Al Qaeda leaders are leaving Pakistan’s tribal areas for new havens.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/12/world/12terror.html

that they responded with clarifications from anonmymice and others almost immediately via

Voice of America, June 12:

Out of Pakistan By Al Pessin Washington 12 June 2009


A senior U.S. defense official said Friday there is no significant movement of senior al-Qaida leadership out of their safe haven in northwestern Pakistan. The official was responding to a story in Friday's New York Times.

The Times story says dozens of al-Qaida fighters and a small number of the terrorist group's leaders are moving to Somalia and Yemen. But the senior defense official who spoke Friday on condition of anonymity said while there may be some movement, and certainly connections between al-Qaida leaders and groups in Somalia and Yemen, he has "seen no evidence" of any senior leaders making the move. The official said it is very difficult for senior al-Qaida leaders to move out of their safe havens without getting caught or killed.

That official and others who spoke to reporters Friday on condition of anonymity also said they expect Pakistan to expand its current offensive against militant groups to include North and South Waziristan, in the Afghanistan border region. But the officials said the Pakistani move is mainly targeting local groups that threaten Pakistan's government.

They say there is some overlap with the groups that provide suicide bombers and other help to Afghan insurgents. But they said Pakistan's primary goals involve its own national security priorities, not attacks on al-Qaida leadership or Afghan insurgents.

The officials also said the Pakistani Army operation against militants in the Swat Valley, and the expected operation in the west, involve more troops than Pakistan has brought to the fight in previous offensives. The U.S. officials also say there is more public support for the operation, in the wake of Pakistani Taliban abuses in Swat. And they say Pakistan is using its Frontier Corps to better effect, giving it follow-up duties rather than putting it into combat.

On Thursday, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East and Central Asia, General David Petraeus, said in the Swat operation...

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-06-12-voa47.cfm

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Pakistan Budget Deficit to Expand

Wall Street Journal - ‎5 hours ago‎

By CR JAYACHANDRAN and HARIS ZAMIR ISLAMABAD--Pakistan Saturday said its fiscal deficit will widen to as much as 4.9% of gross domestic product next fiscal ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124490199795812559.html

and last but not least, a tidbit of "teh Pakistani nationalism" :-)

Pakistan's Gul stuns Kiwis with first Twenty20 five-wicket haul

The Canadian Press - ‎13 minutes ago‎

LONDON, — Umar Gul became the first bowler to take five wickets in a Twenty20 international as Pakistan scuttled New Zealand for 99 in the Twenty20 World ...

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jMvXb_OB9Y7-nxWDdLsLBnrZOeSg


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Countrywide strike to mourn Dr Naeemi's death

by APP @ Dawn, June 13

Markets and business centers across Sindh and Punjab were closed in a call from political parties for a day of mourning.

State funeral for late Sarfaraz Naeemi

By Muhammad Faisal Ali for Dawn, June 14

His body was presented a guard of honour before the funeral which was attended by thousands of his followers.

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The Lahore blast and Taliban ideology;
Dr. Naeemi's death shifts the fight against militancy to ideological battlegrounds.

by Huma Yusuf @ Dawn.com's blog, June 12

Excerpt, my highlighting:

....one aspect of the fight against the Taliban has almost been forgotten in recent months – its ideological underpinnings.

The suicide bombing at the Jamia Naeemia mosque in Lahore on Friday, in which the head cleric Dr Sarfraz Naeemi lost his life, is an urgent reminder that the fight against the Taliban is nothing less than a battle for the future of Islam and how the religion is to be practiced and interpreted in Pakistan.

Events in recent months – such as the fiasco of the passage of the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation and increased focus on the Taliban’s funding sources – have made many Pakistanis cynical about their motives. In some quarters, the militants are viewed as money- and power-hungry warlords, hell-bent on claiming territory and control (and revelling in the wealth that Swat’s emerald mines have to offer). But Friday’s blast confirms that Pakistan’s militants are primarily on a broad ideological mission to impose, consolidate and spread their preferred interpretation of Islam.

Dr. Naeemi was not targeted by suicide bombers because he could offer them cash, territory, new recruits, communications technology or weapons. He was targeted because he opposed the Taliban ideology, consistently and brazenly...

PAF swings into action to avenge Naeemi’s murder

By for "Our Correspondents" for Dawn June 13

....The main target of the air strikes was in Makeen area, the headquarters of Baitullah Mehsud. Local people said five planes took part in the attack that started at around 8am.

The bombing flattened the building of a higher secondary school in Shakerkot area of Makeen. Militants had occupied the building and used it for their activities....

Houses of three tribesmen — Shah Jehan Mehsud, Wali Malik Shai and Shah Khan Abdulai — were also bombed.

The sources said that the grandson of Khagai Abdulai was injured while the daughter-in-law of Shapool Mehsud was killed. Three foreigners were also injured in the attack.

Security officials said that seven militants were killed and five others injured in the fresh offensive in Makeen.

However, local militants denied the claim and said that one girl was killed and three children and a watchman were injured.

There were unconfirmed reports that the head of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Tahir Yaldeshiv, had been injured in the air strike. The houses of the tribesmen bombed were occupied by foreign militants, according to the sources.

On Friday night, officials said, security forces pounded suspected locations in Zara Serwakai and killed five militants. Troops also fired artillery from Jandola Fort hitting targets in Serwakai. Taliban sources confirmed they had suffered casualties, but did not give figures.

Meanwhile....

In Bajaur, six militants were killed and several others injured when air and ground forces carried out joint strikes against militants’ strongholds.

A seminary was also hit and militants’ bodies were seen lying in the nearby fields. Troops launched attacks in Charmang area on Friday.

According to sources, ground forces entered Tangi, the centre of Charmang, on Saturday. Reinforcements were on way to the area.


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As per Obama's preference, apparently,

US House drops A.Q. Khan, India from aid bill

By Anwar Iqbal for Dawn, June 14

WASHINGTON: The US House of Representatives has dropped an explicit demand for access to Dr A.Q. Khan and another for preventing terrorist attacks against India as conditions in a legislation that triples US aid to Pakistan.
In Washington’s diplomatic circles, the gesture is seen as a major concession from a house that has placed other severe conditions in the aid to Pakistan act approved on Thursday.

In April, when the two conditions were first reported in the media, Pakistan took a strong stance and said it felt ‘humiliated’ by the language of the bill implicating the country in nuclear proliferation and cross-border terrorism.

Pakistan was particularly sensitive about the clause that required it to improve relations with India as a pre-condition for US assistance, pointing out that it amounted to micromanaging a sovereign nation’s foreign policy.

The Obama administration backed Islamabad on this issue and succeeded in removing the two conditions from the bill.

But pro-Indian lawmakers tried to revive the conditions on Thursday when the House finally approved the legislation. Congressman Gary Ackerman — one of the most outspoken supporters of India in the US Congress — tried also to restrict Pakistan from using the US aid to buy jets and other weapons to confront India.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee, however, had already reworked the language to say that Islamabad would have to provide ‘access to Pakistani nationals’ connected to proliferation networks and omitted the part that named Dr Khan.

The reworked bill also required Pakistan to....

This would indicate to me that he has chosen to prioritize helping with the current situation in Pakistan over his interest in intel about nuclear proliferation, unless the administration feels that Khan is of no further value as far as that is concerned.

Meanwhile, Richard Holbrooke was doing some interesting complaining last week:

Supporters in the Gulf Funding Militants: Holbrooke

By Baqir Sajjad Syed for Dawn, June 6

ISLAMABAD: The United States said on Friday that Afghan drug trade was not a major source of funding for militancy and extremism in Pakistan. The financing came from extremists’ patrons in Gulf countries — an aspect now being scrutinised, the statement added.

It also dismissed the presence of American weapons with the Taliban as a routine feature of guerilla warfare.

‘Private individuals who support extremists bring money in through illegal means … hawala system and the area focussed is the Gulf Cooperation Council countries,’ US Special Envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke told a media briefing at the American Embassy.

