Trees, meet forest.

Is there something we're not exactly seeing that could account for Obama's rout of Clinton in nearly every segment of the electorate tonight? Rachel Maddow was trying to get at something like this when she said we should be looking at the massive margins, and not parsing the demographics.

Obama is winning big in VA, MD, and DC among white male voters, voters earning under $50,000, voters earning over $50,000, Catholic voters, African-American voters, young voters, upscale voters, union voters, liberal voters, independent voters and cross-over Republican voters. And he's apparently edging her out in older voters and Latinos voters. Other than Jewish voters and gay voters, that's about the entire electorate.

And we haven't seen this happen anywhere else.
Except... Illinois.

Democratic voters across the spectrum voted overwhelmingly for Obama in Illinois. Should that be attributed solely to his favorite son status? Can't we also consider that they are the voters most intimately familiar with him? They know him, they've seen him in person and on television over and over for years. And they like him.

Voters in Iowa, who got to see, hear, and engage with Obama for more than 6 months, voted similarly.

Well... who else in the country has had significant day to day exposure to Obama? Outside of Illinois, which voters probably read about and hear him speak most often?

If I had to guess, I'd say it's the citizens of Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, DC.

Isn't it possible--perhaps likely--that this new, across-the-board poaching of Clinton's "base" is not a result of Obama finally succeeding in tailoring his message to numerous micro slivers of the electorate, but really a macro reflection of how well-known, and well-liked, he is by tonight's voters?

If that's true, it could be a powerful argument in favor of his candidacy.

I prepared this look at the pledged delegate landscape before this Times article appeared, about an hour ago:

For Clinton, Ohio and Texas Emerge as Key States to Win

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

I agree. If Obama runs the table tomorrow and in HI and WI on Feb. 19, even if Clinton wins TX by 20 points, but loses OH by, say, 4 points, her future looks grim.

Let's look at the landscape:

Today, Obama's pledged delegate lead is +86. (Bowers)

Tomorrow, it will be, conservatively, +110.
(Constituent Dynamics puts his pickup tomorrow at +32, for a +118 lead.)

With a win in HI (+5) and WI (+10), it will be +125.

MARCH 4
Obama will win VT and keep RI close. Call it a -2.

TX: a 60%-40% win probably won't bring an expected 116-77 split, because the district math doesn't favor Clinton. So let's speculate that she gets a 106-87 split, or +29.

OH: if Obama wins here by a close margin, say 52%-48%, he'll get a 74-67 split, or +7.

So 31-7=  +24 for Clinton on March 4. Bringing Obama's lead down to +101.

At that time some superdelegates could choose to endorse on both sides, but Obama seems to be closing that gap, and will probably come close to tieing that score up.

MARCH 8 + 11
Obama likely wins WY (+4) and MS (+11), adding 15 to his total for +116.

So at that point, what's the likely pledged delegate landscape after March 11?
Do the DNC and all the other superdelegates WANT this thing to drag on 6 long, empty weeks?
(Will there be FL and MI do-overs in this space?)

Given that the numbers from PA to the end don't look good for Clinton (PA, KY, and PR are her best bets out of 9 contests), I'm not sure they will want it to drag on.

APRIL 22
A 60%-40% win in PA produces a 95-63 pledged delegate split-- +32 pickup for Clinton.

Bringing Obama's lead down to +84.

FINAL STRETCH
Then there are 8 final contests: IN NC WV OR KY SD MT PR.

With unlikely 70%-30% wins in both KY and PR, she could pick up a +45.
But +35 is much more realistic.

However, Obama could pick up +21 with a 58%-42% win in NC alone.

So 35 - 21 gives Clinton a pickup of +14. Bringing Obama's lead down to +60.

But Obama will probably also win  OR(+6) , SD(+5), and MT(+5). And he'll keep it close in IN(-8) and WV(-8). Tallying those (conservative) wins for Obama and (generous) wins for Clinton, you get a total wash: 0 delegate movement.

So if Clinton wins Texas comfortably but loses Ohio by just 4 points, Obama ends the primary season with at least 60 more pledged delegates. A substantial amount. And with a win in IN and/or closer losses elsewhere, his lead increases.

And with a narrower TX win by Clinton, it gets even worse for her.

With that outlook, I'd say that March 5 will begin the Pressure Primary, which Obama will eventually win, with the help of superdelegates and the media.

As always this year, the wild cards are FL and MI. But I just don't see any way the delegations those two state parties are currently assembling will be allowed to count in the delegate math BEFORE a nominee is chosen. If one or both hold new caucuses in April, then they will of course be added to the totals. But in that case, Obama has a great chance of keeping those delegate splits very close.

-AL