Josh Marshall on the E.U. reaction to Obamanomics: not exactly
Josh Marshall in this post seems to suggest that E.U. antipathy to Obama administration levels of Keynesian stimulus (as well as China's) should be dismissed as the ranting of one crazy right-wing Czech E.U. president.
I think he misleads his readers by doing that, it is a denial of reality that will not prepare them for what they are going to continue to hear from Europe, and the problems the Obama administration will be confronting in that regard.. It's not just a bunch of crazy Czechs who are thinking along those lines, it's also Germany and France.
James Surowiecki summarizes the situation well in this short column for the March 30 New Yorker,
....While the U.S. is devoting almost six per cent of its G.D.P. to fiscal stimulus, France and Germany are spending a barely noticeable twenty-six billion euros and fifty billion euros, respectively. Whereas the U.S. hopes that the upcoming G20 summit will lead to a global stimulus package, European policymakers have been warning against the dangers of "crass Keynesianism." The U.S. Federal Reserve has been flooding our economy with money, but the European Central Bank has cut interest rates slowly and reluctantly. Far from wild-eyed leftists, Europeans are looking downright conservative.
...Europe's caution also reflects important differences between its economy and ours, as well as a profoundly different attitude toward things like inflation and debt. If European and American policymakers seem, in their public statements, to be dealing with two very different financial crises, it's because, in some sense, they are....
Read the whole thing, it won't take long and it will give you a clearer picture of why you will not see strong support for large stimulus from the E.U. Yes, that will feed U.S. "winger" arguments against Obama's plan, but your response to them is right in the article: they have hefty safety nets for and tolerance for high unemployment, we don't (not to mention, they have us to always be the growth guinea pig while they go for "stability.")
















Okay, keep going...?
March 26, 2009 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great post!
I'm annoyed that the person who kidnapped the real Josh Marshall is pushing his misleading attempt to write off Czech's positions to posturing for dramatic effects and relevance.
He did the same thing yesterday when he lumped DeSantis with some anonymous bankers to pretend that Wall Street is saying "fuck you" to Treasury and Obama.
March 26, 2009 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
He did the same thing yesterday
Yeah I saw that, I saw the thread and his front page reference to it, and read most of the comments. I was glad to see several people challenge him on it, but chickened out of participating. I chickened out of participating because it inspired me to start writing s long screed about the good tradition of muckraking and the bad tradition of muckraking. The latter being sacrificing a search for truth for riling class warfare, just for the schadenfraud of it, or worse, as with Fleet Street tabloid tradition, and it's current incarnation, Rupert Murdoch, just for the profit of it.
Now that would have bored some people and caused others to troll on non-related, and others to think of me as arrogant harridan unless I really spent a lot of time editing it. And, I thought, to what end?
And then I saw a commenter named kgb999, whose postings here I admire, challenge the story, and say I'd never really seen that in Josh before. And I thought, really? That made me want to write even more. You hadn't noticed that as one of his weaknesses? And I thought about other examples, and I thought of the work of going back to find the links, and thought of the benefit of what kind of response I would get. I would be a lot of work, and to what end, and I chickened out, I'm lazy.
The rest of you challengers got the main point across on the single incident, and I thought it was good you did so. I guess I'm just not capable of doing a concise reply on what I saw there, it's too important to me.
This post was an easier call, it's just disinfo. that I had recently read done some reading on.
March 26, 2009 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
More tutorial for Josh Marshall on topic here:
codegen86's Blog: What is with the Czechs
codegen basically says the same thing as Surowiecki, without knowing of his article. And with more accurate detail on the Czech situation as well. From reading his posting in the past, I believe codegen is an American expat somewhere in the EU, though I am not sure about that.
March 26, 2009 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I actually used to be a Czech expat in the US (now somewhere in the EU). Close enough, I suppose :)
March 26, 2009 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is it true that Germany and France (the other EEC members are small beer) are not engaged in fiscal stimulus?