Mr Holbrooke, who had earlier met President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Chief of the Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and ISI chief Lt-Gen Shuja Pasha, said it was ‘a very big issue’ and ‘the most troubling aspect of the entire situation.’

The US, he said, had started looking into the source of financing for the extremists and would be devoting more time to investigate it. He admitted that not much work was done in the past to explore this aspect.

However, he said the much-touted drug trade was not the main financing source for extremism. ‘Even if drug trade stops it won’t have any significant impact.’....

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aa.

Here's another source for your Pakistan archives. Andrew Exum aka "Abu Muqawama" is a go-to COIN guy who frequently posts on and links to articles related to the military aspects of dealing with the place.

This is his latest:

"For a moment there, I was excited by the possibility that the Pakistani Army might consolidate its gains in the Swat Valley and try a little of the "hold" and "build" phases of counterinsurgency. It now seems, though, as if the Pakistani Army is going to push into southern Waziristan in an effort to capture or kill Baitullah Mehsud, the rebel Islamist leader. This following sentence was, actually, the scariest thing I read all yesterday:

Baitullah is the root cause of all the problems. He is the axis of evil," [Provincial Gov. Owais] Ghani told reporters.

Now why does that scare me? Well, first off, convincing one's self that your only problem is with this one guy -- and that once you kill him, everything will be alright -- has been proven to be a losing strategy time and time again in struggles against violent non-state actors. Whether one is talking about Israeli targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders or U.S. efforts to capture or kill Saddam Hussein and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, we have seen that killing key leadership might only have a negligible effect on the environment. How many days of peace did we get in Iraq when we killed Zarqawi? 18, I think?

The Pakistani Army, though, is nonetheless preparing to move into South Waziristan this summer against the advice of Nicholas Schmidle and others and is in for a tough fight. We wish them all the best of luck, because they are going to need it:

Fighters loyal to Baitullah Mehsud have been moving into the area from elsewhere in Pakistan to fortify it. Commanders are dividing responsibilities, designating fighters for bomb making and remote detonation, said a fighter who spoke by telephone from the area.

“There’s a high level of preparation going on in all of South Waziristan,” he said. Even in Wana, a town outside Mr. Mehsud’s area, the roads were so heavily mined that many preferred to walk.

The fighters said the Taliban recently shut down courts they operated in the area, telling those who needed disputes resolved to come back in two months, because those who staffed them were now focused on fighting.

An associate of Mr. Mehsud said that the Taliban had the advantage of geography. “We are up,” he said, chopping the air above his head with the side of his hand, “and they are down.”

Well, good luck with that, General Kayani. One of the additional problems with this strategy, of course, is that by personalizing the conflict, it at once makes Baitullah Mehsud into a kind of resistance hero while not actually addressing the root causes of the rise of Islamist militancy in the tribal areas. The end of this article in today's New York Times talks sense:

Even if the military prevails, that will be only the beginning. The area is one of the country’s poorest, a condition that has made it ripe for militancy. A more lasting solution would require economic opportunity and government support, including an adequate police force.

In Bajaur, part of the tribal areas, the military cleared out militants last year, at great cost to civilians, but the militants have reasserted control. The reason, said Mr. Masood, the military analyst, is that a local government was never properly established.

That held a lesson.

“Militancy is like a monster,” said Habibullah Khan, a top bureaucrat for the tribal areas. “Even if only the tail is left, it will grow again from there.”

Again, my new BFF, General David Petraeus, made a claim at CNASapalooza '09 last week that the Pakistani Army "gets" clear-hold-build. I'll believe that when I see the "hold" and "build" phases of COIN. Specifically, I want to know what steps the Pakistani government is taking to address the problem of internally displaced persons from Swat. Show me a coherent plan for dealing with IDPs and re-establishing governance in the Swat Valley and I'll show you fresh confidence in your efforts on my end.

Just so I can end on a positive note, though, it is certainly heartening to see the way in which the Pakistani urban classes are united against the challenge posed by Mehsud and his ilk. That's a nice development to witness. And Lord knows, I don't think killing terrorists and their leaders is a bad thing. I highly recommend the activity as a job, in fact, for any young men out there possessing a reasonable amount of athleticism and intelligence. But let's be honest about what's really going to solve the problems currently facing the government of Pakistan. Killing some long-haired dude in a cave somewhere will no more solve Pakistan's problems than killing Osama bin Laden will ours."
http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2009/06/fata-follies.html

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David Rohde escapes from his Taliban kidnappers!

Times Reporter Held by Taliban Escapes
By THE NEW YORK TIMES 38 minutes ago
New York Times reporter David Rohde who was kidnapped by the Taliban has escaped and made his way to freedom after more than seven months of captivity in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/world/asia/21talibancnd.html

I did not even know he had been kidnapped, I thought he must have quit the Times. I thought his reports from Pakistan/Afghanistan in previous years were the best, they really helped my understanding of what was going on there, I always made it a habit to read if I saw his byline. If hopefully he's managed to get through this with pysche intact, I so look forward to reading what he has learned from this experience.

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Wow! great news!

Thanks for the tip

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Welcome. Here's hoping he's okay and not soured on going back to the same kind of work; we've got so few old style "foreign correspondents" left that aren't interested in being celebs, they're rare birds (no chicken reference intended.)

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the story of Ludin & Rohde's escape:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/22/world/asia/22tahir.html

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Three rockets hit Bagram air base -- a rare strike inside the vast, heavily fortified compound; kills 2 U.S. troops, wounds 6 Americans. The Taliban claims responsibility for the attack.
Los Angeles Times by David Zucchino:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-afghan-rockets22-2009jun22,0,5629373.story

A rare attack on Bagram Air Field
Christian Science Monitor
by Mark Sappenfield
...Attacks on Bagram are rare. Its location north of Kabul puts it out of the Taliban’s historic reach...
http://features.csmonitor.com/globalnews/2009/06/21/a-rare-attack-on-bagram-air-field

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ANALYSIS: Swat to South Waziristan —Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi
Daily Times - ‎Jun 20, 2009‎
It seems that the army is currently blocking exit points from South Waziristan into other tribal areas and the NWFP so that the Taliban do not easily slip ...
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C06%5C21%5Cstory_21-6-2009_pg3_2

High intensity' fight will end in 10 days: Gen Ghani
Daily Times - ‎Jun 20, 2009‎
CHUPRIAL: Pakistan could wrap up the main phase of its anti-Taliban offensive in the Swat valley within 10 days, a senior commander said on Saturday....
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C06%5C21%5Cstory_21-6-2009_pg1_3

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Fighter jets bomb South Waziristan
Daily Times - ‎Jun 19, 2009‎
PESHAWAR: Fighter jets bombed Taliban hideouts in South Waziristan on Friday, targeting two compounds, three madrassas and a suspected training camp under....

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C06%5C20%5Cstory_20-6-2009_pg1_1

Life returns to Buner
Daily Times - ‎Jun 19, 2009‎
DAGGAR: Life in the scenic valley of Buner – a stronghold of the Taliban for the past three months – has slowly started returning to normal as a government....

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C06%5C20%5Cstory_20-6-2009_pg7_3

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The Afghan Taliban warlord Pak seeks as a “friend” is US’ worst foe June 20th, 2009 - by ANI

Islamabad, June 20 (ANI): With the Pakistan government deciding to initiate an offensive against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, and ordering the troops to march in towards the warlord’s stronghold in the region, both the government and Mehsud now want Maulvi Nazir, a key Taliban commander in Afghanistan, to side by them.

While Mehsud is hell-bent upon creating havoc in Pakistan, Nazir is more focused on the Taliban’s activities in Afghanistan and fighting against the US led allied forces there.

For Pakistan, Nazir could apparently be an important ally, but it could also mean that Islamabad is trying to betray the United States because it (US) sees Nazir as a potential danger for its troops stationed in Afghanistan, a report in the Globe and the Mail said.

Pakistan is trying to woo one Taliban commander to fight against another, which suggests that it still has not been able to overcome the perception of ‘good’ Taliban and ‘bad’ Taliban, the report said.

“Pakistan still has this idea of ‘good’ militants and ‘bad’ militants. Baitullah is Pakistan’s problem. For securing U.S. objectives in Afghanistan, Maulvi Nazir remains important,” the report quoted Christine Fair, an analyst at Rand Corporation, as saying....

Wooing a Waziristan warlord

Friday, Jun. 19, 2009 08:37PM EDT

by Saeed Shah – The Globe and The Mail

Both the government and its militant enemy are eager to have Maulvi Nazir on its side…

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U.S. Drone Strike Said to Kill 60 in Pakistan
By PIR ZUBAIR SHAH and SALMAN MASOOD
If confirmed, a drone strike at a funeral might be the deadliest by unmanned U.S. aircraft in Pakistan.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/asia/24pstan.html

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Stop drone attacks on Pakistan soil Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:23:30 GMT

Islamabad once again loudly disapproves of US drone attacks on Pakistan's soil after attacks in the northwest of the country killed at least 80 people.

Washington must stop drone attacks on Pakistan's soil, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani told US President Barack Obama's top Security Adviser General James Jones, who is on a two-day visit to Islamabad.

He said that Washington must stop the drone attacks 'in order to ensure success of Pakistan's strategy for isolating the militants from the tribes'.

On Tuesday, two US drones attacked suspected Taliban militants gathered for a funeral in South Waziristan, Pakistani military and administration officials said....

Jones visited Islamabad as part of a short regional tour that has already taken him to neighboring Afghanistan to assess the United States' new strategy in the region.

He also met President Asif Ali Zardari and Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani. However in a statement that he issued, he made no mention of any rift over the use of drones to target militants in the lawless tribal belt....

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abdul Basit, who on Thursday echoed his prime minister's words said that the drone attacks were 'unacceptable and must be stopped...

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=99063§ionid=351020401

I am wondering how loud it really was, and whether for real or for Pakistani public consumption. Was there was a congenial photo op of the General and the Prime Minister after their talk? That would give a strong clue.

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Yup, apparently what's really going on is that they are trying to pressure us to give them Predators to play with themselves. And that we don't attack in their airspace without their (secret) permission. So crying about what we are doing publicly is disingenously using public pressure about sovereignity issues in order to get us to give them Predators not to mention to cover their asses with their own public:

Pakistan’s Zardari Sought U.S. Drones to Hit Taliban (Update1)

By Michael Heath and Khalid Qayum

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari asked the Obama administration to provide his armed forces with advanced American weapons to help crush Taliban insurgents in the tribal zone bordering Afghanistan.

Zardari, meeting with White House National Security Adviser James Jones in Islamabad yesterday, urged the U.S. to provide drone technology to boost his country’s “capacity to eliminate militants from its soil,” according to the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan....

Zardari asked the Obama administration to provide the Predator, one of the most advanced U.S. unmanned warplanes, when he visited the White House last month, said Marvin Weinbaum, a South Asia analyst and former State Department officer at Washington’s Middle East Institute. The U.S. offered further cooperation in sharing intelligence from the drone flights over Taliban strongholds, “but said basically, ‘let’s face it -- we’re not going to turn over hardware,’” Weinbaum said in a telephone interview, citing contacts in the administration.

Predator’s Cost

The roughly 10-meter- (33 feet-) long Predators, built by San Diego-based General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc., cost $4.5 million apiece and are armed with Hellfire missiles.

In February, U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned Pakistan’s protests over the Predator strikes, saying “as I understand it, these are flown out of a Pakistani base.” Zardari’s government has denied, and the U.S. administration declines to discuss, U.S. and Pakistani media reports that Predators are flown in Pakistan by the Central Intelligence Agency under a secret agreement....

In years of following Pakistan news off and on, I have found that you really can't trust public statements by bureaucrats and politicians, they play with spin in very complicated ways, much more than ours do in the U.S., especially on anything related to Islamist terrorism.

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Were Pakistani Nuclear Sites Attacked?

The Lede Blog, by ROBERT MACKEY, Aug. 11

In a little-noticed article published last month, a British academic pointed out that Islamist militants in Pakistan have launched at least three attacks in the past two years on military bases that may contain nuclear weapons.

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/have-pakistani-nuclear-facilities-already-been-attacked/index.html

Musharraf Faces Arrest on Return to Pakistan

By SALMAN MASOOD
Published: August 11, 2009

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Islamabad police officials said Tuesday that they had registered a criminal case against former President Pervez Musharraf for detaining Supreme Court judges after he imposed emergency rule in 2007, raising the prospect of his arrest if he returns to the country....

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/12/world/asia/12musharraf.html

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Thanks for flagging the nuclear site story, well all of them really, but I had wondered about that for awhile.

I did not know this:

As Mr. Gregory writes, the fact that Pakistan was primarily concerned, in the 1970s and 1980s, with the threat of an invasion by India, rather than Islamic militancy spreading from Afghanistan, the military “chose to locate much of its nuclear weapons infrastructure to the north and west of the country,” which means that today, “most of Pakistan’s nuclear sites are close to or even within areas dominated by Pakistani Taliban militants and home to Al Qaeda.”

Not very comforting if this remains the case.

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Leadership of Taliban in Pakistan Still Unclear

By SABRINA TAVERNISE and PIR ZUBAIR SHAH
Published: August 10, 2009

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Conflicting claims continued to swirl Monday around what has become of the Taliban leadership in Pakistan after the movement’s top commander, Baitullah Mehsud, was reported last week to have been killed in an American drone strike.....

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/world/asia/11pstan.html

U.S. Missile Kills at Least 10 in Pakistan Tribal Area

By PIR ZUBAIR SHAH and SABRINA TAVERNISE
Published: August 11, 2009

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — An American missile hit the Mehsud tribal region of South Waziristan on Tuesday, killing at least 10 people in the same area where the leader of the Pakistani Taliban was apparently killed in a drone attack last week, Pakistani security officials said....

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/12/world/asia/12pstan.html

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Taliban in Pakistan Confirm That Their Leader Is Dead
By SALMAN MASOOD
New York Times, August 25, 2009
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistani Taliban leaders acknowledged for the first time on Tuesday that their leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was dead, confirming claims of American and Pakistani officials....

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/26/world/asia/26pstan.html

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Mingora Journal: New Wardrobe Brings Freedom to Women in Swat

By SABRINA TAVERNISE, Published: September 22, 2009

MINGORA, Pakistan...

...the Taliban are mostly gone, driven out by a military operation this summer, and the women of this northern Pakistani city, the largest in the Swat Valley, are returning to public life. Teachers are back at work, maids are commuting to jobs across town and nurses are giving injections without having to squint through a coarse layer of netting....

The burqa was not the worst of women’s troubles, but it was one of the most public displays of what the Taliban wanted of women — that they disappear. At first many women changed to a Persian Gulf niqab, with a slit for the eyes. But that was not enough for the Taliban, so the Afghanistan ghost style became mandatory.

“That’s when we started falling down,” said Shahi Begum, a 45-year-old primary school teacher. Like horses with blinders on, women lost their peripheral vision. Climbing into rickshaws became treacherous, as women gathered billowing material to sit in a small space. “Legs in one direction, hands in another,” Ms. Begum said.

Sharisa Rehman, a teacher who returned to her job at the Sangota Girls School on Aug. 3, said she still had difficulty thinking about the time she spent under Taliban rule. “I was bound like a prisoner,” she said....

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/world/asia/23burqa.html

Pakistan: Militants Destroy a School for Girls By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, Published: September 22, 2009

Islamic militants blew up a girls’ school close to Peshawar, the main city in northwestern Pakistan, on Tuesday, the police said. The school was empty at the time and no one was injured....

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/world/asia/23briefs-Pakistan.html


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