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Week of April 20, 2008 - April 26, 2008

Axelrod And The White Working Class


Yesterday, Axelrod down played the role of the white working class vote.

“The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections, going back even to the Clinton years. This is not new that Democratic candidates don’t rely solely on those votes," he says.

Axelrod said the problem is older voters.  Maybe he means older white working class voters?  I don't know.

Whatever he meant, it seems that he has his facts wrong.  It is true that Democratic candidates don't rely solely on those votes.  But  it is also true that the last Democratic candidate to win the White House did win the white working class vote.

Again, Ben Smith points to this article:

John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira:

"Keep in mind that Bill Clinton actually carried white working-class voters in both his successful presidential campaigns (by a single percentage point in both instances)," they write.


One Wo/Man One Vote?


If the super delegates decide to give Hillary the nomination, you can bet that many will be outraged.  Some will use the over turning the will of the people argument.

It seems unlikely that the super delegates will have the courage to vote for Hillary if she is behind in pledged delegates and in the popular vote.

But the popular vote argument being pushed by the Clinton camp is important because there is still the possibility that she may over take him in the popular vote count while loosing in the pledged delegate count.

Leaving the accurate popular vote count argument for another time, the pledged delegate count is not based on a one wo/man, one vote concept.  Smaller states have disproportional delegate representation.  It is based on a concept of "fairness".

Ben Smith ( I know you all hate him) points to an article about DNC rules that illustrates how pledged delegates do not represent one wo/man, one vote.

<blockquote>In a comprehensive, and funny, article detailing how tweaks to party rules have shaped the  presidential campaigns, Josiah Lee Auspitz highlights a delegate quirk that Obama has been able to exploit:

In the least populous jurisdictions, Wyoming and the District of Columbia, each delegate stands for about 4,000 and 5,000 Democratic presidential voters respectively, whereas in Ohio and Florida a delegate represents about 17,000 Democratic presidential voters. Obama’s accurate claim that he has won “more states” and “more pledged delegates” must be tempered with the fact that his tally, assuming he wins upcoming races in South Dakota and Montana, will include eleven of the twelve most “over- represented” states on a one-person, one-vote standard. Rhode Island is the only such state in the Clinton column. Of the twelve most “under-represented,” Obama has won only four.</blockquote>


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airwon

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