After all fiscal stimulus is nothing much more than substituting public debt for private debt -- deficit spending. What with their expensive social safety nets Germany and France look set to do quite a bit of deficit spending soon if not sooner.
March 26, 2009 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jawhol mein Ellen. Couldn't it also be explained like this: they are already are and have been paying those taxes that, in the opinion of some, our stimulus will be "saddling the next generation" with?
A bigger question that interests me is: how did we continue the cultural tradition, inspired in large amount by Northern European immigrant, of liking to see a man work for his dollar and not get "handouts," while Germans themselves learned to be ok with a large number of people getting extensive unemployment benefits et. al.? Of course, it's all relative; in 1990, I seem to remember not that many in West Germany being that happy with granting benefits to an entire used-to-uber-socialism population all at once.
March 26, 2009 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I lived and worked in germany for 7 years and i still remember the initial shock of looking at my payslip and seeing all the taxes. Then, the rules and procedures for this and that.
I have a rather unpleasant hypothesis on the question you ask. I think we managed to continue that cultural tradition of "working for the dollar" because we only had the Great Depression whereas Germany was completely wiped out in two wars.
Plus, the spirit of individual achievement and possibility is what drove many people to leave Europe and come here, which may imply a certain distrust of governments that give with one hand and take with another.
March 26, 2009 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fact that we left the continent before 1848 probably has something to do with it as well.
March 26, 2009 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure everybody knows, but unlike 8 years ago, the current crop of EU leaders, like Merkel in Germany, are right-leaning. She's a Christian conservative. So her refusal of stimulus measures is nothing different than our own Party of No here -- free market dogma run amock.
March 26, 2009 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find Surowiecki's take more persuasive than yours. There ARE no U.S. style Repugs in the E.U. outside of fringe xenophobe right parties. And because of the longstanding social welfare state consensus, even "right" E.U. gv'ts--read moderate U.S. Dems, most to the left of the Blue Dogs--are much less game-changing than U.S. wingnuts like Bush or McCain.
March 27, 2009 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
This seems a salient point. As Ellen points says, the EU countries already spend vast amounts on their social systems. But I don't understand completely how this affects the different outlooks on each side of the Atlantic. Don't the EU countries also spend more in support of agriculture and industry than we do?
Anyone care to add more on the differences we face here compared with the EU?
The Czech Republic doesn't represent all the EU. What differences are there among the various EU countries in their approaches to the crisis? We need someone to break this down a bit more, if someone can.
And how many Euros can I bring back in a suitcase?
March 26, 2009 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Part of the fallout from the last eight years is our increasing irrelevance as the "world's only superpower". We have no leverage, either militarily or economically and the world knows it.
It no longer matters if we think the Czech president of the EU is a rightwing clown, it matters what the EU thinks - and does. There is going to be intense pressure by the EU which sees its advantage in our economic downfall in replacing the dollar standard with the EURO. The more dollars we pump into the world system the more worthless it becomes. The EU is going to hunker down, watch us spend ourselves silly and then pounce.
"WE WELCOME EUROS" will be the sign next to the cash register at your neighborhood McDonald's...
March 26, 2009 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bev, you're prognosticating just like a CNBC'er! You should apply for the job of being their Katrina van der Heuvel. :-)
March 26, 2009 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know whether to be mad or laugh at that, AA.
March 26, 2009 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
laugh. and it's actually a very interesting "call."
March 26, 2009 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd be happy if they'd just cash my Canadian currency.
March 26, 2009 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't true yet, and not for a while. Europe's recession will be worse than ours. Any how, the countries that surpass us are not going to be aging, weak economies like in the EU which can't coordinate policy, but China and India. China is the next US. We regard it much like Europe regarded the US in the 19th century -- the sweatshop of the world, crude, copyright infringing, the wild west. Europe is a fading empire.
March 26, 2009 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is one Londoner's wry take on the G20:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23666030-details/Stay+home,+swap+notes+by+email:+London+does+not+need+this+summit/article.do
March 26, 2009 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
oy, yeah, and he brings up a lot of interesting points about these symbolic meetings. As a New Yorker, I am very sympathetic to the average Londoner about this, I have read elsewhere about preparations and threats, and the physical aspects of the meeting sound like a very special nightmare acoming.
