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A fascinating (and wonderful :o) Gallup tidbit


I scrolled down farther than usual on the Gallup site this morning and discovered a wide variety of tabbed results from national polling of which I wasn't previously aware. What got me especially excited is the relative breakdown of support in blue, purple, and red states.

Though it was no surprise to see Obama with an enormous lead in blue states and a substantial lead in battleground states, I didn't expect to see him coming so close on average nationally in what have been traditionally red states.

                    Obama    McCain

Red states       44%        48%
Purple states   55%        38%
Blue states      57%        36%


And this only includes data from the week ending October 12 -- the week before had a spread of eight points in the red states!

If such polling results accurately mirror general voter sentiment in these states, I think we're not only going to be witnessing a big victory for Obama in two weeks, but a seminal shift in the political atmosphere of the nation as a whole.

The full results of this breakdown going back to June are here:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108061/Candidate-Support-Red-Purple-Blue-States.aspx

 

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Late-night update:

Gallup just published new figures for the week ending October 19, and they have the red-state spread widening slightly again to six points while the purple-state spread takes a fairly large dive to eight points. Obama's advantage in blue states, however, has increased further. It will be interesting to see if the current week's totals will reflect the greater expansion of Obama's lead that we've witnessed over the past couple of days. Here are the latest numbers:

 

                    Obama    McCain

Red states       44%        50%
Purple states   51%        43%
Blue states      59%        33%


3 Comments

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Good catch, ami!

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Thanks for posting this. Fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc.

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The RCP poll average saw a dip for Obama on the 19th so that may be reflected in your update. As of today however he is at his highest average there that I've seen since the conventions. I think some of it is a Colin Powell bounce. Anyway his numbers in purple states probably look better than they did on the 19th.

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Expat Earthling. An Air Force brat with the complicated past and multiple neuroses to prove it. I've been living in southwest Germany since 1995 and am looking forward to a reversal of the ever-growing estrangement I've felt to my country of citizenship. Oh yeah -- despite what the alias seems to suggest, I'm a guy. ("Ami" -- pronounced ahh-mee -- is German slang for "American")

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