A report from the ground in Raleigh, NC
I did some canvassing in Raleigh today, in some areas around I-540 and Six Forks Rd. The main goal was to remind Democratic households to vote and inform them of their polling place. The only really pro-McCain people I encountered were those who had moved into houses where the people on our lists had formerly lived. I guess that means that most of the people we had down as supportive had, at least, not changed their minds. The neighborhoods were very affluent and mostly pro-McCain, although there were a couple of Obama signs and one guy told me that several of his neighbors had their Obama/Biden signs stolen. One lady was so nice that she invited me in for a glass of lemonade and cookies -- Southeast Asian, a middle aged realtor who had always been a Republican but ardently supported Obama. This being North Carolina, the McCain supporters were reasonably pleasant, if clipped, in turning me away, and none of the people were of the "fucking n*****" variety. The area was totally white save for a few Asian families (almost entirely pro-Obama), and one African American household.
All I can say is that Raleigh is supposed to be one of the most liberal parts of the state, and it doesn't seem to be as thumpingly pro-Obama as one might hope. I'm not sure if there's enough support here to offset the large margins McCain is likely to achieve in many rural areas. Maybe there is. There has been much talk about the incredible Obama ground game, and the organizers I met were pretty confident that no virtually no McCain organization existed on the ground. (Reports say that Mac has pulled his limited funds out of paid organizing at the last minute to focus on ads, leaving the get-out-the-vote work to the local parties and, presumably, the churches.) Though I've seen several Obama canvassers out and about (Saira's parent's place has been hit twice in as many days), I did see one Jeep with McCain and Dole stickers making stops around the same neighborhood where I was working.
There weren't too terribly many people hanging around the Strickland Ave office when I started this afternoon, but when I returned later on in the evening many more people, largely but not entirely young, were coming in to canvass, phonebank, and enter data. It's hard to gauge the intensity of the campaign from the bustle in an office like this, since Obama has so opened many different locations throughout Raleigh, some even out of people's houses. I'm coming away with the impression that Obama has dramatically more support in NC than Kerry or Gore ever did, but that it's still going to be a steeper climb here than in Virginia (if the polls are any indication). Ultimately, northern VA may just have more of the educated, mid-level professional class of people than NC has concentrated in Charlotte and the Research Triangle - this white-collar workforce presumably includes many potential Obama voters, although the depth of pro-McCain feeling among the upper-middle-class suburbanites of North Raleigh shows how income and education levels certainly do not equate to Democratic support in this area.
I don't want to be too discouraging about Obama's prospects here. He has been in up in most recent NC polls, and his ground organization may be enough to counterbalance the inevitable turnout of scared and/or bigoted voters. If nothing else, his excellent campaign may provide enough of a boost in Democratic turnout to help State Sen. Kay Hagan get across the finish line in the race against Elizabeth Dole; some traditional Democrats who can't vote for Obama may find themselves in the booth and vote for Hagan for Senate and Bev Perdue for Gov. Many people seem to be discounting her chances lately, but I still have a gut feeling that Perdue will eke out a victory in the end. For some reason, North Carolinians have a thing for Democratic governors, whether they have much to offer or not, and Republican Pat McCrory has to overcome general resentment in the state toward the city of Charlotte, where he is mayor. This goes along with my belief that comedian Al Franken will pull out a win in the Minnesota Senate race against skeezball opportunist Norm Coleman, despite the fluctuating polls. I think the Minnesotans will visit a punishing vengeance for the spirit of the great Paul Wellstone.
What my gut still can't be sure about is the presidential election. NC may be very, very close, and I can't help but thinking VA is closer than people think it is. Our energy might be put to better use in VA, which might be more of a "tipping point," in my opnion, but it's a lot easier to help out where while we're hanging with my wife's fam and our nephew Bilal. If NC did somehow fall into the Dem column, it would be a very sweet prize indeed, even though Obama could probably win the election without NC's electoral votes.
All I can say is that Raleigh is supposed to be one of the most liberal parts of the state, and it doesn't seem to be as thumpingly pro-Obama as one might hope. I'm not sure if there's enough support here to offset the large margins McCain is likely to achieve in many rural areas. Maybe there is. There has been much talk about the incredible Obama ground game, and the organizers I met were pretty confident that no virtually no McCain organization existed on the ground. (Reports say that Mac has pulled his limited funds out of paid organizing at the last minute to focus on ads, leaving the get-out-the-vote work to the local parties and, presumably, the churches.) Though I've seen several Obama canvassers out and about (Saira's parent's place has been hit twice in as many days), I did see one Jeep with McCain and Dole stickers making stops around the same neighborhood where I was working.
There weren't too terribly many people hanging around the Strickland Ave office when I started this afternoon, but when I returned later on in the evening many more people, largely but not entirely young, were coming in to canvass, phonebank, and enter data. It's hard to gauge the intensity of the campaign from the bustle in an office like this, since Obama has so opened many different locations throughout Raleigh, some even out of people's houses. I'm coming away with the impression that Obama has dramatically more support in NC than Kerry or Gore ever did, but that it's still going to be a steeper climb here than in Virginia (if the polls are any indication). Ultimately, northern VA may just have more of the educated, mid-level professional class of people than NC has concentrated in Charlotte and the Research Triangle - this white-collar workforce presumably includes many potential Obama voters, although the depth of pro-McCain feeling among the upper-middle-class suburbanites of North Raleigh shows how income and education levels certainly do not equate to Democratic support in this area.
I don't want to be too discouraging about Obama's prospects here. He has been in up in most recent NC polls, and his ground organization may be enough to counterbalance the inevitable turnout of scared and/or bigoted voters. If nothing else, his excellent campaign may provide enough of a boost in Democratic turnout to help State Sen. Kay Hagan get across the finish line in the race against Elizabeth Dole; some traditional Democrats who can't vote for Obama may find themselves in the booth and vote for Hagan for Senate and Bev Perdue for Gov. Many people seem to be discounting her chances lately, but I still have a gut feeling that Perdue will eke out a victory in the end. For some reason, North Carolinians have a thing for Democratic governors, whether they have much to offer or not, and Republican Pat McCrory has to overcome general resentment in the state toward the city of Charlotte, where he is mayor. This goes along with my belief that comedian Al Franken will pull out a win in the Minnesota Senate race against skeezball opportunist Norm Coleman, despite the fluctuating polls. I think the Minnesotans will visit a punishing vengeance for the spirit of the great Paul Wellstone.
What my gut still can't be sure about is the presidential election. NC may be very, very close, and I can't help but thinking VA is closer than people think it is. Our energy might be put to better use in VA, which might be more of a "tipping point," in my opnion, but it's a lot easier to help out where while we're hanging with my wife's fam and our nephew Bilal. If NC did somehow fall into the Dem column, it would be a very sweet prize indeed, even though Obama could probably win the election without NC's electoral votes.