Did you catch this part of his end paragraph, I believe it is an intentionally sarcastic understatement in good Brit tradition:
Gordon Brown is not popular at present
March 26, 2009 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did catch. Enjoyable read coming from someone living in a town with eons of experience with this kind of thing.
March 26, 2009 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, Josh is right and Europe is just being stingy and nationalistic and shortsighted. It's classic Keynsian economics. Krugman has also warned about the EU being too stingy for you folks keeping score.
And I don't think the rosy view of Europe tolerating high unemployment is accurate, since it is already extremely high in some places. I've been to places where it was 20% and it was not pretty. A check for 50% of your former salary doesn't make people feel happy about life, especially for people who have been unemployed for several years.
And inflation -- their big concern -- is the least of our worries -- deflation is far worse, but none of these policy makers have ever experienced it and so can't imagine what is in store for us.
March 26, 2009 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, there's a gap in the size of the stimulus, but the automatic stabilizers close about 1/3 to 1/2 of that gap, depending on the country (according to the IMF.) If we extend or expand unemployment benefits, it's called "stimulus." But if a country had the foresight to write their laws so that benefits automatically extend or expand, then it doesn't need to be included in the official "stimulus," but it can have the dame impact.
Beyond that, there's differences in how the banks and monetary policy are being handled, differences in the amount of fiscal room each nation has, differences in the condition of local banks, on and on. Add 'em all up, compare to local conditions, and damned if I know who's running the best policies. (Though my bet's on "None of the above.")
'Til then, I'm just digging on listening to various media dorks say, "America has the BIGGEST STIMULUS, ya know." Sometimes I wish we had a good coroner to figure out when the clot actually HIT the media brain.
March 26, 2009 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I read you correctly, you are saying that EU criticism of the US stimulation package and other actions to sturdy the banking system might be right or might be wrong. The situation is so complicated that you can't be sure. Correct?
March 26, 2009 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll just chime in with a couple of points. EU monetary policy is behind the curve, and they could be doing more to expand credit. The ECB is also a lot weaker than the US Fed, and so can't just start printing money willy-nilly like Helicopter Ben is doing. And their banking crisis is somewhat different. In the US the earthquake has hit. In Europe there is still a ticking time-bomb with the possibility of Eastern European sovereign defaults and EE banks. So their situation is simply very different.
As for fiscal policy, the main point of any recession/depression spending is supposed to be primarily psychological - people will spend and invest when they don't fear losing everything by losing their job. So you throw money at them until they begin to feel optimistic. The automatic stabilizers that they have in Europe cannot be compared to 'stimulus spending' on a dollar for dollar basis. It is the psychological effect of knowing that if you lose your job/business, you won't lose your health insurance, your kids can still go to college, you won't have to move to that dangerous neighborhood, and so on. That kind of social insurance that is much broader in Europe effects as a psychological stabilizer which has no equivalent in the US. So their stimulus might be less dollar for dollar (even taking into account Q's points), but is probably as or more effective than the gazillions Obama is throwing at the nation over the next two years.
March 26, 2009 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree overall with you. They could give a smaller stimulus and it would certainly help. But Germany defying other members and saying "Nein" to coordinated EU action is just terrible. It's exactly the sort of pissy nationalism that nobody needs right now.
March 26, 2009 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
czech is the country that insists on calling itself "central european" (chip on the shoulder there???) according to my russian friend. AND probably is terrified of anything sounding even remotely like socialism. Don't they run on bully-capitalism?
Crazy czechs. Sorry, radek. you know I still love ya.
March 26, 2009 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you, ah, looked at a map of Europe recently? :)
The Czech Republic is pretty much as close to the centre as possible; although one may want to draw additional lines based on the iron curtain or Indo-europan vs. Slavic heritages, the area can certainly be counted European (a vague term as any) and was, before the second of the large skirmishes a couple decades ago. Prague, in particular, has long been a cultural centre.
