Recent FOX Poll a Joke. . . . Surprise!
I've seen some here at TPM take the recent (10/30) FOX poll as evidence of a possible tightening of the race between Obama and McCain. For shame!
The most recent FOX/Opinion Dynamics poll showing a three-point race (Obama 47%, McCain 44%) is comprised of respondents who self identified as follows: Republican - 40% (or 364 of 924); and Democrat - 41% (or 379 of 924).
Compare this to the FOX/Opinion Dynamics poll from about a week ago (10/22), which showed a nine point race (Obama 49%, McCain 40%), and which was comprised of respondents who self identified as follows: Republican 37% (or 345 of 936); and Democrat - 43% (or 401 of 936).
Also, note that only 11% of the respondents in the 10/30 poll were newly registered voters (i.e., registered within the last two years), whereas 14% of the respondents for the 10/22 poll were similalry newly registered.
So, FOX creates a poll of individuals evenly split between the Republican party and the Democratic party (which is a party ID not reasonably expected by any self-respecting pollster), and with fewer newly registered voters than its prior polls. Then, to keep the narrative going, it claims that, surprise, surprise, the race is tightening.
Why does anyone listen to these folks? More importantly, why don't y'all at TPM note this when repeating the poll's findings?
















How do pollsters select participants? Do they just weight the poll if they randomly select more from one party or another?
October 30, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink