I Will Dispute It
After last Tuesday's (5/6) primaries in SC and IN, Tim Russert declared, "We now know who the Democratic nominee will be. And no one will dispute it."
I conceded defeat in my mind, even though Hillary hadn't yet. I was operating under the presumption that she no longer had any chance to make up the gap in popular vote. I figured that if Russert was to make such a declaration, they must have crunched the numbers. Even though SC actually played out as expected, last minute expectations had been shifted by tightening poll numbers making the outcome more dramatic.
I now wonder what the hell he was talking about and what I must have been on to trust him. The media long ago understood that Hillary was not going to catch up in pledged delegates. They knew her argument rested on the popular vote. They seemed to believe, as I and her other supporters did, that if she captured the lead in popular vote she would have a legitimate claim to the nomination to take to the superdelegates. Polls have indicated that the American public think superdelegates should go with the winner of the popular vote. I'd be happy to take a look at any polls that show otherwise. Please share them if you have them.
After a week of waivering support, I took a look at the article that gave me hope in the first place. This US News one. It laid out Hillary's path to winning the popular vote. It turns out, according to their predictions, she still very much can. In fact, it only projected her to win 107k votes in W VA and she actually won 147k. That's a big spread.
Here are that articles predictions for the remaining states:
KY Clinton +134,707 OR Clinton -59,419 Puerto Rico Clinton +300,000 Montana Clinton +28,488 SD Clinton +18,805According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is only behind in popular vote by 409,060 if you include estimates for the four caucuses that did not keep a vote tally and FL's votes. If you add up the predictions from US News, it comes to 422,581 votes for Hillary. That would leave her ahead by 13,521 votes. What I don't get is why the premature conclusion that the race is over. If most pundits before seemed to think that winning the popular vote would give Clinton a real argument to the superdelegates, what changed? Anyway, this is my reasoning to think that the race isn't quite over. As many of you know, I will support Obama if he becomes the nominee, but I'm not ready to accept that he is the nominee yet. It's not over til it's over.