March 27, 2009 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nor should we ever forget that "whoever rules Bohemia, rules Europe" -- Otto von Bismarck
March 27, 2009 1:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
here's the problem with Europe. imagine how upset we'd be if 90% of our stimulus bucks went to another country.
Or imagine if we didn't have a central govt (ie treasury) to tell us what's what and do what it likes.
Imagine half your population still terrified of socialism. and the other half not feeling the recession so much on account of the social welfare state.
March 26, 2009 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just to point out something that may be fairly obvious, generally the EU countries have already been putting far more money into just such government projects as are discussed in the U.S. as means of stimulus (infrastructure, unemployment benefits etc.)
That is not to say that this would not be an opportune time to do more, but it seems rather silly to compare figures without taking something like this into consideration.
Someone already pointed out that, inexplicably, a vast majority of the EU and other European countries currently have liberalist governments (i.e. right-of-centre, although there is a prominent difference in that those parties tend to be liberal both economically and socially, unlike in the U.S.) This certainly influences decisions made on the EU side; and at the risk of further pointing out the obvious, the effects, symptoms and causes of financial problems in the EU are not identical to those of the U.S. and may not benefit from an identical treatment.
March 27, 2009 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Just to point out something that may be fairly obvious, generally the EU countries have already been putting far more money into just such government projects as are discussed in the U.S. as means of stimulus (infrastructure, unemployment benefits etc.)"
Western Europe, you mean.
Eastern Eurpe has the Mother of All Real Estate Bubbles and is gonna get ugly. Unfortunately for rich countries that would prefer to sit on their hands, they are heavily intetwined.
Since when did so many supposedly liberal people now come to see the wisdom of free market austerity? I don't get it. There's no difference between the nihlism of a John Boehner and Angela Merkel.
March 27, 2009 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you have anything to back up the claim that Eastern Europe is on the verge of a real estate collapse? There was some concern about this a few years back, but currently it seems that Spain, in particular, might be far worse off?
And, on one hand, we are still talking about a fairly different marketplace from the U.S., especially where ripple effects to other regions are concerned in financial terms. Oil and gas are, of course, a big potential problem if there should be a disastrous collapse of economy (although one would imagine withholding energy supplies and thereby forgoing the profits thereof would be the last thing to be considered in such a case).
I am not entirely sure what your argument is here, but I am of the opinion that the mutterings are not just one crazy Czech, for the reasons enumerated.
March 27, 2009 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well it's just like the war in Iraq. Even assuming that European leaders had wanted to get rid of Saddam Hussein, why should they have risked their own political futures on all that unpleasantness, when George W. Bush was practically begging to go it alone?
Same principle: why should they fork over their own Euros when their banks are loading up on AIG dollars courtesy of Uncle Sam?
March 27, 2009 4:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe there is a certain fear of Obama's potential for massive popularity in Europe and around the world. By opposing Obama I think they hope to keep him from influencing their elections, a liberal rising. But just like the Republicans, the European leaders will probably find out that Obamamania can't be stopped and it would be better to embrace Obama as a political ally than stand against him by putting out such strong statements.
March 27, 2009 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good observation. In a way he has called their bluff. They had a convenient and cartoonish foil in GWB who they could play off of. It was all the US' fault for not fixing these huge int'l problems. Now you have a president who reaches out to them and wants to work together, and they don't know what to do. We can only hope that the example of Obama and grassroots activism will spill over and replace the current crop of rightwing European leaders who are woefully inadequate to the huge problems we all face -- economics, global warming, etc.
March 27, 2009 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Updates. (Worth stating that things pretty much appear to be as Surowiecki laid out, though they're still working on it):
New York Times April 2 print edition:
Updated story posted to website "11 minutes ago." Obama's team is trying to cut down the universal cross-border regulations than Germany and France want:
April 2, 2009 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
A nice roundup of opinions (from the U.S.) on what actually got accomplished at G20, with links:
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/04/what_actually_got_done_at_the.html
April 8, 2009 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink